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The Syrian Crisis
Transcript of The Syrian Crisis
2. Syrian history in a nutshell
3. Origins and timeline of the conflict
4. Analysis of the opposition
5. Regional and other international actors
6. The nature of the fighting
7. The US role in the conflict
8. Possible future scenarios Quickfacts Total population: 22,457,336 (July 2013 est.) Ethnicity:
Kurds, Armenians and other 9,7% Religion:
Sunni Muslim 74%
Shi'a, Alawites, Druze 16%
Various christian denominations 10% Syrian History in a Nutshell 1516-1918 The Ottoman Empire era
1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement
1918 - 1946 French control/repeated involvement
1946 - 1963 Fragile Independence
1963 Ba'athist Party Coup
1970 Hafez al-Assad becomes President
1982 Hama Massacre
2000 Hafez al-Assad dies,Bashar al-Assad 'elected,' "Damascus Spring"
March 2011 First Arab Spring protests in Derea and Damascus Quickfacts GDP in 2011 (PPP): $107.6 billion
- Agriculture: 17%
- Industry: 16%
- Services: 67%
Per capita (PPP): $5,100
Inflation rate: 33,7%
Unemployment rate: 18% www.biography.com www.egyptianchronicles.blogspot.com www.wikipedia.org http://www.understandingwar.org http://geocurrents.info/geopolitics/syrias-ethno-religious-complexity-and-potential-turmoil https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sy.html www.wikipedia.org Timeline of the Crisis First Unrests 2011
February Opposition Organizes
Syria suspended from AL UN Security Council Resolution Vetoed 2011
October Kofi Annan Resigns
UN GA Resolution 2012
August Turkey Returns Border Fire
Arms Shipment Intercepted 2012
October US Recognizes Syrian National Coalition 2012
December http://globalvoicesonline.org "VITALY CHURKIN ( Russian Federation) said the bloodshed and violence in Syria must be ended immediately, adding that his country was taking direct action and planned to hold a meeting with President Bashar al-Assad on 7 February [...] The draft resolution voted down today sought to send an “unbalanced” message to Syria, he said, adding that it did not accurately reflect the situation there."
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2012/sc10536.doc.htm Free Syrian Army Established www.wikipedia.org www.wikipedia.org "The Assembly stressed that rapid progress on a political transition represented the “best opportunity” to resolve the 18-month-long crisis peacefully."
(http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2012/ga11266.doc.htm) www.washingtonpost.com www.etilaf.org Israeli Jets Strike in Syria 2013
January 2012-13 Death Toll Reaches 70, 000 CIA Allegedly Involved in an Arms Shipment Campaign 2013
February www.nytimes.com www.sbs.com.au www.nytimes.com www.economist.com Broader International Actors Arab League
no UN-sanctioned sanctions www.eia.org Rebels Gain Hold of al-Raqqa 2013
March Nature of the Fighting Ingenuity and Craft of the Rebels War Crimes "The report states that war crimes, including murder, extrajudicial killings and torture, and gross violations of international human rights, including unlawful killing, attacks against civilians and acts of sexual violence, have been committed in line with State policy, with indications of the involvement at the highest levels of the Government, as well as security and armed forces."
(www.un.org) Violation of Children's Right "Anti-Government armed groups, including the FSA, used children in support roles, such as assisting medical evacuations or as couriers. Five interviewees stated that the anti-Government armed groups used children under the age of 18 — and in one account, under 15 — as fighters."
(UN Human Rights Council Report) www.bbc.co.uk www.theatlantic.com US Interests in the Syrian Crisis 1. Limiting civilian casualties
2. Prevent jihadists from 'hijacking' the uprising
3. Countering Iranian regional influence
4. Preventing the use and proliferation of chemical and biological weapons
5. Limiting regional instability Analysis of the opposition The Syrian Opposition Founded: September 2011
Defected Syrian Armed Forces
Jihadist militants under its banner
Human rights abuses?
Funded by the Gulf states National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces Founded: September 2011
Dialogue with the government
Against international intervention
Not affiliated with the SNC Free Syrian Army (FSA) www.usatoday.net www.wikipedia.org (SNC) www.wikipedia.org Founded: October 2011
Challenged by other opposition groups
Trouble co-operating with the FSA
Not viewed as a visible leader for the opposition (Hilary Clinton) Founded: November 2012
Dependent on the SNC
Similar problems as the SNC National Co-ordination Committee (NCC) The Regional implications of the conflict (Syria) Lebanon Israel Iran www.123rf.com Turkey www.mapsof.net commons.wikimedia.org www.mapsof.net www.123rf.com Opposed the Assad-regime in 2011
Provided shelter for the opposition
Called for NATO assistance
Increased threat from the PKK Increased tension
Hezbollah increasingly more vulnerable Supports the fall of Assad
- Major blow to the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis
- Fears the consequences Supports the regime
Wants to maintain the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis
Fears international intervention Thank you. Questions? www.abc.net.au Refugees Possible Future Scenarios An Enduring Conflict and State Collapse Rebel vs. Rebel A Military Coup A Negotiated Solution Regional Spill-over War Imminent Regime Defeat Matej Jungwirth
Espen Stokke Origins of the Conflict Regional diffusion
Minority regime www.vg.no