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Why Obama won in 2012

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Morgaine Schofield

on 15 October 2013

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Transcript of Why Obama won in 2012

Why Obama won in 2012
Obama's early and effective attacks on Romney
Obama used his advantage that Romney was still fighting in the primaries
The Obama introduced Romney as a "tax-dodging, job-outsourcing villain who would shred the safety net holding up the elderly and the poor"- Beth Reinhard
The campaign sent out a series of negative ads in swing states. "the ads paid off"- Rick Tyler
Whilst Romney was travelling in Europe, the Obama campaign spent $1.2 million on these ads which were played 1947 times in Ohio alone
Therefore the election became about Romney's character
Campaign Finance
Obama vs Romney
Obama spent more money in the campaign.
The October Surprise
An October surprise is an unexpected development late in the campaign so any disadvantages that is has wont have time to respond before Election Day. The one that happened in 2012 was natural rather than a political phenomenon. Hurricane sandy reeked havoc on places such as New York and New Jersey this took away Romney’s news headlines days before the Election Day which damaged his plans. Also Romney was photographed give out aids in the back of a car while Obama was in the white house situation room. By doing this he showed how Obama had more initiative and the bigger scale rather than the smaller scale plan. It was said that the way the candidates handled the situation influenced the votes.
Clinton and Bush effect
Since 1796, 31 presidents have run for re-elections. 22/31 have won
Defeating an incumbent president is difficult especially if he has a united party to support him
Only Carter (1980) and George H.W. Bush (1992) were defeated after facing significant opposition in the primaries but in 2012, Obama was nominated with little opposition
American voters tend to re-elect a president for a second term such as Bill Clinton (1996), George W. Bush (2004) and Barack Obama (2012)
Romney & his gaffes

•Mitt Romney lacks the common touch to get alongside and talk with ordinary Americans unlike Bill Clinton or George W. Bush.
• ‘In factories and fast-food restaurants, Romney was an awkward presence, uneasy at making small-talk with voters.’
• Romney had moved so far right during the primaries to win over the Republicans that he found it difficult to move back to the political centre before Election Day.
• Much of what he said in the closing weeks contradicted what he had said during the primaries.
• Obama had suggested that he was suffering from ‘Romnesia’.
• Earlier in the campaign he had boasted about being the ‘severely conservative governor’ but towards the end he was becoming ‘moderate Mitt’.
• ‘It was too late to overcome an image of incompetence, aloofness and lack of definition.’

Obama ran the better campaign
• ‘The Obama campaign knew [that because of the economy] they weren’t supposed to get re-elected, so they figured out who they needed to register to vote and turn out to change that.’
• By spring 2012, Obama had more field offices open than all of his Republican candidates combined – this allowed him to influence the public more than the Republicans could.
• In Ohio, 96% of African-Americans voted for Obama and in Florida, 60% of Hispanics voted for Obama.

The Role played by campaign finance and TV adverts
Mitt Romney did not attempt to response as his campaign did not the funds
$1.2 million spent by the Obama Campaign and was played 1947 times in Ohio alone
Clinton and Bush have had a rocky relationship as with many presidential candidates. However Clinton’s behavior was childish and had frequent angry outburst, such as “the biggest fairy tail I’ve ever seen” which made him look unprofessional to his colleges and the whole of the USA. Then fours years later through TV ads Clinton showed real support and enthusiasm.
...Clinton and Bush effect
Through polls it had showed how Obama was very popular even with issues in his presidency. There were exit pollsters who asked “who is to blame for the current economic problems: Barack Obama or George W. Bush?” 53% voted Bush while only 38% voted Obama which was very strange. Then it was asked again, and Obama took 85% of Bushes 53%, while Romney took 12%. Then Romney took 94% of Obama’s.
The Incumbency Factor
Most notable
I like to fire people.’
• ‘[My wife] Anne drives a couple of Cadillacs.’
• ‘The answer [for illegal immigrants] is self-deportation.’
• ‘I went to a number of women’s groups and said, “Can you help us find folks,” and they brought us whole binders full of women.’

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20012493

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