Transcript: INTERNATIONAL FINANCE 1. Fixed Exchange Rates. fixed, or pegged, rate is a rate the government (central bank) sets and maintains as the official exchange rate. A set price will be determined against a major world currency In order to maintain the local exchange rate, the central bank buys and sells its own currency on the foreign exchange market in return for the currency to which it is pegged. i.e 1$ = P40 finance examines the dynamics of the global financial system, international monetary systems, balance of payments, exchange rates, foreign direct investment, and how these topics relate to international trade Scope and Methodology Markets in financial assets tend to be more volatile than markets in goods and services because decisions are more often revised and more rapidly put into effect. international finance tends to involve greater uncertainties and risks because the assets that are traded are claims to flows of returns that often extend many years into the future. The economics of international finance do not differ in principle from the economics of international trade. Differences include; is the branch of financial economics broadly concerned with monetary and macroeconomic interrelations between two or more countries •Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) – e.g. Nissan building factor in England •Portfolio Flows – short term capital, e.g. taking advantage of different interest rates •Bank transfers. 2.Floating Exchange Rates is determined by the private market through supply and demand. A floating rate is often termed "self-correcting," as any differences in supply and demand will automatically be corrected in the market. EXCHANGE RATES CAPITAL MOBILITY Ability of the private funds to move across national boundaries in pursuit of higher returns. This mobility depends on the absence of currency restriction on the inflows and outflows of capital. is the rate at which one currency can be exchanged for another. the value of another country's currency compared to that of your own
Transcript: KPMG-FTSE - Chinas Capital Markets Deutsche Bank - Chinas Financial Markets Since 2006, state owned banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Bank of China and China Development Bank (CDB) have accounted for more than 50% of the total disclosed deal value. By the end of 2007, Chinese banks had opened a total of 60 branches and subsidiaries in 29 countries around the globe with combined assets of USD 267.4 bn. Source : The banker “top 10000 world banks” In view of the increasing scale of the credit market however, china is still in it´s infancy in terms of credit derivatives. On 5 novembre 2010 china´s first bach of credit risk mitigation instruments was formally launched. A instit made the first 20 deals in respect of credit risk mitigation agreements, with nominal value totalling rmb 184 billions China’s Financial Markets China has had many reforms on the regulation of financial markets with the purpose of improve efficiency, transparency and strengthen the market. China will continue the reform process gradually to achieve a good basis for sustainable development in the future. China Investment Corporation (CIC) China Development Bank (CDB) People’s Bank of China (PBC) State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) Chinese stock market The Chinese state has used various public vehicles to pursue international investments in the past : Development of the credit rating industry in China And one more thing... Bond markets, securities, banks Thank you for your attention! China’s State Council has declared its intention to develop Shanghai into an international financial center for 2020 to compete directly with locations such as London and New York. However, Shanghai’s prospects over the remainder of the decade will clearly be shaped by several factors : The roll out of the International Board Currency liberalisation Talent Tax competitiveness Why invest abroad? Conclusion 1978-1992: Capital markets emerged, economic reforms took place. 1993-1998: Strengthening of the capital markets, the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) it is crated. 