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Changing Climate, Changing Wildlife in Michigan

A presentation of the results of a NatureServe CCVI analysis on 400 species of fish and wildlife in Michigan. Presented to the MSU Law Symposium on Biodiversity and Deforestation 2014
by

Chris Hoving

on 15 February 2015

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Transcript of Changing Climate, Changing Wildlife in Michigan

Changing Climate, Changing Wildlife
A Vulnerability Assessment of 400 Fish and Wildlife in Michigan
Methods
Results
Conservation Action
Other Vulnerability Assessments
Results
Bonus Tools
Data insufficient - 158 species
Data sufficient - 400 species
61% of SGCN vulnerable
17% of game species vulnerable
Climate Predictions - Lake Effect Incorporated
WICCI, Michigan DNR, GLRI and LCC
http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/
http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC/


Climate.gov
http://www.climate.gov/teaching


MEECS Curriculum (Grades 6-9)
http://www.michigan.gov/deq/0,4561,7-135-3307_3580_29678---,00.html


Svante Arrhenius

200 years ago

The 1970s

The future

Plan for trend, insure against extremes


Climate Change 101
NatureServe
CCVI - Climate Change Vulnerability Index

Species scored by sensitivity and exposure

Statewide, 400 SGCN and Game
Scenario
If we take the average of the 15 different global climate models

For mid-century (2050s)

Assuming current emissions trajectory

Result: Warmer, drier growing season, wetter winter/spring

Single Climate Scenario
http://www.climatewizard.org/
https://connect.natureserve.org/science/climate-change/ccvi
http://www.michigan.gov/documents/dnr/3564_Climate_Vulnerability_Division_Report_4.24.13_418644_7.pdf
Common loon - Highly vulnerable, may leave state
Northern bobwhite - Increase likely
Virginia opossum - Increase likely, expanding range in state
Piping plover - Moderately vulnerable
Lake sturgeon - Highly vulnerable
White-tailed deer - Presumed stable
Moose - Highly Vulnerable
Indiana bat - Moderately vulnerable, expanding range in area
Relative Vulnerability of Taxa
in Michigan
Main Factors Contributing to Vulnerability
Certainties

- Boreal/temperate edge will experience the greatest disruption

- Northern species on average will shift northward, but some will shift southward

- The Great Lakes are naturally fragmented

It is worse than that
- CCVI probably too conservative
- New studies suggest only healthy populations can adapt
- All conservation concern species are vulnerable
But there is hope
( If ) emissions can be reduced
Extinction can be prevented, if funded adequately
Some species can be moved
Some areas can be connected by trails and greenways
Some species can be genetically engineered
Forests
Climate Tree Atlas
http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/

NIACS Assessments - coming soon!
http://climateframework.org/framework-components/vulnerability-assessment
Birds
Climate Bird Atlas
http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/

Audubon Climate Report
http://climate.audubon.org/

Smithsonian & LCC Report
http://nationalzoo.si.edu/scbi/migratorybirds/science_article/?id=401
Fish
First Great Lakes assessment in 1987 by Meisner et al.

http://fishhabclimate.org/

Will be specific to fish species in each lake and stream/river reach
Uncertainties
- Nonlinear systems tend toward abrupt transitions and unpredictability

- Climate systems and ecosystems are nonlinear systems

- Plan for surprises




Expect surprises
Chris Hoving
Adaptation Specialist at the
Michigan DNR

hovingc@michigan.gov
Tweeting @Pcrucifer

CCVI report at:
http://www.michigan.gov/documents/dnr/3564_Climate_Vulnerability_Division_Report_4.24.13_418644_7.pdf
David Kenyon
Christopher Hoving
Becky Sheets
David Kenyon
David Kenyon
Tim Carter, Ball State University
Full transcript