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TOK Math Presentation Poker

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on 31 May 2013

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Transcript of TOK Math Presentation Poker

Rosemary Chen
Jessica Shi
Allison Shum It's poker, yo. Emotions and Poker With reason: use probability and calculations to determine what the opponents have, as well as what the other opponents think they have, determine what kind of action is appropriate for the next move and therefore increase one’s chance of winning the game. Conclusion Texas Hold'em Poker! Community Rules and Instructions Hole cards Shared cards Pre-flop Pot Flop Turn River Showdown Or you can bluff And use your poker face The 10 Ranks of Hands 1. Royal Flush 2. Straight Flush 3. Quad 4. Full House 5. Flush 6. Straight 7. Three of a Kind 8. Two Pairs 9. One Pair 10. Highest Card The Kicker Probability in Reason Probability of Any Card 52 starting cards - one card = 1/52
Take away one card - next = 1/51
2652: total number of possible combinations of cards that can be picked
((4/52) x (3/51))
= (12/2652)
= (1/221)
= about 0.045% or 220:1 odds
One opponent: 85.3% chance to win
Two opponents: 73.4% chance to win
Ten opponents: 31.1% chance to win
All ten opponents have the same cards: each have 10% chance to win Suited Ace and King: 330:1 (0.003%) odds, less probable than double aces
Pair of 10’s or higher: 0.023% 43:1 higher odds than the suited AK or the AA
Pair of anything: 13/221 = 1:17, about 5.9% % of dealing a pair of hole cards (a pocket pair): 5.9%
% of dealing two suited cards of any number: 23.5%
% of dealing two consecutive cards (connected cards) : 15.7% THE GAME Player One Player Two Player Three Common assumptions of emotion's play in poker- tells and bluffs Dare bluffs
Attack bluffs
Sneak bluffs Understanding"level of thinking" and the "4 styles" can help a player read their opponents better 1st level thinking,
“What cards do I have?”
2nd Level of thinking,
“What does my opponents have?”
3rd Level of thinking
“What do they think I have?”
4th Level of thinking
“What do they think I think
they have?" Non-pairs pairing with at least 1 card on the flop = 32%, 3:1 odds
Two suited cards making a flush = 6.5%, 15:1 odds but two suited cards flopping a flush is 0.85%, 118:1 odds
A pair flopping a set (having a pair for hole cards and the same number on the pair on the flop) 12%, 8:1 odds
A pair flopping four of a kind .25%, 400:1 odds Tight passive
Loose passive
Tight aggressive
Loose aggressive 4 Types of Players Odds and Outs Odds: likelihood of winning through probability
Outs: cards that will improve a player’s hand after the flop (turn or river)
Odds are calculated through outs Rule of Four and Two Player counts number for cards to improve and make his hand better, multiplies number by 4 to calculate the probability of catching that card on turn/river
If player misses the draw, multiply numbers by 2 to find out the probability to fill hand on the river Pot Odds Proportion of the bet in relation to the size of the pot Compare pot odds to likeliness of hand improving
Pot odds are higher than the odds of making the hand better: call
If the pot odds are lower than the odds of bettering the hand: fold With emotion: determine the opponents’ hands by identifying the emotional responses that occur when one has a good or a bad hand, easier to calculate the probability of the next card and the probability of one winning the game.
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