1999-2007: Formalization and strengthening of the legal status of the capital markets. If we compared industrial countries with China’s financial markets we can see that this one is shallow but in the BRIC China markets leads. Typically in developing capital markets the institutional investors are more than the retail investor but in China the institutional investors accounted for only 30% and retail investors for more than 50% in 2007. Bibliography Shanghai: There are some share dealing tracked to 1860’s, the Shanghai Stock Exchange was created in 1904 and in 1909 was created Shanghai Sharebrokers finally in 1929 the two of then were unified. Shenzhen: 1986 at this time some companies began to operated, in 1990 the Shenzhen stock Exchange was open. Hong Kong: Dates back to 1866 but the first stock market was established in 1891, in 1921 a second exchange “Hong Kong Stockbrokers association” was incorporated by 1980 three more were consolidated to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. While China bond markets are becoming more open, restrictions still exsist in same key areas. On 11 May 2009 China National Petroleum Corporation issued a USD 1 Billon 3-year term note in the inter-bank bond market to support the financing of its overseas projects. It was the first foreing currency bond issued domestically by a Chinese non financial institution The government has adopted policies to promote the issuance of US dollar bonds in the domestic inter-bank bond market to replace the foreign debts — which are costly to service – of relevant large and mid-sized state-owned enterprises. The market maker system was stablished for China Bonds in 2007. On the one hand, the composition of bond issuers is uneven. More than 80 percent of the depository balance comprises government bonds, central bank notes and financial bonds and there has been a comparatively slow development of credit bonds. On the other hand, the approval and regulatory organizations are still not unified and a market-oriented issuance system has yet to be realized. THE CHINESE STATE – A GLOBAL INVESTOR China’s banks have the money to expand abroad. Strong foreign interest in Chinese banks has led to huge sums in IPOs, and most of the larger Chinese banks successfully attracted one or more strategic foreign investors. In addition international M&A activity of Chinese FIs can be broadly separated into two categories: 1) Financial investments 2) More strategically motivated ones Outlook for the next decade Source : The banker “top 10000 world banks” Recent Innovations China it is a country that have a high level of bureaucracy and that it is involve largely in the financial sector in order to regulated and diversify their massive reserves and generate strong returns via long term investment. Holding With acumulated experience, increased competition and stronger supervision, China´s credit rating agencies
Transcript: = Through acquired shares, mergers or joined ventures, investing firms seek to grasp significant control & influence over foreign organizations. Long-Term investments (value investing) Capital - Foreign Companies invest abroad - Foreign governments loan to other nations - Venture capitalists invest in foreign companies By: Christian, Anoja & Zubi one party delivers an agreed-upon currency amount to the counter party and receives a specified amount of another currency at the agreed-upon exchange rate value. After a position is closed, the settlement is in cash. Global success fuels more success, more investment, more growth, more jobs and more consumer spending around the world. = FOREIGN INVESTING Jobs Taxes INTERNATIONAL FINANCE Purchase of stocks, bonds and other financial instruments from a foreign stock exchange Invest in foreign growth companies or countries for the short term 2. Futures Market Jobs New foreign capital creates more jobs, governments can build new infrastructure and businesses expand. = = THE FOREX MARKET Loans = = The foreign exchange market or the currency market is a "place" where currencies are traded. Salaries Futures are financial contracts obligating the buyer to purchase an asset (or the seller to sell an asset), such as a physical commodity or a financial instrument, at a predetermined future date and price. = 1. Spot Market New Firms THE RELATIONSHIP: FINANCE & BUSINESS Capital Projects Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) GLOBALIZATION OF FINANCING Portfolio Investments Spending = Jobs Saving
Transcript: Currency System Commodity Standards Foreign exchange rate Foreign exchange market What is the foreign exchange rate? OPTION FORWAD OTC market Balance of payment Introduction International credit SPOT FUTURE Exchange market Gold Standard SWAP How to calculate the foreign exchange rate?
