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Robocars A

Where they will drive us

Brad Templeton

on 6 February 2014

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Transcript of Robocars A

Saving Lives
Kill 34,000 people each year in USA - #3 in years of life lost. (7,500 in Argentina)
1.2 million die worldwide, 50M injuries
120,000 serious injuries, Argentina 3x worse than USA in deaths/car! 3/4 non-fatal injuries outside the car.
US: $230 billion cost of accidents - 2.5% of GDP, 8 cents/mile
50 billion hours spent driving - 8% of GDP
Human Drivers
40% of fatalities due to drinking
93% human error, 80% of accidents due to inattention
41 hours/year lost to congestion (US)
3 parking spaces per car, 60% of land in LA
World drives 1.7 light years / year
Over 25% of US energy budget, more of the CO2 -- similar elsewhere
The Reality
They are coming
Cars galore with:
Self parking
Lane keeping warning/assist
Automatic Cruise Control
Pedestrian and collision detection/warning/braking

Now announced or demonstrated:
Mercedes 2014 S-Class with stop-and-go autopilot
Audi, Volvo: 2014 or 2015. VW 2016
Valet Park, limited autopilot, accident management
Many concept cars from every vendor
Programmers can save the world
What car do I need for today?
The right vehicle for the trip
Mostly an ultralight
Buy what you use, not what you might need
Your car rents itself out
Or don't buy at all
Greener than transit…
Who killed the electric car?
We can make an efficient short-range electric, but few will buy it.
Robots don't care how convenient it is to recharge or refuel
It's all about marketing!
The end of oil wars
Time for Apollo-like resolve
Range not a factor
Acceleration and speed not a factor
Comfort much more of a factor, soft ride.
Want to be sharable
Different safety constraints
Small width, single passenger or face-to-face, sleepers, RVs
Robots don't care how convenient it is to refuel
They don't care about waiting.
They don't park (they can wait anywhere)
Enables all alternative fuels
We know how to make this car, not how to sell it
Robocars save the electric car
200 million tons CO2
Ending US overseas oil imports
Political issues
Lobby by children, the aged, the Drunk, and of course, Jews
Can we order our robocar to do something illegal?
They don’t park they stand.
Can stand in driveways, in front of hydrants, double and triple parked
The more cars on road, the more road capacity
Vast alteration of the nature of retail
How we own durable goods & consume food
Moore's Law
Comes to transportation

Competing innovators vs. 19th century approaches
vs. Municipal Administrators
Reduced Accidents &
Road Metering
Half-width cars
Removing parked cars
Redirecting Streets
Shorter headways
As much as 15x more capacity
Longer trips
Super Sprawl
Computer Intrusion, Bugs
Super Cruise in 201?
Continental & BMW
A pleasant work environment, face to face
No central control or new infrastructure
Three Steps
1. Real Estate & employee planning
2. Plan for rewrite of retail
3. Consider the car as living room
What car do I need for my life?
Brad Templeton
Chair, Networks & Computing, Singularity University
(Not speaking for Google)
Bottom up vs. central control
Longer range sensors
Reliable computer vision
Liability and Legality
Public safety
Connected car vs. solo operation
Decades away
We need to work out liability and tickets
Have to go the speed limit
Must solve "trolley problem"
Facebook Driverless Car HQ
Wired Autopia
Full transcript