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Case 5-2 Consumer Credit Counseling

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by

Renee Nelson

on 20 February 2014

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Transcript of Case 5-2 Consumer Credit Counseling

Adequacy
Not accurate - not given alpha or n for exponential smoothing or simple moving average
Naive Model
Ŷ(t + 1) = Yt
Moving Average
Ŷ(t +1) = Yt + Yt-1 + Yt-2 + Yt-3 + Yt-4 + Yt-5 + Yt-6 + Yt-7
8

The Best Model
Moving Average
- lowest error

Exponential Smoothing
Ŷt +1 = α(alpha * Yt) + (1 -αalpha)Ŷt
How do you tell which method is the most accurate?
http://www.polleverywhere.com/multiple_choice_polls/M3HCF52jouVfgrA
Case 5-2 Consumer Credit Counseling
By: Maryann Garcia & Renee Nelson

Questions?
Summary

Forecasting the amount of clients for 2009
Given monthly data for new clients from January 2001 - March 2009
Determine best/most adequate forecasting method
Autocorrelation
Best Model
Moving Average
- lowest error
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