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Nuclear Arms Control & Disarmament

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Todd Robinson UIUC

on 29 October 2013

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Transcript of Nuclear Arms Control & Disarmament

Nuclear Arms Control & Disarmament
1925–1958: ATTEMPTED COMPREHENSIVE DISARMAMENT
Nuclear Arms Control - aka nuclear arms limitation, it is measures taken by states to limit the quantity or quality of their nuclear arms. Typically the result of bilateral or multilateral negotiations.
Nuclear Arms Reduction - reductions in the size (either in terms of numbers and/or platforms) of a state's nuclear arsenal resulting from bilateral or multilateral negotiations
Nuclear Disarmament - Unilateral reduction in the size or scope of a state's nuclear arsenal.
1926-1934 - Disarmament negotiations, both bilateral and multilateral, focused on reductions in naval forces and a limitation of the use of biological and chemical weapons
1945 - Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki changed the discussion to the control of nuclear arms
1946 - Introduction of the Baruch Plan.
The Baruch Plan
First nuclear arms control/nonproliferation initiative
US offered to turn over all nuclear arms to international control
Plan also called for international control of all atomic resources, including for power and research
Was to be called the "International Atomic Development Authority"
Soviet Union vetoed the plan, saying that it did not want its "atomic future" to rest on a UN Security Council vote

1959-1968 Partial Measures to Address Nuclear Arms Control
1959 - Negotation of a multilateral Anarctic Treaty. Prohibits the stationing of nuclear arms in Antarctica. Establishes world's first nuclear weapons free zone (important for non-proliferation)
1963 - China, UK, USSR, USA negotiate a Limited Test Ban Treaty (aka PTBT)
1963 - Hot Line agreement between the US & USSR
1967 - Negotiation of a multilateral Outer Space Treaty. Prohibits the stationing of nuclear arms in space and guarantees only the peaceful use of the surface of the moon.
Atoms for Peace Program
Program instituted by President Eisenhower, provided for the spread of nuclear technologies around the globe for those states who agreed to use them in a responsible manner. Must agree to US-led inspection.
1969 - 1979
Bilateral Arms Reduction
US-USSR Confidence Building Measures
Accidents Measures Agreement (1971)
Hot Line Modernization Agreement (1971)
Prevention of Nuclear War Agreement (1973)
SALT I (1969-1972)- Bilateral Negotiations between the US & USSR. Produced the following:
Interim Agreement (offensive weapon freeze)
Anti-ABM Treaty (defensive restriction)
SALT II (1973-1979)- Restricted number of strategic launch vehicles, addressed the MIRV issue (failed to achieve Senate ratification due to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, introduced the concept of categorical restrictions, important for later agreements
Arms Racing
Consequence of the security dilemma - (Snyder, 197 1; Snyder
and Diesing, 1977; Schelling, 1960; Rapoport, 1960; Jervis, 1978).


1980 - 1991 Repositioning
1991 - 2009
START IN FORCE
2009 - Present
NEW START
Reduces deployed warheads to 1550 and strategic delivery vehicles to 700
Seven years to implement
Ratified by both the US Senate and Russian Duma, went into effect January 5, 2011
Arms Limitation Agreements
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) (1982-1991) - Restricted strategic delivery vehicles to 1600, 6000 deployed warheads
Intermediate Nuclear Forces Agreement (INF) 1987 - Further limited size of arsenals, but for the first time introduced bilateral on-site inspection regimes
Fallout of the collapse of the Soviet Union left the status of START in doubt
The May 1992 Lisbon Protocol between Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation confirmed that the treaty obligations would be met
START enters into force in 1994, begins the prescribed seven year reduction period
START II is negotiated and signed by Yeltsin and Bush (41) in 1993, called for further cuts. Fails to receive Senate ratification due in large part to the existence of the ABM treaty
Treaty of Moscow (2002) - SORT, makes reductions beyond START II
The Future of Arms Control?
Arms control has largely been bilateral (US and USSR/Russia) or multilateral
What about potential arms races with China?
China is modernizing their entire military infrastructure, including their ICBM force. While they have always focused on their neighborhood, how long until their attention turns westward?
What about India and Pakistan?
In the middle of a heated rivalry. Pakistan's conventional military is weak, nukes are cheaper by comparison, is perhaps no surprise that they are building up
What about an international nuclear arms limitation treaty?
Full transcript