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Determining HR Demand

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Jadran MacLeod

on 23 July 2013

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Transcript of Determining HR Demand

Determining HR Demand
Agenda
Give each team five minutes to write down as many words (three letters or more) that they can make only using the letters in their names. Letters must adjoin each other in the grid, but do not have to be in a straight line.

When the time is up each team adds up their score.
3 or 4 letter words = 1 point
5 letter word = 2 points
6 letter word = 3 points
Delphi Technique
A process by which the forecasts and judgments of a selected group of experts are solicited and summarized in an attempt to determine the future HR demand
Key feature is that once a group of experts are selected, the experts do not meet face to face
Conclusion
4 Types of Qualitative Techniques used to forecast HR demand were presented
Differences between Delphi technique and Nominal Group Technique were mentioned
The advantages and disadvantages of both the Nominal Group and Delphi techniques were discussed
A practical example of how the Delphi technique was applied in an HR context was explained
Finally, to ensure knowledge transfer, a test was given
1) Icebreaker - Name Grid
2) Introduction to Determining HR Demand
3) Learning Objectives
4) 4 Methods of Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
5) Advantages and Disadvantages of Nominal Group Technique and Delphi Technique Activity
6) Practical Example of Delphi Technique in HR
7) Evaluation Questions
8) Conclusion- Refreshments Provided
Name Grid
Learning Objectives

1. Our goal is to have this class understand the steps involved in executing the four qualitative HR demand methods through practical applications of these methods

2. Communicate and identify the advantages and disadvantages of using qualitative methods for determining HR demand by participating in a facilitation of qualitative forecasting techniques
Envelope/Scenario Planning
Projections, or multiple-predictor estimates, of future HR demand based on a variety of differing assumptions about how future organizational events will unfold
Scenarios are developed by having brainstorming sessions with line managers and HR managers
Impact Analysis
Forecasting method in which past trends are analyzed by a panel of experts to predict future HR demand
5. Issue the First- Round Questionnaire Summary and the Second Round of Questionnaires
4. Issue the
First-Round Questionnaire
6. Continue Issuing Questionnaires
3. Orient the
Experts
2. Identify
the Experts,
Terms and
Time Horizon
1. Define and Refine the
issue or
question
Advantages and Disadvantages of the Delphi Technique
Advantages
Disadvantages
Avoids many problems associated with face to face groups
Serves as a great equalizer
Can elicit valid feedback
Can effectively use experts who are drawn from widely dispersed geographical areas
Time and costs incurred when using alternative forecasting methods
Results cannot be validated statistically
Process is greatly dependent on the individual knowledge and commitment
May lack sufficient expertise
Nominal Group Technique
Long-run forecasting technique utilizing expert assessments to reach consensus on an issue
Group meets face to face but only after individual demand estimates are determined
The demand estimate is agreed upon by secret vote of all group members in the last stage of the process
1. Define and Refine the issue or question and the relevant time horizon
2. Select the Experts
3. Issue the HR Demand Statement to the Experts
5. Meet Face
to Face
7. Vote Secretly
to Determine the Expert
Demand Assessment
7 STEPS TO IMPLEMENT NGT
4. Apply Expert Knowledge, State Assumptions, and Prepare an Estimate
6. Discuss the Demand
Estimates and Assumptions
Advantages and Disadvantages of the Nominal Group Technique
Advantages
Disadvantages
Effective for brain storming sessions to ensure all participants have an equal voice n the sessions
Provides highly reliable and valid qualitative data that is ranked by importance
Superior to information obtained from focus groups
Potential for 'groupthink'
Mentality of superiority and possible personality clashes
If experts are drawn from one specific field, their common professional training might guide them along a single line of inquiry
A Delphi Study on E-HRM: Future Directions - Study Overvue
Evaluation Questions
1) True or False. The Delphi Technique is performed in a face-to-face setting with experts in designated fields?

2) True or False. The Nominal Group Technique is the only type of method used in determining HR Demand?

3) True or False. The Delphi Technique and Nominal Group Technique should be the only two methods used in determining HR Demand?

4) True or False. The Delphi Technique has six steps in order to fully complete this method and all are pertinent to the completion of the forecasting method?

5) True or False. The Nominal Group Technique does not use questionnaires in its forecasting method?

Introduction
Chapter 6: Determining HR Demand
Importance of HR Demand Forecasting
Qualitative and Quantitative Methods
Two primary qualitative methods

Study about future developments in information and communication technology (ICT) and its implications for human resource management (HRM) using Delphi technique
24 experts (11 HR managers from 11 organizations, and 13 academics from 11 universities around Europe) with expertise in e-HRM systems
The first stage was labeled as the brainstorming phase, where respondents generated lists of relevant items by replying to research questions
The second round was the narrowing down phase, where respondents were asked to identify items which they considered to be most important from responses to stage one
During the third round experts ranked the five most important items based on round two rankings
A Delphi Study on E-HRM: Future Directions - Questions
Q1: What development(s) in ICT will influence HRM between now and the year 2015?
Q2: What implication(s) will these developments in ICT have for how HRM is organized/delivered in firms between now and the year 2015?
Q3: What implication(s) will these developments in ICT have for the role played by HR between now and the year 2015?
Q4: What implication(s) will these developments in ICT have for the kinds of knowledge and skills needed by HR professionals between now and the year 2015?
Q5: What implication(s) will these developments in ICT have for HRM in the context of multinational corporations between now and the year 2015?
Q6: Finally, please describe 1-3 unexpected ICT developments that might influence HRM between now and the year 2015?
A Delphi Study on E-HRM: Future Directions - Expert Opinion on Q1
Question 1
What development(s) in ICT will influence HRM between now and the year 2015?
Increased use of Web 2.0 (social media)
Increased use of mobile communication technology
Increased interaction between audio & visual technologies
Increased use of SaaS (software as a service)
A Delphi Study on E-HRM: Future Directions - Expert Opinion on Q4
Question 4
What implication(s) will these developments in ICT have for the kinds of knowledge and skills needed by HR professionals between now and the year 2015?
Knowledge of social networking, realizing importance of SN
Statistics & business analytics: insightful about sourcing
Capacity to handle all data that will become available
Combination of HR expertise with core IT literacy
HR professionals are consultants, need consultancy skills
A Delphi Study on E-HRM: Future Directions - Expert Opinion on Q6
Question 6
Finally, please describe 1-3 unexpected ICT developments that might influence HRM between now and the year 2015
Virtual job fairs will become common practice
Major ERP systems as in-house systems become history
Companies like Google begin to dominate
End of conventional job interviews. Recruiting via Skype
International standards for HR data
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