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Simulating I-131 pathways in the waters from Fukushima to Kanto

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Amelia Lee Zhi Yi

on 17 June 2015

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Transcript of Simulating I-131 pathways in the waters from Fukushima to Kanto

Earthquake off Sanriku(三陸) at 14:46, March 11, 2011
Largest earthquake thus far in Japan
4th largest in the world after 1900

Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare (MHLW), 2012
Fri, March 11
A Midterm Presentation by Amelia Lee Zhi Yi for the Graduate Program in Environmental Sciences, 01/26/2015
Thesis Supervisor: Taikan Oki Sensei ; Co-Supervisors: Matsuo Motoyuki Sensei & Hisashi Nakamura Sensei

Simulating I-131 pathways in the waters from
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), 2013
Unit 1 Reactor
Hydrogen Explosion
TEPCO, 2011
TEPCO, 2011
Unit 3 Reactor
TEPCO, 2011
Spent fuel pool exposed (Unit 2)
Unit 2 & 4 Reactor
Radiation Spike
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 2011; CNN, 2011; TEPCO(a,b,c), 2011
Background: Great East Japan Earthquake and FDNPP Accident
Monitored Radioactive Concentration
Fallout Mechanisms
How bad is it? Effects of Iodine in drinking water
17 & 19 Mar, 2011
5 Apr, 2011
29 Apr, 2011
18 May, 2011
26 May, 2011
31 May, 2011
2 July, 2011
MEXTa, 2011
JAEA, 2011
MHLWb, 2011
Morino et al, 2011
11-30 March, 2011 using a chemical transport model (CMAQ)
Modeled Radioactive Concentration
Chino et al, 2011
12 March- 5 April Preliminary Emission Estimation using Reverse Estimation
Wet deposition from IsoRSM tend to be finer simulated than dry deposition, sees more spread than dry deposition. Perhaps because it is related to rain.
Research Topic and Motivation
~20% Fallout
~80% Fallout
Yasunari et al., 2011; Chino et al., 2011; Yoshida & Kanda, 2012; Aoyama et al., 2012; Aoyama et al., ND
Estimated I131 Release = 150 PBq
Estimated Cs137 Release = 13 PBq
3) To simulate and provide I131 information that was otherwise unattainable.
To have an "alert system". WTPs can properly manage water resources should another accident happen.
1) To develop model simulating I131 from Fallout to Water Treatment Plant.
Immediately after accident
Thyroid doses and health risks from consuming Iodine
Murakami and Oki, 2012
Adult thyroid equivalent dose (18 March 2011- 20 March 2011) = 0.13 mSv
(21 March 2011-20 March 2012) = 0.42 mSv
56x more per day
Why are we especially interested in I131?
Little monitored/observed data
MEXT, 2011
Dominant radionuclide (alongside Cs134 and Cs137)
Larger potential risk
Hirose, 2011
MEXT, 2011
Goals of study
Currently there are few/none continuous studies simulating I131 radioactive transport from emission to WTP. Fill the gap.
I-131 was difficult to monitor due to short half-life (8 days) and damaged monitoring posts.
2) To better understand transport behavior of I131 for future predictions.
Previous Studies
Lacking a study that ties it all together and helps us to apply the knowledge we have!
Atmosphere to Land
Land to River
River to WTP
Isotopes-incorporated Regional Spectral Model
Incorporates isotopic and meteorological variations to investigate the mechanism of the isotopic variation and simulate meteorology and isotopic variation in a regional model
Yoshimura et al., 2008
Dry and Wet Deposition
Starting emission estimated by Chino et al.
Half-life Consideration
Saya et al., 2013
Simulation Results
Result Validation
Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and RunOff
Includes stable water isotopes and simulates physically reasonable isotopic fluxes and reservoirs at the ground
Yoshimura et al., 2006
Optimized to treat water and energy fluxes in a large-scale global simulation
Modified for energy and water flux partitioning
Five soil layers in which energy and water movements are treated with physical equations that consider freezing and condensation
Yoshimura et al., 2006
Preliminary Results and Discussions
IsoRSM (Dry+Wet) tends to simulate values that are higher than MEXT observed data.
With the exception of Ibaraki-ken, there is a good agreement between IsoRSM output and MEXT observed data.
Monitored Radioactive Concentration
2.5 types of validation data available
I131 in Rivers
I131 in WTP
Oura and Ebihara, 2012
Cs in Rivers
Ueda et al., 2013
Ohara et al., 2013
Atmosphere to Land
To study
Kosaka et al., 2012
Future Work and Timeline
1. Output from IsoRSM
a. Half-life and normal map for Iodine

2. Validation of Output from IsoRSM
a. Collect and map MEXT data
b. Compare MEXT data IsoRSM data

3. Input into IsoMATSIRO
a. Regionalize IsoMATSIRO to Japan
b. Create energy flux graphs for IsoMATSIRO and compare with IsoJpnMATSIRO
c. Convert IsoRSM data (binary) to IsoJpnMATSIRO data (GTOOL)
d. I) Modify/create subroutine for atmosphere fallout & runoff
II)Take output of IsoMATSIRO and apply post processing to own model
e. Validate output from 3d and put into IsoTRIP

4. Input into IsoTRIP
a. Implement river scheme similar to CaMa
b. Validate output from IsoTRIP

Thank you for your kind attention!
Questions/comments are very welcome
Ikemoto & Magara, 2011
Why is this important?
Why Water Treatment Plants?
Fukushima to Kanto
Sea Wall Height: 10m
Plant Height: 10m
Tsunami Height: 13m
Fukushima Daiichi
Lipscy et al., 2013
Temporary loss of power
Sea wall breached by tsunami
Loss of reactor cooling capacity
Seawater injection line rendered unusable
Fire breaks out at (Unit 4)
Research Motivation and Goals
1) For intermittent period of time, large amounts of radionuclides are emitted into the atmosphere
2) Spread around via wind, to Fukushima and Kanto
3) Dry deposition occurs (via wind and gravity)
4) Wet deposition occurs in large quantities (via rain)
5) Wet and Dry deposited radionuclides are washed out into the river
6) Radionuclide in river reaches Water Treatment Plant and is detected
I-131 output from framework will assist in:
1) Understanding I-131 behavior and movement patterns

2) Attain past, present, and projected amounts of I-131 at any location

Provide little known information of I-131 post-FDNPP accident
Provide predictions of I-131 concentrations for use as consideration for water resource management in WTP
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