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Supernatural Math Project

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Natalie Emmanuel

on 4 June 2014

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Transcript of Supernatural Math Project

Disclaimer: All questions and calculations are based on events that take place in the show, Supernatural. Due to the fictional nature of said events, such calculations may be inconsistent at times. We have done our best to stay accurate to the events of seasons 1-9.
Introduction
Welcome to Supernatural (Seasons 1-9). This is Sam and Dean Winchester. They're Hunters. But they hunt the...not natural things.
This is a Hunter
Hunters kill things that aren't really Human or animals, more like Supernatural things. Sometimes they hunt in groups. There's a lot, but we're only going to work with about 19.
These are the "Not Natural" Things
These creatures range from traditional things like ghosts, vampires and werewolves, to more abstract things like Leviathan, Shtriga, Changeling, and Djinn. We're going to pretend there's 34.
These are Demons
They do bad things...really bad. There's a lot of them. We're going to pretend there's only 18 though. They're kinda cool sometimes.
These are Angels
There's a bunch of them too. They're surprisingly not that friendly. They can get kind of chaotic and really egotistical. It's cause they have daddy issues. We're gonna pretend there's 27.
Hunters Need Weapons
Different creatures need to be killed with different things. There's a lot of ways to harm them. Don't try crossing the boarder with this stuff. We're narrowing the ways to kill creatures down to 15.
Scenario Time
We hope you're more logical hunters than the ones on the show. They make a lot of mistakes cause they do things in the Heat of the Moment. Bobby calls Sam and Dean Idjits. We like that word. It basically means stupid.
We're going to give some situations and use Set Theory, Counting Principles, and Probability to solve for the outcomes. Then we'll give some examples for you to try.
Controversial Fandom Discussions
Due to the fact that this show is set up in a way that makes it easy for people to pick favorites, there are a lot of things to argue about. Here are some of the arguable topics. Use the math techniques we described to come to reasonable conclusions.
Within the fandom, there is controversy over which is the better weapon to use; Ruby's Knife or an Angel Blade.
According to the data we have provided, Which is the theoretically better weapon to use?
Dean Winchester once said the best "test" weapon to take along on a hunt where the monster is unknown is something silver. Considering the number of monsters given that silver can harm, is this a plausible idea?

Mathematically, considering the amount of monsters that exist, what is the likelihood a monster that a hunter comes across will be immune to silver?
Please Observe
The types of "major character" deaths in seasons 1-8 are list below. Considering these, in Season 9, what is the probability a future "major character" will die from being stabbed based on previous deaths?

15 Stabbed
6 Demon
2 Beheaded
9 Shot
31 Other
Total 63
On the show, there are 4 archangels and 23 lesser angels. They are often seen alone or on groups of three. If an archangel always travels with two lesser angels, how many combinations of angels are there?



There are 19 hunters in total
*
. Hunting large vampire nests works best with a group of hunters. Ellen refuses to hunt without her daughter, Jo, and Jo demands she come along. If a team of 10 is being prepared to go, how many combinations are there?
Scenarios
Let's say there are 17 demons on the show. 12 have black eyes, 2 have red, 1 has yellow and 2 have white.

Sam and Dean have been called on for a demon hunt. Based on previous encounters, what is the probability the demon they find does not have black eyes?
(4C1)(23C2)
= 1012 Different combinations
Say the Campbells were invited to the hunt. There are 7 in the family but only 4 are able to make it to the hunt. How many combinations are there of Campbells and other hunters?
(4) (253)
Since Jo and Ellen take 2 spots, 17 Hunters remain. Choose 8 more to join the hunting party.
17C8+2
136+2
=138
(7C4)(12C6)
(35)(924)
Neither
Both
Angel Blade
Ruby's Knife
=32340
Angels
Archangels
Nephilim
Reapers
Demons
Hell hounds
Kitsune
15:63
...
Clearly people who favor Ruby's Knife only like it for personal preference.
Remaining 27 monsters
Can't Be Harmed by Silver
Can Be Killed and/or Harmed by Silver
Shape Shifter
Werewolf
Skinwalker
Wraith
Djinn
Pishtaco
Wendigo
Fairy
Total: 8
Ghost
Demon
Tulpa
Shtriga
Hell Hound
Leprechaun
Phoenix
Angel
Okami
Shojo
Changeling
Rugaru
Zombie
Arachne
Ghoul
Jefferson Starship
Archangel
Nephilim
Reaper
Kitsune
Knights of Hell
Leviathan
Dragon
Siren
Vampire
Buruburu
Total: 26
Monster Classification
Toxic, Poisonous, or Infectious
Changeling
Djinn
Arachne

Total: 3
Vampire
Werewolf
Skinwalker

Total: 3
Jefferson Starships
Vetala

Total: 2
Wendigo
Dragon
Kitsune
Shojo

Total: 4
Inhuman Eyes/Powers
Claws and/or Teeth
Buruburu
Sirens

Total: 2
Other
5:17
So 23.8%
Which is pretty low considering there were at least 5 major character stabbing "deaths" during season 9
So there is a 29.4% chance that Sam and Dean will encounter a demon with red yellow or white eyes.
4
3
This is Bobby. Sometimes he's an idjit too... Shh, don't tell him.
(Spoilers: That up there is the approximate probability of part Dean Winchester's Season 9 Finale surprise...)
Leviathan
Okami
Hellhound

Total: 3
Demon
Phoenix
Angel
Shapeshifter
Wraith
Fairy
Tulpa
Shtriga
Leprechaun
Pishtaco
Ghost
2
Rugaru
Zombie
Ghoul
Archangel
Nephilim
Reaper

Total: 15
* excludes the Ghostfacers
Total Monsters: 34
12 Fit into more than one category
(Likely more dangerous)
10 are Toxic, Poisonous, or Infectious
24 have Inhuman Eyes/Powers
12 have Claws and/or Teeth

100% find Humans delicious and/or entertaining to terrorize

References:

http://www.supernaturalwiki.com/index.php?title=Main_Page
http://chestiel.tumblr.com/post/83116881173/supernatural-in-infographics-seasons-1-8-click
http://kimstheworst.tumblr.com/post/83683302757/for-those-playing-the-home-game-this-means-that-as
Big thanks to Tumblr in general for fueling our frenzied fire

Supernatural. Kripke, Eric. The CW Network. 2005. Television.

Jessica Aitchison, one of, if not the biggest Supernatural fan/Destiel shipper we know



Credibility Reflection:

Of course, because this project is so heavily fandom based, it is subject to heavy scrutiny. We can not guarantee all the statements in this project are 100% correct because to begin with, the show is fictional (shh, don't tell the fangirls), and many of our personal opinions are expressed. We, even as super fans, do not know the show completely inside and out, and are subject to forget details or have biased opinions after growing with the characters and actors for 9 seasons and counting. Supernatural will never be a truly predictable science because it is all under the directors, writers, and actors artistic visions. Therefore this entire project is just predictions, adding to the ever growing controversy. We also acknowledge that because our sources are also heavily fan based, there is a far margin for error.

A technical reminder:
Though there are references to season 9 in this presentation, much of our data was based on Seasons 1-8. Sorry if there are any spoilers.
26:8
26/34 = 0.7647
Approx. 76%

Full transcript