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MF
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Matt Flynn
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Updated Aug 3, 2020
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00:01 - 00:01
Hello, everyone.
00:02 - 00:06
And welcome to the discussion on aging workforces.
00:07 - 00:11
I'm using a new medium to reach out to you
00:11 - 00:16
all. I'm using Prezi and tthe e ah, lecture is
00:16 - 00:20
divided into 3 15 minute presentations.
00:22 - 00:26
First, we'll talk a little bit about aging workforces.
00:27 - 00:28
Ah, and why?
00:29 - 00:34
Ah, it's an issue which concerns government, employers and other
00:35 - 00:38
stakeholders. So we'll talk a little bit about how demographics
00:39 - 00:43
are changing age demographics are changing around the world.
00:44 - 00:46
Ah, second, we'll talk a little bit about the public
00:47 - 00:52
policies behind this s o how have government Ah, and
00:52 - 00:54
other institutions responded to this.
00:55 - 00:58
And what pressures did they put on organizations to adopt
00:59 - 01:03
certain approaches to managing the age profile of their workplaces?
01:04 - 01:08
And then finally, we'll talk a little bit about the
01:08 - 01:15
HRM implications and five broad areas of HR policy which
01:15 - 01:17
are affected by aged workforces.
01:18 - 01:21
So just click on the 1st 1 of thes to
01:21 - 01:25
talk a little bit about aging workforces, eso, the aims
01:25 - 01:29
and objectives off the discussion today is first to understand
01:30 - 01:33
the reasons behind the demographic challenge.
01:33 - 01:36
So I'll talk talk through that a little bit.
01:37 - 01:42
Ah, in this presentation Ah, how different types of pension
01:43 - 01:48
systems. Ah, and employment regimes then govern the approach that
01:49 - 01:54
organizations might take the age implications for the main stakeholders.
01:56 - 02:01
Ah, in work government businesses and individual workers.
02:02 - 02:04
Ah, And then finally, some discussion about some of the
02:05 - 02:07
practical solutions toothy issue.
02:08 - 02:12
So if we start off with the first question is
02:12 - 02:14
toe, why is age diversity?
02:15 - 02:16
Ah, an important issue.
02:17 - 02:21
Ah, well, demographic age demographics are changing and they've been
02:21 - 02:23
changing for quite a long time.
02:24 - 02:27
Ah, this is partly due to the fact that families
02:27 - 02:31
are ah becoming smaller over time.
02:31 - 02:35
Ah, people are having fewer Children Ah, than they have
02:36 - 02:36
in the past.
02:36 - 02:39
But mostly it's about people living longer.
02:40 - 02:43
Ah, this is in many ways, a good news story.
02:43 - 02:45
It reflects the fact that people are living not only
02:46 - 02:49
longer lives and before, but healthier lives.
02:50 - 02:54
Ah, So whereas maybe about 30 40 years ago, the
02:54 - 02:57
process effect of working ah, in tow one sixties and
02:58 - 03:01
seventies Ah, was something that sense sounded to be quite
03:02 - 03:07
a dismal Ah um future for many people, for many
03:07 - 03:10
now, uh, who are in the kind of jobs that
03:10 - 03:13
where they might be able to ah, stay economically active
03:14 - 03:15
is a little bit more of a positive.
03:16 - 03:18
Um ah, prospect.
03:19 - 03:22
There have been many surveys which have been carried out
03:22 - 03:26
of older workers, which suggests that so long as some
03:26 - 03:29
adjustment can be made to their work, the kind of
03:29 - 03:34
work that they're doing their working hours, um, the activities
03:35 - 03:37
behind this than most people would be willing to consider
03:38 - 03:38
some delay.
03:39 - 03:40
Ah, in their retirement.
03:41 - 03:43
Of course, that's not the case with everybody.
03:43 - 03:45
You still have a lot of people who are in
03:45 - 03:49
very physically demanding difficult jobs and a lot of people
03:50 - 03:52
who are in work longer because they have to.
03:52 - 03:55
They don't have enough, ah, financial savings.
03:55 - 03:58
They don't have a good enough pension to retire, and
03:59 - 04:00
therefore they're compelled toe work longer.
04:02 - 04:05
They're also big issues when it comes to ah, the
04:05 - 04:09
impact on businesses, especially if the part of the population,
04:10 - 04:15
which is economically inactive ah, starts to starts to grow.
04:15 - 04:18
And, of course, if people are living longer, but retirement
04:19 - 04:23
ages stay where they are than, ah, you'll see a
04:23 - 04:27
gradual growth in the economically inactive, uh, part of the
04:27 - 04:31
population. This has very big implications for businesses in the
04:31 - 04:35
state in terms of, for example, the affordability and the
04:35 - 04:39
sustainability of pension systems, but also very big labor market
04:40 - 04:41
implications as well.
04:41 - 04:47
Ah, if more people are leaving work permanently, they than
04:47 - 04:50
employers might face, for example, skill shortages.