Transcript: Barings Bank (1762 to 1995) was the oldest merchant bank in London, founded and owned by the German-origined Baring family. The bank collapsed in 1995 after one of the bank's employees, Nick Leeson, lost £827 million ($1.3 billion) due to speculative investing, primarily in futures contracts, at the bank's Singapore office. The $1.3 billion loss incurred by Nick Leeson exceeded Barings Bank's capital, while the much larger losses incurred at JPMorgan only dented that bank's "fortress." Barings was brought down in 1995 due to unauthorized trading by its head derivatives trader in Singapore, Nick Leeson. At the time of the massive trading loss, Leeson was supposed to be arbitraging, seeking to profit from differences in the prices of Nikkei 225 futures contracts listed on the Osaka Securities Exchange in Japan and the Singapore International Monetary Exchange. Instead of buying on one market and immediately selling on another market for a small profit, the strategy approved by his superiors, Leeson bought on one market then held on to the contract, gambling on the future direction of the Japanese markets. since 1990, there have been 16 instances when traders lost at least $1 billion - shareholders suffer losses - counter parties are exposed to potential settlement failure in over-the-counter markets - bank regulators face the prospect of individual insolvencies - systemic problems in the financial market - public is always in difficult situation ... Trading losses ... by Sameh Zoabi Sameh Zoabi The 15 trading losses total nearly $60 billion and range from a low of $1.1 billion on ill-fated foreign exchange derivatives at a Japanese Shell Oil subsidiary to a high of $9 billion on credit default swaps at Morgan Stanley Four of the firms are banks: Société Générale, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, and Deutsche Bank; Two are investment banks: Morgan Stanley, which became a bank the year after the loss,and Barings Bank; To are hedge funds: Amaranth Advisors and Long Term Capital Management; One is local government: Orange County; Six are manufacturing or petrochemical firms. Thank you Barings bank Despite popular perception, trading losses are not unique to the banking industry. In fact, the majority of large trading losses of the past 20 years have occurred at non-banks. Trading losses may also be more problematic for non-banks than for banks. None of the banks that experienced sizeable losses had their solvency seriously jeopardized, and just Société Générale was required to raise outside capital, which it did without difficulty. In contrast, four of the nonbanks were made insolvent (Amaranth Advisors, Barings Bank, LTCM, and Orange County), and two were forced to accept takeover bids from other firms (Aracruz Celulose and CITIC Pacific). Template by Missing Link Images from Shutterstock.com ... In terms of financial instruments: -$19 billion of losses are due to credit derivatives -$12 billion are due to commodity derivatives -$11.9 billion of losses were due to equity derivative trading -$8 billion are due to fixed income derivatives ; - $8 billion were due to foreign exchange trades
Transcript: Photo based on: 'horizon' by pierreyves @ flickr Matt Reikowsky Barry Runnels Allen Ramsey Chapter 10 Our demand for business could decrease if we changed our invoice policy. The depreciation of the peso would lessen it purchasing power towards the American dollar. If we changed our invoice to US dollars, it would cause our services to become more expensive to customers paying in pesos thus, causing us to lose business to our competitors who kept their invoices in the Mexican peso. So basically exposure to the local currency’s appreciation and depreciation would affect the demand for our business if we changed our invoice policy. Why might the demand for your business change if you change your invoice policy? What are the implications for your economic exposure? You are already aware that a decline in the value of the peso could reduce your dollar cash flows. Yet, according to purchasing power parity, a weak peso should occur only in response to a high level of Mexican inflation, and such high inflation should increase your profits. If this theory holds precisely, your cash flows would not really be exposed. Should you be conerned about your exposure, or not? Explain. If you change your policy and invoice only in dollars, how will your transaction exposure be affected? The company will still have transaction exposure, the type of exposure will have just changed. - Since the US dollar is more stable than the Mexican Peso, the currency volatility will have decreased because the majority of cash flows will be in US dollars. - Because of the change in currencys being invoiced, the exchange rate movements will now move in the opposite direction. - Because the company is invoicing in dollars, if the Mexican Peso appreciates the language instruction courses will become more expensive to the Mexicans, whereas before the change in the invoice currency if the Peso appreciated the class would become cheaper. Answer: Yes. You can not assume the inflation rate will perfectly offset the depreciation of the peso. Even if the inflation does perfectly offset that does not mean you will achieve profits large enough to match the country's rate of inflation You may not be able to increase the price due to competiton
