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International context of climate change
Gøril Tjetlandon 6 May 2011
Transcript of International context of climate change
The war on oil
Materials "We can replace all oil and coal within 20 years, at a lower price!" Explain the challenge and the solutions to the public Technology can be implemented in good ways and bad ways Ensure a global commitment from all regions Equitable and fair Focus on technology Equal attention to mitigation and adaptation Flexible Ensure co-benefits Health Jobs Biodiversity Justice Security Economic development Harness the power of
entrepreneurship! Private sector involvement is key Public-private partnerships Realities, threats and opportunities International context of climate change A question of great RISK Climate change is already having a lethal effect on human beings, our livelihoods and infrastructure, and the ecosystems all life depends upon Can we avoid the TIPPING POINTS
beyond which climate change comes out of control? ALREADY happening! A GLOBAL problem A question of LEADERSHIP CAN be SOLVED! "If any of you have an island to sell, please let us know
-we are very interested!" Current temperature increase 0.75 C O Anonte Tong
President of Kirbati probability x consequence RISK = How to combat global warming? Solutions...
Thousands of solutions! Lifestyle change What makes us happy? Smarter energy systems Capture and store CO from large point sources Gas power plants Coal power plants Cement kilns Iron/steel factories Pulp and paper Refineries Chemicals Sustainable bioenergy Save energy... and money! Protect forests and wetlands Let's go carbon negative! www.bellona.org/ccs www.saharaforestproject.com 1930ies Economic crisis 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The Kyoto Protocol Adopted Dec 11 1997
Open in 1998
2001 – USA doesn’t ratify.
2004 – Russia signs the protocol.
2005 - Went into force in February
Valid from 2008 through 2012 37 industrialised nations, listed in "Annex 1", agree to cut emissions by 5.2 % compared to 1990
All other countries make general commitments to limit emissions Flexible mechanisms, such as emission trading, the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation Common, but differentiated responsibility:
Rich countries bare most of the blame and should carry the costs. Developing countries not obliged to cut emissions. 2009: COP15 in Copenhagen Negotiations to agree on a follow-up of the Kyoto Protocol
Goal: a binding commitment to reduce emissions globally by 60-80 percent by 2050 compared to 1990
Results: No firm decisions made 1930ies Economic crisis Gøril Tjetland Energy advisor
The Bellona Foundation firstname.lastname@example.org
www.bellona.org http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs email@example.com
www.ifpenergiesnouvelles.com Benoit Cheze IFP Énergies Nouvelles
Economics Department 2 The truth and the myths - IPCC and others
Oreskes 2004 expresses great surprise over their findings "Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position"
The conclusion is based on a review of almost 1000 scientific papers dealing with "climate change" published between 1993 and 2003. Note: The consensus position is the IPCC position From the summary of Anderegg et al.:12107-12109: "Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC (anthropogenic climate change) outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers". Climate coverage in two of Norways major papers (Lothe 2010)
1987 Boykoff and Roberts (2007) The scale of the challenge Chinese growth 2 C o "Safe level" policy target 2009 1930ies Economic crisis Supported by a decreasing resource base 2050 Sustainable development is urgently needed Greenhouse gas emissions must be eliminated ASAP! 1,6 billion without access to electricity 2,5 billion rely on cow dung or firewood for cooking 80% live on less than $3/day 1 billion new workers in the next 10 years Life-supporting ecosystems in danger We need to solve many problems in one! Financial crisis and job losses Create jobs & enable sustainable, economic development Protect ecosystems and biodiversity & secure access to food and water Mitigate dangerous climate change by drastically and quickly reducing greenhouse gas emissions Adapt infrastructure and livelihoods to tackle unavoidable climate change Avoid the unmanagable - and manage the unavoidable Create a global climate of peace and stability & strengthen human rights Improve air quality & protect human health Emissions have increased by 3 percent per year since 2000
International Energy Agency expects business as usual to lead to an 130% increase in CO2 emissions by 2050
Current atmospheric CO2-concentration: 389ppm, increasing at 2.5 ppm per year
IPCC: stabilisation temperature at >6 C up In the meanwhile... Unsustainable practices leads to unsustainable jobs Need to create lasting jobs for a growing global work force source: Eric Usher, UNDP
www.unep.org/greeneconomy 2010: COP16 in Cancun Intervention plan On the basis of Copenhagen
The Cancun targets have been set
Two documetns signed in Cancun relaunch international negotiations - no firm commitment to reduce emissions in industrialised contries, only the acknowledgement that climate change needs to be kept at under 2 C,
- no legal framework for tackling climate change after 2012 o Results: Two acknowledged advances - arcknowledgement from all countries that action needs to be taken; - lower emissions, initiatives to adapt to climate change.
