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Transcript of Kashmir
Pakistani raiders and soldiers attacked the state in 1947
Agreement to make Jammu & Kashmir part of India
Indian troops were flown into the Kashmir Valley and they managed to drive away most of the Pakistani raiders from the state
Pakistan retaining control of a large area of the state but India keeping a larger part.
Some people want to remain independent
Others want to join Pakistan - Muslim
conflict over who controls kashmir
How was the conflict resolved? OR what is the current state of play (as relevant), including the possibility of resolution?
Yet to be resolved
Recent years, big thaw in relations
More talks, several Kashmir-specific confidence building measures, e.g.: bus service between 2 parts resumed in 2005 and old trade route across LoC reopened after 60 years
Indian Kashmiris: wary of condident building measures, fear them as a ploy to make LoC permanent
Huge international backing to continue peace process and succeed in negotiations
Both sides see conflict as a hindrance to economic development of region
Both governments face powerful hardline nationalist groups –they want to make sure concessions are not unacceptable to the other side
Last 3 years, overall decline in violence in Indian Kashmir
For progress in political situation:
cross border terrorism and proxy war between India and Pakistan must stop
Increased Indian-Pakistani political cooperation, such as reopening roads on either side of border
Negotiators must focus on what is best for the people, not focus on territorial compromises The UNCIP adopted a resolution on August 13, 1948. It had three core sections.
1. a cease-fire
2. withdrawal of nationals and tribesmen by Pakistan
3. the people of Jammu and Kashmir would democratically determine its future Stability of the region
Conflict largely based on religion
An issue since the partition
Line of Control can easily be crossed
Nuclear warfare once again?
The only Muslim dominated state in India
Great deal of resentment by this majority
India seen as a Hindu country, Pakistan as a Muslim one
Ceasefire for 3 years so far...
Pakistan’s view: let Kashmir vote as to where they want to belong in a referendum
India’s view: Kashmir has always been in our administration and has accepted our practices
Kashmiris themselves would like to form their own state
Increased chances of rebellion, mutiny
Escalation of conflict
Will get worse once citizens of Jammu and Kashmir run out of patience
No more tug-o-war! Let us be our own! We want peace!
Great possibility that Kashmir will go to Pakistan, Jammu to India, Ladakh to China.
If conflict does escalate...
Balance of power
Balance of power held by India at the moment
However, Pakistan too controls parts of Kashmir
Balance of power now has to be decided based on military prowess.
Used to be very active through 60’s-80’s
Since the 90’s, the most the USA has done is promote dialogue between India and Pakistan
Kashmir was no longer seen as a high priority (Iraq, Afghanistan)
To what extent does the instability continue to characterise the region?
Conflict is still occuring
However there has been progress
Increased transport through Kashmir
The past three years, huge decline in violence Kashmir
Still work that needs to be done to settle the dispute in a peaceful way