Transcript: Option values increase with the length of time to maturity. The expected change in the option premium from a small change in the time to expiration is termed theta: Theta = (D Premium) /(D Time) The foreign exchange options market is the deepest, largest and most liquid market for options of any kind The Currency options are one of the best tool available to hedge foreign exchange exposures in various foreign exchange market conditions, like volatile, stagnant, bullish, bearish, etc http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign-exchange_option https://www.google.co.in/search http://icai.org/resource_file/9901773-778.pdf Holder Writer Call Put Strike Price Premium Spot Rate Sensitivity (Delta): Conclusion Group Members Tailored to the specific needs of the firm For example, a firm that faces a future outflow of CAD might buy a call option on CAD at strike price X. The ensuing right to buy CAD at X means that this firm will pay no more than X per CAD. Similarly, buying a put is like buying an insurance contract against the risk of low exchange rates. For example, a firm that faces a future inflow of CAD might buy a put option on CAD at strike price X. The ensuing right to sell CAD at X means that this firm will get no less than X per CAD. Options Premiums and Option Writing Time to Maturity Sensitivity (Theta): Volatility Sensitivity (Lambda): Options Premiums Option volatility is defined as the standard deviation of daily percentage changes in the underlying exchange rate. The expected change in the option premium for a small change in volatility is termed lambda Lambda = (D Premium)/(D Volatility) Option Pricing and Valuation Foreign Currency Options It occurs when the speculator believes the spot price at some future date will differ from today's forward price for that same date. Spot CAD/INR 29.9280/29.9330 (+)1 month FM 00.0200-00.0250 1month FR 29.9480-29.9580 A foreign currency option is a contract giving the option purchaser (the buyer) the right to buy or sell a fixed amount of foreign exchange at a fixed price per unit for a specified time period. American Option European Option At-the-Money (ATM) In-the-Money (ITM) Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Exchange-Traded Options Foreign Currency Speculation Options Vocabulary Over-the-Counter (OTC) Market: Time value Another idea that options exchanges have borrowed from futures markets is Standardization. FOREIGN CURRENCY OPTIONS Finally, options that are in-the-money are more valuable than options that are out-of-the money. Thus, an increase in the strike price reduces the option premium for call options and increases it for put options. Webliography Speculating on the Option Markets The price that is quoted for immediate settlement on a commodity, a security or a currency. Suppose the exchange rate today is Rs.40/USD. The speculator anticipates this rate to become 41/USD within few days. Under these circumstances , he will buy USD $1,000 for Rs 40000 and hold this amount for some days , when the target exchange rate is reached , he will sell USD $1000 at the new exchange rate , that is at Rs.41 per dollar and earn a profit of Rs. 41000- 40000 =Rs.1000 Time value is known as the amount an investor is willing to pay for an option above its intrinsic value, in the hope that at some time prior to expiration its value will increase because of a favorable change in the price of the underlying asset The pricing of a currency option combines 6 elements. The premium is based on 1. The forward rate 2. The current spot rate 3. The time to maturity 4. The volatility of the underlying asset 5. The home and foreign interest rates 6. The strike price 2. Exchange Trade Options Options writing is any option trading strategy that involves selling options. The primary objective in options writing is to earn the premium paid by the option buyer. Option writing does not involve any actual writing of a contract. The value of an option is the sum of two components: Option value = Intrinsic value + Time value Call Option: The buyer of a call option purchases it in the hope that the price of the underlying instrument will rise in the future. The seller of the option either expects that it will not Put Option: An option contract giving the owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specified amount of an underlying security at a specified price within a specified time Foreign Currency Options Options Vocabulary Options Market Options premium & writing Foreign Currency Speculation Option Pricing & Valuation Conclusion Speculating on the Spot Market The amount per share that an option buyer pays to the seller is Option premium. Factors such as interest rates, market conditions, and the dividend rate of the underlying stock affect the premium option. Standard foreign currency options are priced around the forward rate because the current spot rate and both the domestic and foreign interest rates are included in the option premium calculation Regardless of the specific strike rate, the forward