- willingness to release financing for North-South transfers; - "Fast start": commitment made by the world`s most industrialised country to pay US$30 billion to least developed countries between now and 2012. Goal: Get the United Nations Framework Convention to adopt the Copenhagen political accord
Goal: Decide on what is to follow the Kyoto Protocol Decision: The Copenhagen accord is integrated into the Convention on Climate Change Decision: Creation of the Green Climate Fund (projects, programmes and policies of developing countries) Decision: Creation of a commitee on adapting to the effects of climate change for developing countries
Decision: Creation of a technology centre for developing expertise in new green technologies in developing countries
Decision: Mechanism to combat deforestation has been launched: Redd+, - creation, by developing forest countries, of emissions credits that can be traded on the market CCS in CDM A number of CCS operations are eligible (under certain geological conditions) for the Clean Development Mechanism:
appealing for countries which have CCS technology (e.g. Algeria)
appaeling for countries that are dependent on coal (China, India, Indonesia, South Africa)
The CMD is linked to the Kyoto Protocol. Since Cancun, there is a willingness to explore flexibility mechanisms beyond 2012 (methods still have to be defined in Durban). commitment ot work towards a long-term global objective of reducing CO emissions - limit climate change to 2 C compared with the preindustrial era
developing countries commit to quantifying and publishing details of their national emissions (MRV). Take national measures to reduce their emissions between now and 2020 (NAMAs). US$100 billion/year from 2020
Provisional manager (3 years) the World Bank
In place of all climate funds. Additionality Success or failure? French Ministry of foreign and European Affairs: "Cancun is a success"
- as far as financing, transferring technology and combating deforestation are concerned.
France`s Commitment is €412 million per year as part of the early financing programme until 2012.
NGOs: "Governments have proven that they can work together and work towards an international agreement. Cancun perhaps saved the process, but not yet the climate" (W. Trio)
No binding agreement was signed!
Much work remains to be done next year in Durban
Legal framework of a future climate agreement: an agreement to complement the Kyoto Protocol, a new agreement etc.
Operating principles of the Green Climate Fund, of the adaptation plan and of the technology mechanism, financing the deforestattion agreement etc,
"Our Common Future" was published.
Vostok drilling (Antartica) - the relationship between the CO concentration in the atmosphere and the temperature increase was first proven and the topic of 'global warming' reached the newspapers.
UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established
First IPCC report published
IPCCs third report is published
IPCCs second assessment report came
Asia Pacific Partnership (APP). USA, China, Japan and organisations in the private sector - to reduce the carbon intensity of the world`s economies via voluntary technology transfers
- fringe negotiations during the UN CC
IPCCs fourth report - sectoral approach which sets out to establish branch agreements which prohibit the use of the least efficient technologies. Should make it possible to limit production transfer
- developing countries view these as hidden attempts to reduce emissions
- fringe negotiation during the UN CC
aim to make it easier to secure an agreement within the framework of the UN negotiations
loose consensus secured for Cancun ...
Bolivia radical position
launches an initiative which involves questioning capitalism in the face of climate change
creation of an international tribunal, defence of the idea of climate debt, militates for a global referendum on climate
only party to have refused to sign the Cancun consensus
Both these negotiations are partly beyond the control of the UN CC Bellona scenario So, what solutions do we need to use? but what did the IPCC say again .. ? Adverse effect of increasing temperature on robusta coffee in Uganda Bad conditions Good conditions Less good conditions Source: Otto Simonett, Potential impacts of global warming, GRID-Geneva, case studies on climate change, Geneva, 1989 Temperatures 1989 Temperature increase of 2 C o What`s next? What should follow the Kyoto Protocol? Japan, Russia and Canada all refused to extend the Kyoto Protocol in Cancun. They want a treaty that includes China and the US.
