Loading presentation...

Present Remotely

Send the link below via email or IM

Copy

Present to your audience

Start remote presentation

  • Invited audience members will follow you as you navigate and present
  • People invited to a presentation do not need a Prezi account
  • This link expires 10 minutes after you close the presentation
  • A maximum of 30 users can follow your presentation
  • Learn more about this feature in our knowledge base article

Do you really want to delete this prezi?

Neither you, nor the coeditors you shared it with will be able to recover it again.

DeleteCancel

Make your likes visible on Facebook?

Connect your Facebook account to Prezi and let your likes appear on your timeline.
You can change this under Settings & Account at any time.

No, thanks

International Actuarial Association

No description
by

Alex Zhavoronkov

on 18 September 2014

Comments (0)

Please log in to add your comment.

Report abuse

Transcript of International Actuarial Association

Alex Zhavoronkov, PhD
The Biogerontology Research Foundation
From Biomedical Advances to Longer Lifespans: Prepare,
Participate and Profit


Head of the Regenerative Medicine Laboratory and Chief Scientist, Bioinformatics Laboratory
Federal Research and Clinical Center for Pediatric Hematology, Oncology and Immunology
www.fnkc.ru
Director, Trustee
The Biogerontology Research Foundation, UK
www.bg-rf.org.uk
Project Manager
The International Aging Research Portfolio
www.AgingPortfolio.Org
Co-Founder, Chief Thought Architect
NeuroG
www.NeuroG.com
Co-Founder, VP Drug Discovery
First Oncology Research
and Advisory Center
www.ponkc.com
Co-Founder
Galt Advanced Technology
Company
Co-founder
Mediox, Inc
www.mediox.com
Co-founder, CEO
In Silico Medicine, Baltimore, USA
www.insilicomedicine.com
Co-founder, VP Drug Discovery
Pathway Pharmaceuticals, Hong Kong
www.pathwaypharmaceuticals.com
Co-founder
First Open Institute for Regenerative
Medicine for Young Scientists
www.facebook.com/groups/regen.med
Unfunded liabilities in the US may be more significant than we think (see Kotlikoff, Gokhale, Smetters, et al)

Most of these liabilities are based on Present Value of Future Payments and are dependent on life expectancy
US federal Fiscal Imbalance is over
$44.2 trillion
.

Social Security is about $7 trillion in present value, Medicare is $36.6 trillion of which part A (hospital insurance program) contributes $ 20.5 trillion and Part B (Supplementary medical insurance program) contributes around $16.1 trillion.
Gokhale and Smetters, 2003
N’tl Debt ~$17T
SoSec $15T-?
Healthcare
$45T-?
Retirement Age
e.g. 65
Age of Death
e.g. 85
Healthy
Productive age
e.g. 75
Rejuvenation Rate
Non-Rejuvenating
Biomedical Progress
Rate
Biomedical Progress Rate
The economy will grow when RR>NRBPR
and/or the retirement age in increasing faster than NRBPR - RR
Questions?

Alex Zhavoronkov, PhD
alex@biogerontology.org
facebook.com/biogerontology
Main assumptions from:
- Overlapping Generations Model (Allais, 1947; Samuelson, 1958; Diamond, 1965) and
- Life-cycle Theory of Saving Behavior (Draft , 2004; Muto, Oda, & Sudo, 2012)
Most of the economists waving the "red flags" are
recommending:
- austerity measures (cut spending)
- increased transparency and accountability
- linking currency to physical assets (gold)
- increased spending
- market regulation and gov't intervention
- invest in environmental programs and clean energy
....
AGING PORTFOLIO
United States
Report.Nih.gov
Research.gov
Osti.gov
Nsf.gov
Canada
Nrc-cnrc.gc.ca
Genomereports.ca
Europe
Lifecompetence.eu
Biocompetence.eu
Cordis.europa.eu
Australia
Nhmrc.gov.au
Japan
Togodb.dbcls.jp
The database will integrate all available databases of aging research projects financed by the government, industry and academia.
Centralized Repository of Biomedical Publication Abstracts

