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Macro Economics

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by

Kathy Cameron

on 5 May 2014

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Transcript of Macro Economics

We will travel to the MOON and back...
Retail Sales and Hybrid Vehicle Sales
Observation: The Us Retail Sales have had many ups and downs. The most drastic change being closer to 2009 when the sales took a deep dip due to raised gas prices.
$1.25
Monday, May 5, 2014
Vol XCIII, No. 311
What Will be Covered
Agenda
ISM Manufacturing Index
Real GDP Growth
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Retail and Hybrid Vehicle Sales
ISM Manufacturing Index

Personal Consumption Expenditures
Assessment of QE program and its future.
Monetary Policy Recommendation

Us Economy
Measures data changes in prices paid by the urban consumer for goods and services
Percentage change in prices
2013 through 2014 percentage decreases
Yelitza Santana

Commodity Inflation

Crude Oil Prices
Yelitza Santana

Unemployment

Yelitza Santana

Workforce Participation Rate
Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods, Terri M.

Real GDP Growth (SAAR) Terri Moody

CPI Inflation (Y/Y changes)
All the values over 50 Indicate Expansion While values below 50 indicate contraction.
Monitors Production, inventory, new orders, supplier deliveries and employment.
Monitors conditions of National Manufacturing
Investors can understand the national economic conditions

Value of US Dollar

Yelitza Santana
What do the numbers mean?

When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below -0.7 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun.

When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above +0.7 more than two years into an economic expansion there is an increasing likelihood that a period of sustained increasing inflation has begun.
Source: Chicago Fed
http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/cfnai/2014/cfnai_april2014.pdf
175.7 Index
Decline but still considered high
- Increased Mortgage Rates
- Recovering Housing Price
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/COMPHAI
Cathleen

Federal Reserve System Assets
Janet L. Yellen Terri Moody
Exchange Rates Against US Dollar
Federal Reserve System Assets
Target Federal Funds Rate
Kathy
GDP and Potential GDP
Components of Taylors Rule Terri Moody
Long Run Fiscal Policy Terri Moody

35.1 Index
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMEAN/

The price for commodities like mineral fuels fluctuate more than any other commodities.
Yelitza Santana
Labor Market

Yelitza Santana

Fed Innovates to Replace Failed Banking System

Bear Stearns Bailout

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Bailout:

Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy Triggers Global Recession

Fed Nationalizes AIG

Credit Markets Freeze

End of Investment Banking

$700 Billion Bailout (Oct 3)

Obama Wins Presidency (Nov 3)
($ Trillion)
Kathy
Initial Unemployment Claims Terri Moody

Fun Facts

Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee

Professor Emeritus at the University of California at Berkeley

Council on Foreign Relations member

American Academy of Arts and Sciences member

Decrease in Retail Sales and Consumer spending between 2008 and 2009 due to the economy.
https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/national_economic_indicators/pdf/all_charts.pdf#page=52
Yelitza
Recommendations
Although the economy has improved since 2008, there are still many things that can be changed.
Cathleen Ryan
Cathleen Ryan
Cathleen Ryan
Cathleen Ryan
Cathleen Ryan
Kathy its Yelitza
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity
Thank You
New Single Family Home Sales & Existing Single- Family Home Sales
Questions?
Housing Affordability Index
DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT
The US unemployment rate seems to be the biggest challenge in the US today.

Recommendation: Reduce the amount of outsourcing in order to create jobs for Americans.

The Federal Funds Rate is helping to maintain the economy at its current state.
Exports & Imports and Impact on US exports growth
Full transcript