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Breakthroughs in Computing

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Brad Templeton

on 14 November 2013

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Transcript of Breakthroughs in Computing

What makes an exponential revolution?
Insatiable market demand for
doubling, little demand for
incremental improvement

Free Space Optical (FSO) at 160 gigabits (Pisa)
THZ radio link at 3 Gbps, some day 30 Gbps
Time for “Glass Roots” to enable real competition

Fiber now 1.1 Pbits
per second with

100 billion
calls at once!
LAN Wireless
Picocell approach offers unlimited bandwidth
Haas: Wireless through LED bulbs
Reardon claims “DIDO” system offers full bandwidth to every device in the room
Low power “personal area networks” coming
Spectrum allocation becoming obsolete
But others want to auction and own it
Cognitive Radio
Network “management” & neutrality
Battles more political than technical

GPUs generating too much heat
Portability requires low power
Contact lens projector the holy grail
Registration on real world difficult
VR sports, gaming & shopping
Augmented/Alternate reality games
In Graphics
Looking to
bridge the
"Uncanny Valley"

User Interface Breakthroughs
Replacement for the keyboard needed
Speech Recognition,, natural language & translate
Siri, Watson still have far to go
Gesture interfaces from 3-D cameras
Haptic feedback
Displays & touch
All while small & efficient
The ball-n-chain: System Administration
Is the Apple “walled garden” the only answer?
Improve performance in face of complexity
Provide real time operations
Virtual machines
Cloud computing and apps
Software development needs better re-use
Ambient Intelligence
Cheap sensors
MEMS based gyros, accelerometers
Temperature, current/magnetic fields, pressure
Nanotech chemical & DNA sensors
Tiny cameras & new camera technologies
Cheap processing
Open hardware like Arduino
Ultra low power embedded chips (1μa asleep)
Query powered (RFID)
No, not for the smart fridge – still looking for the pony
Coded Aperture Camera
Challenges in interoperability and competition
Will the market accept one dominant “AOL” site for everything?
The challenge of “too much signal.”
How does privacy survive?
Ease of use vital
Global trends seen in streams:
Twitter analysis predicts movie gross
Critical mass vs. open
Distributed efforts have uphill battle
The Controlled Platform
Less Controlled
Monopoly Platform
One site for everything
The Giant Gateway to the Web
(but also Facebook)
One Store,
One Big Cloud
A Vast, Usually Interoperable Bazaar
Who will win?
Who should win?

Online Commerce
Superb realism
People buying online from competitor while in physical store
Retailers pray for location based services
Delivery robots promise anything in 30 minutes
Look at your software strategy -- will it work in the multicore cloud future?
Look at your payment and banking systems. What has to change with low-friction digital money?
Evaluate your software systems in the context of "immediate" computing and ubiquitous connectivity
Look at your technology strategies. Are you being open and stupid today in order to be smart tomorrow?
Chip-Multiprocessors: “Single-Chip Cloud” Datacenter on a Chip
48 (45 nm)
Chip-Multiprocessors: High Performance Technical Computing
32 cores X 16-wide-vector ≈ 1 TFLOPS peak
Chip-Multiprocessors: Laptop
2 (32 nm)
Chip-Multiprocessors: Server
8 (32 nm)
Platforms with a
Culture of Innovation



"Miners" hunt for words that meet a magic test
First to find writes on scroll, verifying it for all
People are anonymous but transactions aren't
No repudiation or ability to fix errors
Probably not the final currency
Lots of legal battles
Lots of startup investment

Networking everywhere
New user interfaces
Cheap sensors & Low Energy Computing
Parallel Software
Digital Money
Controversies & Misconceptions

Spectrum and Bandwidth are abundant
Will Moore's Law continue?
Will nations stop anonymous money?
Whose model will rule the net?
Is there a true internet of things?

Tools & Resources

Wired Online
The Cathedral and the Bazaar (Eric Raymond)
ITRS Roadmap
Full transcript