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Renewable Energy in the South African energy landscape

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by

Sarah Corry

on 20 February 2014

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Transcript of Renewable Energy in the South African energy landscape

Highest growth in Clean Energy Investment in the world since 2012
Renewable Energy in the South African Energy Landscape
In 2008 demand outstripped supply, as the price manipulation finally caught up
South Africa - the emissions exception
9th largest coal reserves
13th largest CO2 emissions
Utilise 94% of coal for electricity
Liquid fuel from coal is used for transport
79% of our GHG come from the energy sector (2000)
Consumers
Sources and Generation
Suppliers
NERSA (National Energy regulator of South Africa)
secures supply
Demand Side Management
Tax incentives and deductions for industry
Incentives for municipalities to reduce consumption
TV campaign
Monitoring and Evaluation
Policy evaluation
Potential Carbon Tax (R120 p/t/Co2e)
Energy Efficiency
18 GWh of RE by 2030 (8.4 from Solar)
1 million solar water heaters installed

Pressure points
Water shortages
Increases in gas and RE
No cheap capital for construction
UK+US won’t fund coal anymore
We haven’t accounted for risk in the system (2008)
Renewable Energy
Progress
In 2012 govt opens up bidding to RE contracts
$5.5 billion since 2012 since govt opened bidding for Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers
260 000 solar water heaters installed since 1998
Google invested $12 million (R103 m) Jasper Power Project (96MW SPV in Northern Cape Province
SA “most attractive emerging PV market” (Frost+Sullivan 2012)
Macroeconomic climate
Market size potential
Profitability
Pipeline maturity
Alternatives
Policy Mechanisms
Independent private investment
Civil society engagement
Prevent corruption and indifference in energy sector
Distribute burden on energy sector (particularly to other energy intensive sectors)
Tax policy and incentives: Initial investment grants, voluntary infrastructure upgrades (as in EU)
Careful evaluation of existing policy

Policy Recommendations
The South African Case
75% electrification (highest in S. Saharan Africa)
12.5 million have no access in rural areas mostly
How can Per Capita emissions be 2x world average?
Coal
Gold
Diamonds
Platinum
Coal Industry gets special treatment:
Apartheid government under fuel sanctions but had energy intensive mining sector
Must fuel post-war boom
Cheap labour
Little rural electrification
Sasol makes coal into petrol
Post-apartheid government had an obligation to electrify rural, still had obligations for cheap energy in mining industry,
The South African Landscape
Trade
1% of sales of energy in SA are exports
We’re the 5th largest exporter of coal in World
Import small percentage of natural gas imported from Mozambique and Namibia
Southern African Power Pool
Eskom
State owned, public utility
Eskom responsible for 95% of distribution
42000 MW generating capacity (44 GW)
34200 MW at peak capacity
Often runs at peak, little time for maintenance
Independent Power Provider
IPSA (UK) gas fired powerplant – regulatory barriers

Politics of Coal
Political class investments in coal
Dirty coal
Environmental concerns: ground water pollution, air pollution, agricultural and wetland disruption, scarcity of water resources

Security of Supply
NERSA
27.5 increase for 2008/2009
approved total tariff increases 16% annually for next 3 years

Electricity Consumption

grew 20% between 2000 – 2010
Capacity increased 10% between 2000 - 2010
Load Shedding
2008
Gold, diamond, platinum and coal had to shut down for 1 week
other businesses affected too
Capacity Rush
: New Power Plants, Re-commissioning power plants
Options
Challenges
Coal Dependence
Pathway Lock in
'Dogma' of vested interests
Indifference

Solar - 1000 MW planned
Additional 200 CSP planned
Western half of SA sunny and clear most of the year
SA has 4.5 – 6.5 kWh/m²
Wind - 1000MW planned
Windy City and Cape of Storms
coastal wind potential on almost enter coastline
Potential of 3 GW addition energy production
Hydro
Some potential, already high demand (agri and mining)
Biomass
High potential from timber industry waste and bagasse
Wave to expensive
Alternatives
Considerations
Power (Energy) dynamics
SA's deliberative politics
Regulatory signals have been confusing
Avoid latent conflict and potential escalation

Krupa & Burch (2011) recommend:
Shift or structural change needed
Normative policies, not practical. Eskom has made many announcement, but continues to hold its grip on the energy sector

“Regulations have publicly indicated a preference for renewable generation, yet numerous respondents noted that adequate binding agreements have yet to be implemented”
energy.gov.za
Geni.org
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=SF
Integrated Resource Plan - doe-irp.co.za
Krupa, J., & Burch, S. (2011). A new energy future for South Africa: The political ecology of South African renewable energy. Energy Policy, 39(10), 6254-6261.
Pegels, A. (2010). Renewable energy in South Africa: Potentials, barriers and options for support. Energy policy, 38(9), 4945-4954.
PV-tech.org
http://urbanearth.co.za/articles/260-000-solar-water-heaters-installed-2008
http://www.iea.org/policiesandmeasures/renewableenergy/?country=South%20Africa

References
Targets
Current Policy
Feed-in tariff and subsidies have ended (economic, policy and fiscal incentives)
Biofuels regulation
Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Program
Many ‘Strategic Visions’ and ‘Strategic Planning’
Voluntary I-B-SA scheme commitments
Full transcript