04:51 - 04:52
Ah, and labor shortages.
04:53 - 04:56
And you you are already seen Ah, in certain sectors
04:57 - 05:03
Ah, that impact Ah, organizations desperate to find people toe
05:03 - 05:06
work in their businesses because there just aren't enough that
05:06 - 05:09
people, uh, who are available for recruitment.
05:11 - 05:13
Ah, finally there some issues when it comes to intergenerational
05:15 - 05:19
fairness, trying to find a good equilibrium to balance the
05:20 - 05:23
interests of older workers and younger workers, both in terms
05:24 - 05:27
of a fair ah, retirement and pension system.
05:28 - 05:33
Ah, If people are retiring too early, then there might
05:33 - 05:36
be, Ah, young people might feel some pressure in some
05:37 - 05:39
burden in terms of how much they have to save
05:40 - 05:43
and how much they have to contribute to, ah, to
05:43 - 05:47
pension systems, but also in terms of intergenerational fairness, when
05:47 - 05:50
it comes toe work, if older workers air staying and
05:50 - 05:51
work longer.
05:52 - 05:54
Ah, what you don't want to see is a situation
05:54 - 05:57
in which they're crowding out young people and young people
05:58 - 06:03
don't have access to high quality, secure work which everybody
06:04 - 06:06
older, younger might want.
06:09 - 06:13
So what causes population changes will, of course, longer lives.
06:14 - 06:16
Ah, has a very big impact.
06:17 - 06:19
Ah, fertility has an impact as well.
06:20 - 06:23
Ah, there are also some social factors such as migration
06:24 - 06:27
Ah, and changes in family composition.
06:28 - 06:31
Ah, you could see in very big countries forget like
06:32 - 06:33
like in China.
06:33 - 06:38
Ah, quite big differences in age profiles different parts of
06:39 - 06:42
the country because young people are moving to where the
06:42 - 06:43
jobs are.
06:43 - 06:47
Ah and um And And this means that in some
06:48 - 06:51
areas, like, say, the Shengjun area, uh, or in export
06:52 - 06:55
processing zones ah, you'll see quite a young profile.
06:56 - 07:00
And it's also reflected in institutions like ah, access to
07:00 - 07:00
health care.
07:01 - 07:03
It's an education Ah, and so forth.
07:04 - 07:07
You also see migration on an international scale.
07:08 - 07:11
Ah, and people moving between countries, which then has a
07:11 - 07:14
very big impact on the age profile, uh, of the
07:14 - 07:18
countries where people leave and people are and countries where
07:18 - 07:19
people are going to.
07:20 - 07:24
So what's happening in terms of the profile off the
07:25 - 07:27
the demographic profile of the world?
07:28 - 07:31
Ah, well in ah Africa and Asia.
07:31 - 07:35
You see a very sharp incline in the number of
07:35 - 07:38
people. Ah, in these to contact continents.
07:39 - 07:43
Ah, Asia is a somewhat of a kill your situation
07:43 - 07:46
which will get onto a moment in a moment.
07:46 - 07:51
But Europe, North America Ah, and other parts of ah,
07:52 - 07:54
the western sphere, you see?
07:54 - 07:56
Ah, fairly study population.
07:58 - 07:59
Ah, and this exacerbates.
08:01 - 08:05
Ah, the ah changes in age composition because you don't
08:05 - 08:10
have as many young people Ah, entering the workforce toe
08:10 - 08:12
offset those who are going into retirement.
08:13 - 08:15
What's happening in Asia will, of course, that's a reflection
08:16 - 08:22
of, ah population change in China and the impact of
08:22 - 08:27
wth e one child policy on ah population numbers.
08:27 - 08:32
And even though ah, the one child policy has been
08:33 - 08:37
relaxed Ah, the impact of that relax ation isn't going
08:37 - 08:38
to they send in some time.
08:39 - 08:43
The implication, therefore, is that although China is a younger
08:44 - 08:49
ah age profile than Europe and ah, North America Ah,
08:50 - 08:53
it's it's aging at a much faster rate.
08:53 - 08:56
Ah, and it's coming to the period in which, uh,
08:56 - 09:00
something some measures will need to be taken.
09:00 - 09:05
Ah, much quicker than thin in, um in the American
09:06 - 09:09
North America and ah and Europe.
09:10 - 09:12
Ah, so you can also see some changes in age
09:13 - 09:16
profile in terms of short term changes such as, Ah,
09:17 - 09:22
the ah, the increase in fertility after World War Two.
09:23 - 09:28
Ah, what we call the baby boom generation reflects the
09:28 - 09:31
fact that a lot of, ah, there was an increase
09:31 - 09:35
in ah in birth rates in the 19 fifties.
09:36 - 09:39
In the 19 seventies and 19 eighties, this had a
09:39 - 09:42
positive economic impact because you had more people who were
09:43 - 09:46
entering ah, the workforce and were able to set sustained
09:46 - 09:51
a smaller ah, um ah, age demographic got population.
