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WateRisk DSS and "Szamos-Kraszna" pilot area
Transcript of WateRisk DSS and "Szamos-Kraszna" pilot area
Excess water Worldwide water resources related problems Scenarios based evaluation climate change scenarios land-use scenarios water-demand predictions water governance alternatives Soil database management Economic surveys and evaluations Introduction M e t h o d o l o g y Pilot Area Results Conclusion Area parameters:
Extent: 400 km2
5 groundwater wells
excess water drainage protection network
mostly intensive agricultural land-use Specification of the hydrological model Parameter
100x100 m cell size
overall ~45000 cells
Soil defined by grids (same horizontal resolution, 15 cm vertical res.)
River system with detailed cross-sections
Drainage system with trapezoid cross section
Operation rules for pumping and flapgate system WateRisk projekt Aim
dealing with extreme water resources phenomenon by
developing a methodology and water management decision support system (WateRisk DSS)
and evaluting 3 pilot areas by it
Universities and research centers, Civil company and NGO Initial groundwater head Capillary rise Measured and calculated extent of water covarage by excess water inundation Measured - Calculated 1D river model Calibration Sensitivity analysis Desciption of the site Desciption of the area Scenario building Integrated hydrologic modelling (WR IHM) Agricultural crop yield estimation in case of current and alternative land-use [billion Ft] Estimating ecosystem services in case of current and alternative land-use Groundwater wells measured and calculated time series With protection drainage network - Without protection drainage network Durability map: average number of days in a year covered by excess water Average groundwater level [mBf.] (left: A2, right: control) Average soil saturatiion (upper 1 m layer) (left: A2, right: control scenario) Average transpiracion deficit of crops [mm] (right: control, left: B2 scenario) Risk [Ft/ha] (left: control, right: B2 scenario) The hydrologycal processes influencing directly the excess water induation (season of 1999) Groundwater level and watercoverage extent of excess water inundation Post-processing Crop yield calculation Forest incerement Residential damage calclations Excess water inundation Climate change Results related to climate change scenarios:
the drought will probably increase in the area according to hydrological simulations:
the transpiration deficit of crops will increase by 40-50%;
the average soil saturation (upper 1 m layer) will decrease by 10-20%;
the average groundwater level will decrease by 60 cm;
The extent and duration of excess water inundation will decrease;
The risk related to agricultural production will decrease. Evaluated scenarios
"Present" scenario: 20 years, present conditions
"Without protection system": 20 years, present conditions without drainage network system
"CTR": climate change control scenario, present land-use and draingage network system
"B2": climate change B2 scenario, present land-use and draingage network system
"A2": climate change A2 scenario, present land-use and draingage network system
"CTR with alternative landuse": climate change control scenario, alternative land-use without network system, wetland (flood storage)
"B2 with alternative landuse": climate change B2 scenario, alternative land-use without network system, wetland (flood storage) Alternative land-use Economic pre-processing GIS database and management PRUDENCE DATABASE
downscalings of DMI
30 years long meteorological time series
A2 and B2 scenarios Creating 3D soil phisical database
integrating different soil databases
10 cm vertical distribution in upper 1 m layer
50 cm vertical distibution in deeper layers Present conditions: protection drainage network and pumping system Alternative: without protection drainage network and pumping system Present conditions: intensive agriculture domanites the land-use Alternative land-use: extensive agriculture with more grazing land, flooded forest, wetland World-wide water management problems
Increasing water scarcity
Effect of climate change
Increasing water demand
Disfunctional water management practices Insecurity increasing in estimation
The results suggest that complex hydrologic-hydrodynamic phenomena can be described by the developed WR IHM (surface-subsurface-river water interactions).
Scenarios of climate change highlighted the possibility of more frequent occurrences of drought.
Adaptive land-scale plannig can result in increased ecosystem services.
The hazard map of the area has been created as well, which is an obligation by EU Flood Directive. historic land-use and water management survey
Interviews with local stakeholders, Q-method analysis
water demand and other economic predictions
... Necessity of strategies and policies based on complex decision support ! Less profit, but the area of croplands is decreased by 2/3 compared to present conditions ! Pilot area
Appropriate tool for analysing water management scenarios even in case of large regions with complex hydrology phenomena.
The results can be a basis of:
adaptation to climate change;
agricultural suitability concepts and plans;
adaptive landscape management;
risk assessment... WateRisk DSS
Water appears on the terrain, not directly coming from surface waters. It is influenced by several conditions:
snow melts on a frozen soil
high groundwater level
damages to residential properties
damages to agriculture
water can stored on the land (wetland, irrigation...) Effect of excess water Excess water indundation "Szamos-Kraszna" Interfluve One among the 3 pilot areas.
It is heavily affected by excess water. land-use dependent!