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Starburst Distribution

By Sheila Burgin and Sarah Nichols
by

Sheila Burgin

on 7 December 2015

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Transcript of Starburst Distribution

Starburst Distribution
Confounding Variables
Wrigley Company states that the distribution of Starburst candy flavors is evenly distributed at 25%.

"However, because the bags are filled by weight and by machinery, the actual distribution may vary." Tammy Sampson, Wrigley Representative.
Collecting Data
In a 41oz. bag, are the burst of flavors evenly distributed?
What did the data show?
Distribution Chart
Observation
Mean = 58
Variance = 58
Standard Error = 3.8079
Median = 60.5

Measure of center tells us if the bag were 100% evenly distributed, one would expect there to be 58 pieces or 25% of each chewy burst of flavor per bag.
Confidence Interval
Random Sample - 232 Starburst

Cherry - 27%
Strawberry - 25%
Lemon - 28%
Orange - 20%

Initial observation?
Orange is unevenly distributed and appears to be an outlier.
Statistical Inference
Using a 95% Confidence Interval and a 0.05 level of significance, we tested Wrigley's claim with a "Goodness of Fit" test.

Test results landed in the fail to reject region.
Test results show...
With 95% confidence there is not enough evidence to reject Wrigley's claim that each flavor is evenly distributed.
Reflection
Although orange appeared to be unevenly distributed, it was not different enough to skew the distribution proportion.
Was orange really an outlier? No!
Test results support the manufacturer's claim.
Strawberry was too evenly distributed to satisfy Sarah's strawberry sweet tooth craving!
In hindsight...
Increasing our sample size by purchasing more than one 41 oz. bag may have made our analysis even more accurate.

It also would have provided Sarah with more strawberry Starburst chews!
Hypothesis Claim
Ho: Starburst flavors are evenly distributed (claim)

Ha: Starburst flavors are not evenly distributed.
Full transcript