The world`s developing countries think that the industrialised countries should be the first to make efforst to reduce emissions. How should the Green Cliamte Fund be operationally implemented? Carbon tax, tax on fuel for naval & air tanks, special drawing rigths, Tobin type tax ... all still have to be defined In the meantime ... 2010: 2007: 2005: 2001: 1995: 1990: 1988: 2 1987: The number of carbon markets is increasing: EU-ETS (27) + Norway - €14/tCO
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) - on allowance $1-2/tCO
New Zealand - forest only
Western Climate Initiative (WCI) - currently being investigated - regional allowance market
Canada would like to be part of the WCI in 2012
California market in 2012
South Korea - CO market in 2013 - all sectors
China in discussion to open up a market before 2015
... 2 2
The value of all these markets combined in 2010 is US$170 billion, mainly coming from the EU-ETS 2 o Emissions (Mt CO /yr) 2 Annual global greenhouse gas emissions by sector Which gases are we talking about? Energy use and greenhouse gases Data from IEA GHG databases Who are the bad guys? Top 10 = 2/3 The figures how a +24% increase in GES and +25% in CO from 1970 to 2004 2 United Press International 18 April 2011: The top 5 emitters from a consumption-based perspective in 2008 plotted as production-based emissions (left) and as consumption-based emissions (right). Image credit: PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1006388108
"The net emission transfers via international
trade from developing to developed countries increased from 0.4 Gt CO in 1990 to 1.6 Gt CO in 2008, which exceeds the Kyoto Protocol emission reductions. Our results indicate that international trade is a significant factor in explaining the change in emissions in many countries, from both a production and consumption perspective.
We suggest that countries monitor emission transfers via international trade, in addition to territorial emissions, to ensure progress toward stabilization of global greenhouse gas emissions". 2 2 The modern Crystal ball .. European level: Storage Directive Signed and ratified by 187 countries
Most notable exception: USA
Rio convention (UN on climate change : CCNUCC / UNFCCC), 189 countries. 3 principles : precaution, common responsibility and right to development. Paula Coussy IFP Énergies Nouvelles
Chef de Projet - Economics Department
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/publications/doc/statistics/ext_co2_emissions_by_sector.pdf Major Emitters Meeting (MEM)
- nearly 15 states and representatives of the UN (80% of global emissions) IPCC
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA
Centre National Océanographique
Etc... The IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore
Dr Pachauri Setting the scene Potential demand in China: today`s development is similar to that of Japan in 1955 "King Coal" 1 m.ton of coal = 4.879 barrels of crude oil equivalent So how are we doing?
EEA Measures cheaper than the consequences of global warming EU main structure Target: 10-12 demonstration projects by 2015 and full scale projects by 2020
Average of 6 years between application of exploration permit and effective storing of CO (exploration permit phase 1 year - exploration phase around 5 years)
Need to start building demonstration projects now, before implementation deadline (june 2011)
Any delay in implementing the legislation will result in delay in investments decisions and may jeopardize the timeschedule for demonstration projects
Need to accelerate the implementation of the Directive at EU level
Implementation guidelines are published early 2011
Exchange of information between member states 2 EU timeframe Specific legal issues CO stream
Acceptance criteria and acceptance procedure
- Composition of CO
- Obligations of the storage site operator in term of CO purity
Reaction in case of non conformity
Corrective measures 2 2
EEA member countries collectively reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 7.5 % and per capita emissions from 10.9 to 9.3 tonnes CO2-equivalent between 1990 and 2008. If governments act vigorously now to encourage more efficient use of oil and the development of alternatives, then demand for oil might begin to ease quite soon and we might see a fairly early peak in oil production. That peak would not be caused by any resource constraint. But if governments do nothing or little more than at present, then demand will continue to increase, the economic burden of oil use will grow, vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase and the global environment will suffer serious damage. The peak in oil production will come then not as an invited guest, but as the spectre at the feast (s126 WOE 2010)
source: Potsdam Institute for Climate research How much CCS is needed? 2007 : Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations.