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Transformational Technologies of the Singularity

Transformational Technologies of the Singularity

Cliff Stevens

on 12 May 2010

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Transcript of Transformational Technologies of the Singularity

Transformational Technologies
of the Singularity Exponential Advancements in Technology and
What It Means for You. The Singularity – “a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed.” Ray Kurzweil, author of ”The Singularity is Near” and Co-Founder of Singularity University "The future is here. 
It just isn't widely distributed yet." William Gibson, author of "Neuromancer" Audience Poll A Futurist Thinking Warm-up... Prefer Prothetics? End Aging? Merge With Machines? "It's actually unfair.  As tech advancements in prosthetics come along, amputees can exploit those improvements. They can get upgrades. A person with a natural body can't." Hugh Herr, Director of the Biomechatronics Group at the MIT Media Lab (lost both his legs below the knee in a Mount Washington climbing accident when he was 17)
"Last year, I went down to a clinic and met this lady who saw what I could do with my arm, and she said, 'I want one like that.'" Carrie Davis was born with one forearm missing and has 12 different hands, or "terminal devices," each designed for different tasks. Her favorite: the carbon-fiber-sheathed bionic hand (shown) from Touch Bionics. "I get a lot of attention walking into a room with i-Limb. I love it. It's bad-ass looking."
"BioTime, Inc. (NYSE Amex:BTIM), a biotechnology company... today announced the publication of a scientific paper...in the peer-reviewed journal Regenerative Medicine...demonstrating that the aging of human cells can be reversed...may have significant implications for the development of new classes of cell-based therapies targeting age-related degenerative disease." - March 16, 2010 press release - www.b2i.us The Mprize competition is an exciting and viable mid-term strategy to deliver on the Methuselah Foundation's mission of extending healthy human life. It directly accelerates the development of revolutionary new life extension therapies by awarding two cash prizes: one to the research team that breaks the world record for the oldest-ever mouse; and one to the team that develops the most successful late-onset rejuvenation.  The Mprize is a multi-million dollar prize to end the diseases of aging. - www.mprize.org Researchers from the Instituto de Microelectrónica de Barcelona IMB-CNM (CSIC), have found a way to implant minute silicon chips into living cells and use them as intracellular sensors. A typical human cell is the size of about 10 square micrometers which means that hundreds of today's smallest transistors could fit inside a single cell. If the current rate of miniaturization continues, by 2020 approximately 2,500 transistors – equivalent to microprocessors of the first generation of personal computers – could fit into the area of a typical living cell. The technology could significantly aid early detection of diseases and new cellular repair mechanisms.  The team published its findings "Intracellular Silicon Chips in Living Cells" in a recent issue of Small (Dec 21, 2009). Exponential Advancement and The Law of Accelerating Returns Specifically for information technology, the Kurzweil’s observed “Law of Accelerating Returns” means that the price performance, capacity and bandwidth are progressing at an increasingly exponential rate through multiple computing paradigm shifts:

