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Election Black Jack
Transcript of Election Black Jack
The easiest option… in theory. The two parties will easily get more than 326 seats between them. But they disagree on three big issues - Scottish independence; whether we keep Britain’s nuclear deterrent; and austerity. The Labour leader, Ed Miliband, has also categorically ruled out forming a government with them.
Also unlikely – but mainly because of the maths. Labour are expected to win about 280 seats – but the Lib Dems are likely to secure only about 20-30. That leaves any coalition well short of the mark.
An outright Tory win is very unlikely. They weren’t popular enough to win outright last time, and no government has increased its share of the vote from one election to the next since 1955. David Cameron will be hoping for some last-gasp votes, but the odds are stacked against him.
That means different parties will almost certainly need to try and club together to get the 326 MPs they need to form a government.
Five more years of what we have now? That’s the second most likely option. The Tories might sneak anything up to 290 seats, but that would mean the Lib Dems need to overperform. There are other problems. After five years of coalition, many Lib Dems are sick of the Tories and don’t want to get back into bed with them.
To win the general election
on 7 May, Labour or the
Conservatives need to win
326 seats to put the result
beyond any doubt. The polls
tell us it’s very unlikely to happen.
Liberal Democrats: 500/1
Green party: 500/1
No overall majority (hung parliament): 1/8
Liberal Democrat: 500/1
Labour majority: 33/1
Labour/SNP coalition: 11/1
Labour/Lib Dem coalition: 9/1
Conservative/Lib Dem coalition: 7/2
Conservative majority: 6/1
This is unlikely. Although Labour look set to do well in England, they are going to get hammered in Scotland and will struggle to get anywhere near the 326 MPs they need.