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Transcript: Depreciation of Rupee How Foreign Exchange works IMPACT Person B Eurozone Crisis and expected recession created lack of trust in the market. Investors started buying US Dollars, the so called "Safe Haven". Study 1: Infosys High Import Costs Inflation Huge FII Losses Increase in Debt Burden Profits for Export and Services Industry Increasing cost of Oil CAUSES Current Crisis Thank You INR to USD Recommendations Markets fell around 25 % since the start of the year, but losses for overseas investors has been around 36 % due to rupee depreciation. Losses have been specially severe for investments in Oil and Import oriented companies. In this uncertainty, investors began selling Indian stocks, foreign currency began to pour out. FII's withdrew approx 500 million $ in the last week of November from Indian Markets. Money previously reaching India was now headed to other Emerging Markets like Brazil, Mexico. Lack of Reforms Tools with RBI Person A wants to convert his dollars to rupees Fortune 500 technology services company Major revenue: IT services and consulting clients in over 30 countries. 85% of revenues from abroad, with major inflow in US Dollars. Posted 33% increase in quarterly profits aided by falling rupee. Person A Oil Companies Timeline Person B wants to convert his rupees to dollars DECEMBER 15 Rupee hits record low of 54.30/$ DECEMBER 15 RBI decides to crack down on speculation by: Barring residents and foreign institutions from rebooking forward contacts Cutting overnight open positions banks keep. DECEMBER 16 The central bank acts to improve dollar supply by removing interest rate ceiling on NRI deposits DECEMBER 19 MFIs allowed to raise up to $10 million via ECBs through automatic route Global Economic Uncertainty Persistent Inflation Capital Outflow Trade Deficit Lack of Reforms FOREIGN EXCHANGE The government can take initiatives which encourage and increase the flow of foreign investments into India. Recent steps taken by the government allowing increase in the investment limit in government security and corporate bonds is in the right direction. Government can consider temporary import compression. Allow FDI in retail and aviation. Person A USD to INR Depreciating rupee makes import of crude oil expensive which directly leads to an increase in the operating expense of the companies, thereby decreasing profit margins. Stocks of the major oil companies have tanked by almost a third in the last six months of 2011 as they had to sell the petroleum products under the cost price. Study 2: Tata Steel Person B,C,D,E India is structurally an import intensive country. Due to high and persistent current deficits, the input costs will rise on account of rupee depreciation. It will particularly hit the Industrial sector and increase price of essential commodities, raw materials, oil, thereby increasing final product prices. Exactly opposite is the case for export and Services companies with major inflow in US Dollars. Depreciating rupee is not only impacting the import bill, it has also severely affected the cost of borrowings for the corporate sector. Indian companies have borrowed close to $29 billion in foreign currencies, through ECBs (External Commercial Borrowing) and FCCBs (Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds), since the beginning of 2011. FII losses Increase in Debt Burden Growth Prospects World's 10th largest steelmaker. Major Expenses: Raw materials, Energy. TATA Steel posted a quarterly loss of RS. 687 crores. Rupee depreciation being one of the reasons which lead to high input and raw material costs. Capital Outflow Using FOREX Reserves Easing capital control Encourage capital inflows Inflation and Trade Imports far in excess of exports, pressurized the rupee. Trade deficit figures were consistently around 10 billion $ for the past six months. Assume, many people have INR and they all want USD whereas just one guy wants the reverse. He will quote extra as demand for Dollar is high and dollar will appreciate. Very few reforms in the past years. The policies are getting increasingly populist. FDI in retail was proposed but not passed due to strong opposition. FDI in aviation, not passed yet. Trade Deficits Assume, many people have INR and they all want USD whereas just one guy wants the reverse. He will quote extra as demand for Dollar is high and dollar will appreciate. Exchange rate system was changed from fixed to floating as India faced high inflation, large government budget deficits and BOP crisis . By the end of 1999, the Indian Rupee was devalued considerably. In the period 2000–2007, the Rupee stopped declining and stabilized in the range between 1 USD = INR 44–48. In 2008 Rupee traded around 39 Rs to 1 US dollar , on sustained foreign investment flows into the country. Before the current crisis, rupee traded between 44-49. Rupee Dollar history since 1991 Inflation had been around 10% for the past two years. This being a persistent problem led to strong negative sentiments among the

