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Futures of higher education: scenarios for 2016

Experimental materials for presentation.
by

Bryan Alexander

on 27 June 2012

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Transcript of Futures of higher education: scenarios for 2016

gaming is the world's leading culture industry
average age of a gamer is 50
campus library as game
points to reward traffic
metadata-eliciting games
Simulations
for policy
Cloud and
storage
ebooks
Videoconferencing
Copyright
Social
media
Government
Collaboration
tools
Semantic
Web
Gaming
School world
Collaboration
praxis
Scholarly
communication
Course
management
systems
ebook
usage
Professional
development
Digital
projects

Digital
Balkanization

The Long
Great
Recession

Gamified
World

The Wide
Open World

Augmentation
Nation

The global
digital
environment

Education
in 2016:
five scenarios

i*, Google, Microsoft,
Nokia, Amazon, RIM
HTML 5 world
Flash is scarce
content in silos
competing standards
rare interoperability
DRM is
a default
ACTA
world
Hotel California
servers
more $ than print
in 2014
content all
divided and supported
by platform
shortener cartel
broken up
YASN as
default
Intellipedia
model
Government 2.0
beats silos
1/2 of nations: WWW
content control policies
1/4 also arrest
content producers
language gaps
remain huge
collaboration systems vendor-specific and platform-constrained
competing platforms
and projects
competing
device ecologies
vendor
lock-in
vendor-specific,
platform-constrained
always-on
stovepipes
parallel
specialties
Strong vendor
support
Google
Courses
proprietary
dbs
scholarly
silos
cyberinfrastructure
firms + nonprofits
vendor
prism
software struggle:
long-term vendor relationships
vs open source
6-10 year replacement
cycles
open content
consumption
general
More video feeds
and conferences
as travel drops
videoconference
meetings: default
slow to grow
much .edu + DIY
consumption +
marketing
human computing: pervasive
CAPTCHAs in email
social causes funding
European Living Earth Simulator
in play
Semantics grow
via new markup
by games
Wikileaks movement
as ongoing
global struggle
language gaps
have decreased
democratic
curation
real-time Web:
always on
Training through
MOOCs
Funding aimed at
skills training
assessing
content w/o
provenance
3d video,
powerful sound
the norm
visual search
object recog
face recog
hyperlinked
world of things
social objects:
Twittering fridge
AR media tools
widespread
sensor nets
gone global
gesture-based
interfaces: most
place as library
funding driven
by AR use data
Scenarios
3d printing across
the curriculum
geolocated scholarship
private and public
gaming booms
(people want to
be entertained)
Heavy IP protection driven as economic necessity
Parallel
channels
Rapid cycles of
malware and
attacks
Production in slump
adjuncts dominate
support funds low
Open source CMSes
in majority
declining # of classes
Diverse
scholarly
forms
Crowdsourced
review
authorship
clear
authorship
unclear
Policy battles over AR
content and access
interoperability
a challenge
Mostly certification
or platform-specific
Most students entering college for the first time this fall were born in 1998.
The average first-year identified with
a tech brand in elementary school.
The Great Recession hit
when they were in 4th grade.
The majority of first-years
have had some formal
learning in games.
The majority of first-years
have had at least one PLE
in high school or before.
Real-world objects
have had digital tags
since elementary school.
human computing is pervasive
gold farming
Mechanical Turks
Game development,
game-built content
is commonplace
Project management
culture
BB fighting
antitrust
BB across
campus
Languages:
AR translation
gaming, virtual world
environments used
inter-cloud
interoperability
consumer clouds
for cost savings
clouds replace staff
competition drives
growing adoption...
Persistent user
profiles, media
SAP Streamwork,
Google Wave 2.0,
Mozilla Raindrop
Hardware: disposables
vs long-term tinkering
...and persistent
fail whales
most projects include
crowdsourcing aspects
Semantic
Web
Professional
development
Hardware
ecosystems
Videoconferencing
Cloud and
storage
Collaboration
tools
ebooks
Collaboration
praxis
Formats
and standards
Government
Social
media
Gaming
Digital
projects

Software
ecosystems
Copyright
Scholarly
communication
scholarly
simulations
mainstreamed
geolocated
LMS content
games attached
to music, movies,
books; nonfiction
Funding aimed
at re-use
IT support
What is
literacy?
Funding
emphasis
Interfaces
separate +
translate
LMSes outsourced
ebooks mainstreamed
distance learning
training: default
Project management
culture
Help functions
off-site
ebook formats
diverse
PLE beats LMS
Web-centric
collaboration
assess
simulation
content
LMSes gamified
Used
mostly as document
repositories
ebooks sold from
inside games
Socialization
gamified
Simulation
training
booming

IT support
What is
literacy?
ebook
usage
course
management
systems
ebook content
geolocated

Funding
emphasis
collaborate
anywhere
student work
build into
campus layers
3d video,
powerful sound
the norm
Full transcript