09:52 - 09:57
Now, of course, the baby boom generation are entering retirement
09:58 - 10:01
and you have a relatively smaller part of the population
10:02 - 10:05
which needs to sustain Ah ah, that group.
10:08 - 10:11
Sometimes we talk about this in terms of dependency ratios
10:12 - 10:17
in other words, the proportion of the economically inactive population
10:18 - 10:22
relative to the economically active part of the population.
10:23 - 10:27
Usually, we just define ah, the economically act tive ah,
10:28 - 10:34
population as between the ages of 15 and 65.
10:35 - 10:39
Although both sides can be adjusted a little bit based
10:40 - 10:44
on the education system of the country, the retirement age
10:44 - 10:45
and so forth.
10:45 - 10:46
And of course, there's some fluidity.
10:47 - 10:48
Um, both sends not everybody.
10:49 - 10:51
Even in a country where you have a mandatory retirement
10:52 - 10:56
age of, say, 65 you won't necessarily have everybody retiring
10:57 - 10:58
at exactly that age.
10:58 - 11:02
Ah, Now what you see here in this ah, in
11:03 - 11:05
this table this comes from the World Bank is that
11:05 - 11:11
there's a wide range of, um, dependency ratios around the
11:11 - 11:15
world. You have some countries like, say, Ethiopia that have
11:15 - 11:18
very high dependency ratios, but they reflect the fact that
11:19 - 11:21
it has, ah, very young population.
11:21 - 11:25
Families are still ah, relatively large.
11:25 - 11:30
So, um, the economically active part of population needs to,
11:30 - 11:34
um provide for a large number of Children.
11:35 - 11:38
But then you also have countries like, say, Japan, where
11:38 - 11:41
the youth population is relatively small.
11:41 - 11:44
But you have a lot of older people Ah, who
11:44 - 11:45
are in retirement.
11:46 - 11:49
Ah, who the economically active part of the population then
11:49 - 11:53
needs to provide for Ah, a lot of the other
11:53 - 11:55
countries are somewhere in between.
11:56 - 11:59
Of the United States, the u K ah, all European
12:00 - 12:02
countries are older populations.
12:04 - 12:07
Ah, and then you have some countries in which ah,
12:08 - 12:11
the economically active part of population is growing.
12:11 - 12:13
Ah, because families air getting smaller.
12:15 - 12:20
Most countries go through something that we call the demographic
12:21 - 12:26
window. This is the period in which countries move away
12:26 - 12:30
from the Ethiopian situation in which you've got ah, very
12:30 - 12:31
large young population.
12:32 - 12:35
Ah, and the economically active part of the population is
12:35 - 12:36
starting to grow.
12:37 - 12:40
Ah, so there's more people in the workforce than before.
12:41 - 12:44
Ah, eventually the country comes to a tipping point and
12:45 - 12:48
it starts to resemble something that's more similar to Japan.
12:49 - 12:52
In other words, ah, those who are in retirement are
12:52 - 12:53
starting to grow.
12:54 - 12:57
That period in between is known as the demographic window.
12:58 - 13:02
It's that period of time in which businesses, government unions,
13:03 - 13:07
other stakeholders can start to prepare Ah, for an aging
13:08 - 13:11
population. Ah, it's often called a once in a lifetime
13:12 - 13:17
opportunity because barring some catastrophic ah currents in the country
13:18 - 13:23
ah population the the the older population will continue to
13:23 - 13:24
grow Ah, to offend infinity.
13:25 - 13:29
Ah, And without some changes in public policies such as
13:29 - 13:34
retirement ages, so too will the economically inactive ah, part
13:34 - 13:35
of the population.
13:37 - 13:38
Ah, when did countries go through?
13:39 - 13:42
Ah, that demographic window Well for Europe in North America.
13:43 - 13:45
It happened before they realized that there was a demographic
13:46 - 13:49
issue. Ah, as well Talk about in the next section.
13:50 - 13:53
Ah, in Western Europe, up until the turn of the
13:53 - 13:58
millennium Ah, government and employers had an early retirement culture.
13:59 - 14:01
North America, Not so much.
14:02 - 14:03
Ah, you have relatively higher.
14:04 - 14:09
Ah, retirement ages and pension ages, but still Ah, it's
14:09 - 14:09
an aging.
14:10 - 14:10
It's an aging population.
14:12 - 14:16
And the implications, therefore, is that for a country going
14:16 - 14:18
through, ah, the demographic window.
14:18 - 14:22
It's that once in a lifetime period in which the
14:22 - 14:27
country can learn from the experiences of countries like Ah,
14:28 - 14:32
the United States and European countries to adopt ah HR
14:33 - 14:37
practices to prepare, prepare for aging workforces in the next
14:37 - 14:39
section will talk a little bit about that.
14:39 - 14:46
The public policy implications of, um, er of preparing for
14:46 - 14:48
those changes in age demographics
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