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OVERPOPULATION

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by

Shibika Suresh

on 20 October 2014

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Transcript of OVERPOPULATION

OVERPOPULATION
Danica was born in Philippines on October 31st, 2011.

The arrival of the seven billionth person - what does it mean to us?
The 7 billionth baby
Rejoice or rethink?
Overpopulation is an undesirable condition where the number of existing human population exceeds the carrying capacity of Earth.
Causes of Overpopulation
India and its tryst with Population Control
Can the Earth take so many of us?
A function of the number of individuals compared to the relevant resources, such as the water and essential nutrients they need to survive.
Overpopulation occurs when occurs when a population of a species exceeds the carrying capacity of its ecological niche.
Decline in Death Rate
Difference between the overall birth rate and death rate.
Factors that can increase the death rate for short periods of time.
The discovery of agriculture to sustain nutrition without hunting.
Better Medical Facilities
Population balance disturbed due to technological advancements.
Discoveries made by medical science to defeat a whole range of diseases.
Combining the increase in food supply with fewer means of mortality.
More Hands to Overcome Poverty
Psychological component
Poor people give birth to large families to make up for high infant mortality rate.
Families that have been through poverty, natural disasters or are simply in need of more hands to work.
Technological Advancement
in Fertility Treatment
Couples who cannot conceive naturally to undergo fertility treatment methods.
Effective medicines to increase the chance of conception.
Rise in the overall birth rate from earlier times.
Immigration
Prefer to move to places where better facilities are available.
Cities become overcrowded.
More demand for food, clothes, energy and homes.
Overall rise in density of population, giving rise to shortage of resources.
Lack of Family Planning
Large number of illiterate people, who live below poverty line.
Little or no knowledge about the importance of family planning.
Lack of ignorance prompting such people to avoid family planning.
Basic Concepts
Demographic Transition
Presentation by -
Ashni Dhaor
Bhagyashree Nair
K.V. Vaishnavi
Niyati Budhiraja
Shibika Suresh
Shreya Verma
Conclusion
Overpopulation
and World Problems

