**Theoretical Probability**

vs.

Relative Frequency

vs.

Relative Frequency

Think About It.

You're not going to flip an actual coin but you are going to use the following link which will simulate flipping a coin for the think about it.

http://www.virtualcointoss.com/

What did you notice ??

Write down what you noticed, Mr. Pierre will be walking by to see what you have written.

Relative Frequency

After an experiment has been conducted, we measure the results in the form of relative frequency. This can be expressed as a ratio of successes to total possible outcomes, or as a percentage or a decimal.

By the Law of Large Numbers, the greater the number of trials in a probability experiment (like flipping the coin), the more the relative frequency of an experiment will approach the theoretical probability.

**Exit Ticket**

Theoretical Probability

Final CFU

After you have shown Mr. Pierre your work watch the video.

Independent Practice

Move onto the Independent Practice now.

Any work you don't finish will be your

homework

for the weekend.

Example 1

So yesterday you were introduced to probability. Here are the vocabulary words that you need to know.

For example one you will need to go to the following link:

http://illuminations.nctm.org/Activity.aspx?id=3537

If you need help silently raise your hand and Mr. Pierre will assist you.

Vocabulary

Probability is the likelihood that a chance event will occur. We can think of it as a way of assigning numbers to a prediction.

Theoretical probability is the prediction of the likelihood of a success, before the probability experiment has occurred

Uniform probability is a probability experiment in which all outcomes are equally likely to occur (e.g. flipping a coin, because the coin is equally likely to land on heads and tails).

Check For Understanding

Complete the following problems. When you've finished raise your hand so that Mr. Pierre can check your work before moving onto the Independent Practice.

**Friday,**

Feb. 7th, 2014

Feb. 7th, 2014

Probability can be in either fraction, decimal, or percent form.

It can’t be less than 0 (or 0%) or greater than 1 (or 100%). Probability is often expressed as a probability model, which is the mathematical notation that expresses the probability of an event:

P(event occurring) = part/whole, in fraction, decimal, or percent form

An event that is certain has a probability of 1 or 100%. An event that is impossible has a probability of 0 or 0%.

An event that is equally likely to occur or not occur has a probability of 0.5 or 50%.

An outcome is the result of an action.

In probability, an outcome is the result of an experiment.

An event is a particular outcome or group of outcomes.

The sample space is the collection of all possible outcomes in a probability experiment. Sample space is a set and represented with brackets.

A success is the specific outcome that you are measuring in the experiment

Probability

Theoretical Probability

Uniform Probability

Event

Outcome

Sample Space

Success

Relative Frequency

vs.

Theoretical Probability

**Now for the**

Exit

Ticket

Exit

Ticket