Transcript: 06/11/2017 Sinndhu Praaasanth Hanu Suria Dewishree RETURN OR LOSS FROM PORTFOLIO SELECTING AND PROPORTIONING PORTFOLIO PURPOSE OF INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO Has been given a responsible by a director to his client to handle a portfolio amounted as RM1, 000,000. Thus, based on the information given by the director, we have chosen to create a portfolio which includes three different currencies of: • Great British Pound (GBP) • Australian Dollar (AUD) • Canadian Dollar (CAD) Make justification for chosen currencies and the historical exchange rate movement of each currencies towards Malaysian Ringgit for the past 12 months. JUSTIFICATION FOR CHOICE OF CURRENCY 1 GBP 2 AUD 3 CAD known as the pound sterling fourth most traded currency in the forex market. acts as a large reserve currency due to its relative value compared to other global currencies. . Forex traders will often base its value on the overall strength of the British economy and political stability of its government. Due to its high value relative to its peers, the pound is also an important currency benchmark for many nations and acts as a very liquid component in the forex market. There are two main benefits of a mighty dollar. The first is that a higher currency, in effect, means that every Australian has had a pay rise. For a stronger dollar allows us to buy more imports. This is the mechanism by which all Australians benefited from the mining boom. The second benefit is that a rising currency reduces inflationary pressures as the prices of imports decline in Australian dollars. That allows the Reserve Bank of Australia to set interest rates at a lower level than otherwise. The Canadian Dollar is probably the world's foremost commodity currency, meaning that it moves in step with the commodities markets, notably crude oil, precious metals and minerals. With Canada being such a large exporter of such commodities the Lonnie is very volatile to movements in their underlying prices, especially crude oil. Traders often trade the Canadian dollar to speculate on the movements of these commodities or as a hedge to their holdings of those underlying contracts. HISTORICAL EXHANGE RATE MOVEMENT HISTORICAL EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENT OF EACH CURRENCY TOWARDS MALAYSIAN CURRENCY FOR THE PAST 12 MONTHS - It’s clearly shown that value of exchange rate of GBP started to increase on 1st of December 2016 lose the grip as of the end on 2nd December 2017. -The highest value recorded is 4.4925, while the lowest value that dropped off was at the beginning of the historical rate movement which is 4.1875 -AUD’s value expanded on 1st December at the value of 3.3017 and quickly plunge on 1st march 2017 at value of 3.2409 , the value isn’t stable as it keep switching from 3.2 to 3.4. -The highest value recorded is 3.3950, meanwhile, the lowest value would be 3.1763 on 1st June 2017. -Finally, concluding the CAD highest value is on 2nd October 2017 as 3. 4359, while the lowest value is stated on 1st November which is 3.1264. -Based on the CAD’s exchange rate movement, the value extended as of 1st December 2016 and faced the excessive descending on May and June 2017. GRAPH LINE JUSTIFICATION FOR FINAL PERFOMANCE - The Great British pound, It also acts as a large reserve currency due to its relative value compared to other global currencies. -Although it’s the world’s fourth most traded exchange rate currency , it still manages to get an expectation of getting high return on investment compared to Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar as per the historical data that has been provided above from November 2016 to October 2017. -Literally Forex traders will often base its value on the overall strength of the British economy and political stability of its government. Due to its high value relative to its peers, the pound is an important currency benchmark for many nations and acts as a very liquid component in the forex market which is also the reason why we choose to invest in GBP . -One factor that affects exchange rate is capital flows. As financial assets become more global, capital flows to constantly between countries in search of higher reporting rates. The Canadian dollar and Australian dollar fell as the Fed raised interest rates. -we choosed to invest in BRITISH POUND (GBP) currency.The proportion of money allocated are 40% and to gain profit at 9,757.63. -Besides, The proportion of money allocated to invest in AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (AUD) currency 40% where there will be a loss of 10,127.22. -Lastly , The proportion of money allocated for CANADIAN DOLLAR currency are 20% where there will be a loss of 2437.68. - Both the currencies are to face loss as the respective countries are facing inflation as high debt typically precedes it. This eventually result in a loss of country’s currency causing low confidence for the investors to invest . JUSTIFICATION FOR THE PROPOSED INVESTMENT DIVISION PIE CHART . BRITISH POUND (GBP) Based on the line graph that has been ploted from the historical data
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