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UK - Voting Behaviour
Transcript of UK - Voting Behaviour
SOCIAL STRUCTURES MODEL
Voters in Scotland, Wales and the more northerly regions of Great Britain have traditionally been more likely to vote Labour than Conservative partly because there have traditionally been larger percentages of working class voters in these areas
in each of the last 4 General Elections English voters have been more pro-Conservative and less pro-Labour than Scottish and Welsh vote
Upper class tend to vote for Conservative
Support for Labour in Wales has declined very considerably between 1997 and 2010 and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats gained approximately equally as a result of the decline in Labour's support .
Voting and part support tends to change with age in the UK. Studies suggest that the public tends to vote for minor parties and the Liberal Democrats between the ages of 18 and 24. The Labour party then appears to gain the most votes from people under the age of 45. The votes may then swing in the other direction, towards Conservative. This shows that voting behavior can be influenced by age because of changing views on politics gained by experience from age.
Lower class and lower working class tend to vote for Labour
The lower class and lower working class
are more volatile than the upper class
Lower class has a lower turnout
2010 elections map, shows strong conservative support in the south
with the north leaning towards labour/libdem
Upper class has a high turnout
traditionally the north has had a higher concentration of the working class, meaning there is greater labour support in the north, whereas the south has tended to be more upper class, leading to greater consevative support
Less females turnout than males
despite conservatives being dominant in the south, Labour had the most victories in the london and greater London area
More females than males vote for Labour
Females are slightly more volatile than males
Scotland tends to vote SNP/Lib Dem
Northern ireland tend to vote for someone else
40% of lower class people who turned out voted Labour
DE - Conservative Labour swing of 7.0%
C2 - Conservative-Labour swing of 7.5%
AB - Conservative-Labour swing of 2.0
Elderly people and people from previous generations may also tend to be long term supporters fo a political party, most often one of the big two, which have been around for much longer than most other parties. the UK.
The tables clearly show that the majority of ethnic minorities within the UK tend to vote Labour as the Labour party has not only traditionally be assoiated with the working class, but their policies on immigration have always been much more lenient than those of the Conservatives - as we found out from the last Labour Government! Moreover, the tables show that the conservatives are fairly popular among the British Asian community as 24% of them voted Conservative at the 2010 general election compared to 16% in 2005. This is mainly due to the long ties of the British and the Indian community for example during the occupation India.
The tables clearly show that the Labour party has the support of the majority Christian population at 81%. Most Christian religions such as Catholicism and Methodism are in support of the Labour party based of their religious teaching which coincides most with this party. In fact, one of the founders of the Labour party was a Methodist! What's more, many of those who don't vote for Labour vote for the Liberal Democrats as they view the Conservatives as being too traditional. However, the Tories have the support of a large percentage of the Sikh and Muslim populations, mainly because the Muslim population were angered by labour's invasion of Iraq in 2003. However, recent figures from the 2010 election show that non - christian religions are growing in support of the conservatives, mainly because of David Cameron's 'Big Society'.
General Election 2010: David Cameron reaches out to women voters
Generally, there are more lower class people up north than down south. the majority of northern people vote Labour
It is more expensive to live down south which is why there are so many upper class people who vote for the Conservative party
VOTING CONTEXT MODEL
Issues and Manifesto
Party Image and Candidates
1997 - Labour Party
2006 - Conservative
2010 - Labour
1955 - Conservative
2009 - Labour
2010 - Labour
What papers are allied to which parties?
Why do they change allegiance?
How much of an impact does it have?
What is the main news story of the day?
What does your news paper say about it?
Is it pro or anti-government in its stance?
VOTING CONTEXT MODEL
A vote casted to show the voters dislike with either the candidates or political system.
Tactical voting is when a voter chooses to vote for a candidate which isn't his/her favourite in order to stop an undesirable outcome
It’s the economy I – Concern with the economy dominated the issue agenda. This should have been a major opening for the major opposition party – the Conservatives.
It’s the economy II - the Conservatives did not capitalize on the economy as well as they might have. Emphasizing austerity measures as the cure for Britain’s economic woes failed to generate voter enthusiasm.
It’s the economy III – the Conservatives’ emphasis on government debt did not resonate especially well. Only one in ten of the BES CIPS respondents ranked government debt as most important in a list of 8 issues and two-thirds did not rank government debt as one of their top 3 most important issues.
Despite their campaign surge, the Liberal Democrats made virtually no headway as the party best on most important issue. Only 9% of the CIPS post-election respondents chose them as best.
Not Making a Case - no party had the overall pulling power on major issues that Labour enjoyed in 1997, 2001 and 2005. In the CIPS post-election survey only 25% chose Labour as best on most important issue and only 30% chose the Conservatives. The parties had big edges among various ‘issue publics’ but many of these groups were not particularly large (e.g., nearly 50% of the 3% ranking the environment most important of 8 issues voted Lib Dem).
Gordon Brown was massively unpopular. he was not seen as especially able to do the job. browns negatives piled up throughout the campaign. brown was judged to have performed poorly in all 3 televised debates, coming last in all 3. Many voters already had judged that the Labour leader and his party had run an ineffective campaign before Brown called Gillian Duffy(above) a bigoted women. these comments were widely publicized.
2010 General Election
Potential votes for Labour fell greatly between 2005 and 2010, possibly because of the deficit and Labour's recent problems like the war. Many long-term Labour voters also said they stopped supporting them because of failing policies.
The Conservatives however, hardly gained any votes between 2005 and 2010.
This may be because their views could have been shaped from when they were young and they remained partisan or loyal supporters to a party. Their views could have been influenced by the social class they grew up in, and as a result of aging, continued to hold those values. This is probably why the big two are the oldest but biggest parties in