MEDLINE (used by
PubMed.org
)
- almost 20 mil records
- title, abstract, authors, publication, ID, ...)
Centralized Database of Clinical Trials

www.ClinicalTrials.Gov
- almost 130,000 trials
?
Revenue
Clinical Data
Impact on Longevity
Healthy Lifespan Increase
Impact on Economy
Tracking the Longevity Dividend
Grants
Publications
Clinical Trials
AGING PORTFOLIO
RECOMMENDATIONS:
Accelerate aging research
Focus on regenerative medicine (prioritize basic science)
Proactively increase retirement age
Redirect research funding from projects focused on extending the "last mile" to projects advancing basic science and extending healthy productive lifespan
Refocus healthcare from "last mile" treatment to prevention and life-extension
Accelerate propagation of laboratory discoveries into clinic and mainstream use
Insurance-Pension Fund Partnerships
Design new financial instruments with underlying assets (IP and physical) that appreciate with gains longevity

Rejuvenation - Partial or complete restoration of the ability to perform useful work lost due to illness, injury or aging

RR = rejuvenation rate
- the rate at which the functions required to perform useful work that were lost to aging or disease are restored (e.g. eyesight due to glasses, LASIK, hip replacement, etc)

NRPR = non-rejuvenating rate of biotechnical progress
- the rate of biotechnical progress that increases lifespan, but does not return lost functions (e.g. late-stage treatments providing marginal life-extension but requiring lengthy clinical trials)

BMTPR = Biomedical science and technology progress rate
- the rate at which progress in science and technology and propagation of these technologies into the clinic extends the lifespan of the population. It is equal to the RR+NRPR
New Parameters
New model of economic growth:
Productive Lifespan Model
Employment
The ratio of working-age people to the total number of people of this age is described by the function:
S - a pension age, set by government;
P is the percentage of people who are not retired after reaching retirement age;
B - biological retirement age, after which the ability to do useful work is diminished
Mortality Rate
The productivity of workers is not constant and depends on age
Households aged j > S start to withdraw from the labor force, and receive public pension benefits from the social security system. So labor is:

Productivity and labor
Firm
There is a representative firm producing final goods with the Cobb-Douglas production technology. Firm maximizes its profit:
Kt - aggregate capital stock
Lt is aggregate labor input
Rt is the rental rate of private capital
At - total factor productivity
Households are assumed to be rational, have perfect foresight, the production technology is given by a standard Cobb-Douglas function, and the one-good economy is assumed to be closed. Bequest motives are not included.

Households maximize their expected lifetime utility (discounted by probability of dying in next period ):
Competitive Equilibrium
A competitive equilibrium consists of
Households maximize their lifetime utility
Firm maximize its profit
The productivity of workers depends on age, for example, the productivity of teens is lower, than the productivity of people in theirs 30s. This parameter also depends on rejuvenation rate (RR).
If we increase the period of active longevity, people will have more time to get education and learn new skills
Positive BMPTR will decrease mortality
RR<NRBPR
RR>NRBPR
mortality rate and BMPTR
Kudos to:

Maria Litovchenko
maria@labfairy.com
www.LabFairy.com
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
The Biogerontology Research Foundation, UK
Source: N.Kane et al, Pluripotent stem cell differentiation into vascular cells: A novel technology with promises for vascular re(generation), Pharmacology & Therapeutics, Volume 129, Issue 1, January 2011
Cheating Death and "curing aging":
- Regenerative Medicine
- Geroprotective Drugs
- Gene Therapy
- Damage Repair
- Advanced Diagnostics
- Minimizing Risks
- Addressing Skeletal Changes
Current Results in Regenerative Medicine:
-Cell therapies are already in the clinic (e.g. HSC, bone&cartilage)
- Advances in transplantation (skin, kidney, liver, lung, heart, etc)
- Artificial organs (prosthetics, pace makers, hearts, kidneys, etc)
- Synthetic-biologic implants
- 3D Bioprinting
- Laboratory-grown organs from patient's own cells
Coming Advances:
- Complex laboratory-grown organs from patient's own cells
- Patient- and tissue-specific cell therapies
- In vivo cell reprogramming and organ regeneration
- Gene therapy (including rejuvenating gene therapy)

Paolo Macchiarini & Augustinus Bader, 2011
But... where are the results?
Pre-clinical
Trials
Phases of Clinical
Trials
Clinical Propagation and
Mass Market Adoption
Prevention?
40+ Years for a Geroprotector to Reach the Market
- 122 - current lifespan record
- There is a very good chance that MOST people in the audience have a chance to live past 150

Major results in animals:
700% life extension in flies
1000% life extension in worms
~50% life extension in mice
yeast are almost immortal
but...
Longevity Expectations in the Employee Benefits Industry:
A Survey of International Employee Benefits Association Member Base
Full transcript