This theory explains the transformation of countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE
(CBR)
Number of births per year
Country's population
X
1000
Number of deaths per year
Country's population
X
1000
CRUDE DEATH RATE
(CDR)
*According to World Bank reports, in 2012 USA's crude birth rate was 13 births per thousand population, whereas India's was 21 births per thousand population.
The original demographic transition model has four stages, but additional stages have been proposed.
low
high
med
Birth and Death Rates
Stage
Population Size
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Model of Demographic Transition
1
2
3
4
STAGE ONE
The Pre-Industrial Stage
High birth rate and high death rate
Many people are born, but few live very long because of disease and a lack of hygiene.
STAGE TWO
The Industrial Revolution
Decrease in both birth and death rate; death rate falls more rapidly.
As death rates fall, birth rates remain high, resulting in a population explosion. Population growth is not due to increasing fertility, but to decreasing deaths.
STAGE THREE
Post-Industrial Revolution
Birth rates fall, eventually balancing the lower death rates.
As people live longer, it creates a higher rate of old-age dependency.
STAGE FOUR
Stabilization
Population growth stabilizes as birth rates fall into line with death rates.
As population growth slows, the large generations born during the previous stages put a growing economic burden on the smaller, younger working population.
During the period between the decline in youth dependency and rise in old-age dependency, there is a demographic window of opportunity called the
demographic dividend
DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND
The demographic window of opportunity
Fertility rates fall due to significant
reductions in child and infant mortality rates.
The population has
fewer dependents
(young and old) and a
higher proportion of working-age adults
, yielding increased economic growth.
There is an extension in average life expectancy that increases the portion of the population that is in the working age-group.
The drop in fertility rates is not immediate, the
dependency ratio
increases.
The dependency ratio declines dramatically leading to the demographic dividend.
The original demographic transition model has just four stages, but additional stages have been proposed.
Both more-fertile and less-fertile futures have been claimed as a Stage Five.
LIFE EXPECTANCY
AT BIRTH
Life expectancy at birth is a statistical average of the number of years a human is expected to live at the time of his/her birth; this will vary according to region and era.
HUMAN-CARRYING
CAPACITY
Population density is the number of people per unit of area, usually quoted per square kilometre or square mile.
POPULATION
DENSITY
It describes the combination of high fertility (birth rates) and declining mortality (death rates) in developing countries, resulting in a period of high population growth rate.
DEMOGRAPHIC
TRAP
Total
Dependency
Ratio
DEPENDENCY RATIO
It is the maximum population size of the species that the environment can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat,water and other necessities available in the environment.
INFANT
MORTALITY
RATE
It is the number of infants dying before reaching one year of age, per 1000 live births in a given year.
FERTILITY RATE
Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with current age-specific fertility rates.
It is the number of women who die during pregnancy and childbirth, per 100,000 live births.
MATERNAL MORALITY
RATIO
=
(number of people ages 0 - 14 and those aged 65 and over)
(number of people aged 15 - 64)
x
100
The dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically the dependent part and the productive part.
SANITATION AND HEALTH PROBLEMS
Adverse effects on water bodies, due to
open defecation.
Increase in the
number of deaths
worldwide due to poor sanitation.
Rise of
water-borne and respiratory diseases
like diarrhoea, cholera and bronchitis.
EFFECT ON THE ENVIRONMENT
Because of bad
air quality,
childhood asthma rates have increased, and the problem is not only limited to industrialised countries.
The approximate date that humanity's annual demand on nature exceeds what the Earth can renew this year.
In less than 8 months, we have demanded an amount of ecological resources and services equivalent to what Earth can regenerate for all of 2014.
It would take more than 1.5 Earths to provide the biocapacity needed to support humanity's current Ecological Footprint.
Various chemicals from human industries, especially
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs),
destroy ozone over the course of years. Some of the most dangerous ones have been banned in many countries, which has slowed their rate of increase in the atmosphere, but they are very long lasting and will continue to deplete the ozone layer for many years.
There is a finite amount of these fossil fuels in the Earth, and we have already extracted the easy-pickings in much of the world.
Forests - Source of fuel and building material, sequester greenhouse gases and protect us from global warming
We are in the midst of one of the greatest extinctions of other species in the history of the planet.
Earth Overshoot Day
19 August
Depict how developed nations can contribute to a lower emphasis on population growth by adhering to certain principles such as having couples focus on having fewer children.
How overpopulation can be minimized due to the improving healthcare for birth and death rates as well as certain ideology that couples follow.
A benchmark for describing the how populations in societies have changed remarkably.
Viewpoints of various thinkers and economists
Quintus Tertullianus
lived in 2nd Century CE in Rome
was an early Christian author
"What most frequently meets our view (and occasions complaint) is our teeming population. Our numbers are burdensome to the world, which can hardly support us..
In very deed, pestilence, and famine, and wars, and earthquakes have to be regarded as a remedy for nations, as the means of pruning the luxuriance of the human race."
Mercantilists
"They saw population as a form of wealth which made possible the development of bigger markets and armies."
Physiocracy
"Mankind will outgrow its resources."
Pierre Samuel du Pont de Nemours
Thomas Malthus
"Mankind would outgrow its resources because a finite amount of land would be incapable of supporting a population with limitless potential for increase."
In 1798, a 32 year-old British economist anonymously published a lengthy pamphlet criticizing the views of the Utopians who believed that life could and would definitely improve for humans on earth.
"An Essay on the Principle of Population as it Affects the Future Improvement of Society, with Remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet and Other Writers"
- Thomas Robert Malthus
Arithmetic Progression
Geometric Progression
= initial term of the AP
Where,
d
= common difference of successive
members
= n
th term of the AP
Where,
= n
th term of the GP
= initial term of the GP
r
= common ratio of the GP
His theory said that human population increased
geometrically
Food supply, at most, can increase
arithmetically
1 , 2, 4 , 16 , 32 , 64 , 128 , 256 , etc . .
*having initial term
a
=1 and common ratio
r
=2
*having initial term
a
=1 and common difference
d
=2
1 , 2, 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , etc . .
Since food is an essential component to human life, population growth in any area, if unchecked, would lead to starvation.
Hypothetically,
World Population in
early 19th Century
=
1 Billion
Population could increase to 256 billion within 200 years
Means of subsistence would be enough only for 9 billion people.
Two checks to hold population within resource limits -
PREVENTIVE
'Moral restraint'
Deliberate decision by men to refrain from pursuing the dictate of nature in an early attachment to one woman
POSITIVE
To raise death rate.
Hunger, disease, war - shortening the human lifespans.
Overpopulation
is a
myth?
*According to World Bank reports, in 2012 USA's crude death rate was 8 deaths per thousand population, whereas Uganda's was 12 deaths per thousand population.
Population growth has long been a concern of the government, and India has a lengthy history of explicit population policy.
Population control has been on India’s agenda since Independence. The First Five Year Plan adopted a “clinical approach”
Indira Gandhi’s regime was notorious for its methods to control family planning. Political pressure led to a barter between India and the US resulting in India agreeing to control population in return for food.
Sterilization and IUD quotas were set for each administrative district/state.
Sterilization camps were also set up, but these came riddled with their own problems.
Soon politicos resorted to “additional incentives”.
For example - Madhya Pradesh and irrigation water
YEAR
(tubectomy+vasectomy)
STERLISATIONS
PERFORMED
1961
10,500
1966-67
887,000
1976-68
1.8 million
During the Emergency, overt coercion became the norm. Sterilization became a condition for land allotments, licenses, ration cards, electricity, water and the like.
Policemen and demolition squads became common in places where people were not cooperating.
Unfair means aside,the population control drive made the West happy.