1900’s – electromechanical
1930’s – relay
1940’s – vacuum tube
1960’s – transistor
1970’ – integrated circuit Ray Kurzweil explains this at TED 2005... GRIN:
Robotics & AI
Information Technology
Information Technology
gr - I - n yr 2000
yr 2010 Trends & Expected Breakthroughs in IT Energy efficiency Nonvolatile memory storage Silicon photonics Biological computing 3D processor architecture Augmented reality Ubiquitous embedded intelligence Cloud and Mobile computing Immersive interfaces Infinite storage Quantum computing Robotics and Artificial Intelligence
g - R - in AI's Purpose = Amplifer of Human Intelligence Augment human skills Improve accuracy and consistency Accelerate process timing Solving complex problems Expand the range of the possible Decrease costs Managing institutional knowledge Robotics - let's see some! Here's Fast Robot and Big Dog...
(notice life-like articulation, tactile control and sensory feedback) Here's Human-like Robotic
Anatomy, Mouth and Expression The Golden Chalice = AGI
"Artificial General Intelligence" or "Strong AI" Peter Voss explains... Singularity University (SU) is an interdisciplinary university whose mission is to assemble, educate and inspire a cadre of leaders who strive to understand and facilitate the development of exponentially advancing technologies in order to address humanity’s grand challenges. Corporate Founders Dr. Ray Kurzweil, Co-Founder, Chancellor & Trustee of SU
One of the world’s leading inventors, thinkers, and futurists, with a twenty-year track record of accurate predictions.
Selected as one of the top entrepreneurs by Inc. magazine, which describes him as the “rightful heir to Thomas Edison.”
Pioneer in the fields of optical character recognition (OCR), text-to-speech synthesis, speech recognition technology, and electronic keyboard instruments.
Author of several books on health, artificial intelligence, the technological singularity, and futurism, including the best-selling "The Singularity Is Near".
In 2002, Dr. Kurzweil was inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame, established by the U.S. Patent Office.
He received the $500,000 Lemelson-MIT Prize, the nation’s largest award in invention and innovation.
Received the 1999 National Medal of Technology, the nation’s highest honor in technology, from President Clinton in a White House ceremony.
Has received thirteen honorary Doctorates and honors from three U.S. presidents. Dr. Peter H. Diamandis, Co-Founder & Chairman, SU
Chairman and CEO of the X PRIZE Foundation, which awarded the $10,000,000 Ansari X PRIZE for private spaceflight. The Foundation is focused on developing large incentive prizes to bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity in fields such as Genomics, Automotive, Education, Medicine, Energy, and Social arenas.
Co-Founder and Managing Director of Space Adventures, the only private company to send private citizens to the Int’l Space Station (the 7th customer flies in March 2009) aboard the Soyuz. Space Adventures also operates a commercial weightless flight operation, having flown over 7,000 members of the public, most famously Professor Stephen Hawking in 2007.
Co-Founder of the Rocket Racing League and Co-Founder/Trustee of the International Space University.
He attended MIT, where he received his undergraduate degree in molecular genetics and graduate degree in aerospace engineering. After MIT, he attended Harvard Medical School, where he received his M.D. In 2005 he has was also awarded an honorary Doctorate from the International Space University. NASA Ames Research Park
Moffett Field, Mountain View
California Founder and CEO of Adaptive A.I. Inc - entrepreneur, inventor, engineer, scientist and futurist Genomics
(Biotechnology, Synthetic Biology, Genetic Engineering)
G - rin Personal genomes are approaching $1,000 Genographic Project
$100 for 0.00001% genome
via cheek swab 23andMe.com
$500 for 0.02% genome
via spit As the costs of DNA sequencing drop…
… a consumer market emerges. Willow Garage develops hardware and open source software for personal robotics applications. DIYbio is an organization that aims to help make biology a worthwhile pursuit for citizen scientists, amateur biologists, and DIY biological engineers who value openness and safety. We’re something new in the cancer research world: an open source biotechnology venture that is member-owned and operated and not-for-profit. We are working to create individualized therapies for breast cancer – also known as “personalized medicine”. Our mission is to build a new drug development pipeline able to produce effective therapies faster for less money, without compromising safety. Nanotechnology
Atom-Scale ("Nano") Materials & Molecular Machines
gri - N

Economically arranging atoms in most
of the ways permitted by physical law.
Xenon atoms on nickel Positioning single atoms with a
scanning tunnelling microscope What to build? Respirocytes
… DNA Origami Potential Products of Nanofactories:
Agriculture General Trends and Characteristics of Technological Advancements
Leading Us to the Singularity

Dispersion & Ubiquity & Decentralization
Connectedness (Social!)
DIY & Open-ness
Biological Design/Mimicry
Free (nformation wants to be…)
Atoms are the new bits
Accelerating iteration
Why Does This Matter?

$#!T Happens!  We think linearly, but need to think exponentially

More types of people need to be in the conversation

Unintended consequences and disruptions of our creations

First time humans will be genetically self-evolving

First "known" time human intelligence will be superseded
Implications for Society, Culture, and Humanity

A Tale of Three (Possible) Futures:

Promise (“Heaven”)

Peril (“Hell”)

Prevail (“Muddle Through It) How to Use What You've Learned?

Be Good
Be Open
Be Decisive Thank you!
Cliff Stevens
MyOwnITGuy, Inc.
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