The “
Medical Termination of Pregnancy
” Act was introduced in 1971.
By 1976, a minimum age for marriage was introduced and stress was laid on education for women, reproductive biology and research and contraception.
In the 1990’s and early 2000s, there was a move from broad national plans to more localized area plans. National Population Plan had been set up.
The National Population Policy “affirms the commitment of government towards voluntary and informed choice and consent of citizens while availing of reproductive health care services, and continuation of the target free approach in administering family planning services.”
A 2-Child norm is widely promoted by the government.

For example - Honeymoon package, curtailment of candidature.

But this has its own drawbacks.
WORLD POPULATION
DAY
Observed on July 11th, every year.
Seeks to raise awareness of global population issues.
Over population concerns peak, then decline
Soon after 1934, the global population began to rise steeply as antibiotics, vaccines, and technology increased life expectancy. By the 1960s, concerns of a mismatch between global population and global food supply peaked.
The introduction of safe contraception - but while the rate of global population growth declined from its peak in the late 1960s, the absolute increment of increase in annual global population continued to grow.
Maurice King refers to the silence on overpopulation as the “Hardinian Taboo”, named after the American ecologist Garett Hardin, who described the taboos that humans use to avoid confronting the need for population control
Whatever the cause of the scarcity of modern academic analysis, the related issues of human carrying capacity and overpopulation deserve fresh consideration.
SUGGESTIONS
Plan the size of my family. Consider having two or fewer children, and/or adoption.
Support domestic and international family planning programs.
Guarantee access to family planning resources.
Eradicate violence against women.
Educate and involve men in family planning and child care.
Create gender equality.
Role of schools in creating awareness.
Specific issues about the population growth to be discussed in community forums.
Stricter laws and proper implementation for immigration and citizenship in the country.
In many ways a world of 7 billion is an achievement: Globally, people are living longer and healthier lives, and couples are choosing to have fewer children. However, because so many couples are in, or will soon be entering, their reproductive years, the world population is projected to increase for decades to come. Meeting the needs of current and future generations presents daunting challenges.

The silence around overpopulation prevents the global health community from making the necessary link between the planet's limited ability to support its and health and development crises.

Whether we can live together equitably on a healthy planet will depend on the choices and decisions we make now. In a world of 7 billion people, and counting, we need to count each other.


POVERTY
LESS OVERPOPULATION = LESS POVERTY
"The key thing you can do to reduce
population growth is actually
improve health."

- Bill Gates
Addressing global poverty and keeping children alive is crucial.
The UN projects than the population of the 48 poorest countries in the world will double from 850 million in 2010 to 1.7 billion in 2050.
Poverty and lack of education leads to higher birth rates and overpopulation.
Where poverty rates drop,
birth rates soon follow.
*In 1992, the average family in Cambodia had nearly 6 children; by 2011, extreme poverty (living on less than $1.25 per day) in Cambodia had fallen 22% and average family size had decreased by half.
By the Third Five Year Plan, the government knew it had to focus on extending current policies and setting target goals.
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