The Indian Rupee

Transcript: 8.5% unemployment rate Gandhi on every note Increase in size as they increase in value Current Exchange Rate Victoria Portrait series Current Rupee Despite recent crash, there is hope for long-term growth in the future Many are very optimistic about economic prospects British Colonization Replaced image on coins in 1858 Mahatma Gandhi Series 1996 New security features new watermark windowed security thread intaglio features Balance of Payments Political Risks The smallest unit of the Indian currency is a Paisa 100 Paise = 1 Rupee A Paisa is like a penny in the US The Indian Rupee After Independence Issuing coins since 6th century BCE Mughal period brought uniform currency On the whole, generally stable and safe, but conflicts reduce desire to trade It was decided in 1949 that the emblem of India, the Lion Capital of Ashoka, would appear on the Rupees Underprint Series 9.3% inflation rate George V Series Very diverse 1 USD = 63.24 Indian Rupees 1,650 Rupees is equivalent to only about 26 USD In the Future Some tension between India and China Foreign Exchange Controls Because of the recent depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar, the RBI just put new controls in place The overseas investment limit on Indian businesses has been cut from 400% of a company's net worth to 100% State oil companies are exempt The amount an individual can send overseas each fiscal year was reduced from $200,000 (USD) to $75,000 (USD) The importation of gold coins and gold bars has been banned The Rupee Developing into an open-market economy traces of past autarkic policies are still present The Indian Economy History of the Rupee Really struggling to keep its value against the US dollar In August, hit a record low Gained independence in 1947 As of 2011, only coins worth 50 Paise or more are in circulation Outlook for medium-term growth is positive, but the country faces long-term challenges poverty and corruption are two huge obstacles Smallest Unit Continued fighting between India and Pakistan Value of the Rupee GDP (per capita): $3,900 Exchange Rate Trends Occasional unpredictable bursts of violence

Indian Rupee

Transcript: Indian companies rely heavily on imports for materials and equipment that they cannot buy within India, and the costs of those imports are surging as the rupee falls, limiting gains in Indian competitiveness Indian equity market is weakening a declining rupee triggers inflation broadens the current account deficit The main monetary unit of India is the Rupee. It can be divided into 5, 10, 100, 500, and 1000 paise. There are also 1, 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, 150, 1000 rupee coins. Symbol for paper currency: Lion Capital at Sarnath. This location is where Buddha gave his first sermon. In 1996, Mahatma Gandhi was added to the paper currency. Coins: Ashok-Stambha represents peace and nonviolence. Indian Rupee Maria and Caroline Wagner The rupee slumped 3.9 percent to an unprecedented 68.8450 per dollar, the biggest drop since 1993 The currency lost 13.7 percent this quarter and 20.1 percent this year India’s budget and current-account deficits are responsible for the rupee’s slide. The government is taking steps to contain the shortfall in the broadest measure of trade to within $70 billion in the year through March 2014, compared with an unprecedented $87.8 billion the previous period. The value of the rupee is plummeting to a record low against the US dollar. It fell to 64.12 against the US dollar. This is due to large account deficit of India. Stock indexes are plummeting while bond yields skyrocket, dramatically increasing the cost of the credit needed to grow the economy. GDP: $1.83 trillion GDP growth: 3.986% Inflation: 9.31% Unemployment: 8.5% Interest Rate: 9.3% India faces a huge deficit due to excess of money being sent out (to pay for imports) versus taking in (from export earnings). Factors that affect currency over next few months Economic Conditions Effects of the Rupee's Decline Economic Conditions and its Affect on Value of Currency History Continued Imports Exports Inflation Employment Rates Interest Rates Growth Rates Trade Deficits Performance of equity markets Foreign Exchange Reserves Macroeconomic Policies Foreign Investment Inflows Banking capital Commodity Prices Geopolitical Conditions History of the Rupee Rupee Balance of Payments Rupee is derived from the sanskrit word raupya (coin of silver). Was a silver standard, but India faced severe economic consequences when the largest economies used the gold standard. Used silver standard until the 20th century. The Indian rupee was adopted after the independence of British India. Political factors that affect the value of the currency are the trade deficit that was previously mentioned as well as the fleeing of foreign investors. The government openly discusses the economic conditions which leads the investors to believe that they should not invest. Political Factors Affecting the Value of Currency Decline of the Rupee From 2002-2011, the economic growth rate was 7.7% Growth has slowed to 4.4% per year The rupee started inflating, which resulted in higher prices for imported goods The government didn't address structural problems, and began major redistribution prorams that resulted in higher fiscal and trade deficits Economy relied on limited pool of skilled labor Should rely on abundant supply of cheap, unskilled labor. India was one of the first issuers of coins. Designs changed as many different empires rose and fell. First coins were 'punch-marked' coins 12th century: coins called Tanka During Mughal period, Rupee introduced India's Economy is Slowing Symbols and Meanings on the Rupee

Indian Rupee

Transcript: The Determinants of Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility In The Indian Economy Result: Financial and Political Failure Rupee After the breakdown of Bretton Woods system in 1971, the Indian government decided to remove the peg to minimize the risk associated with a single currency peg. 4 independent variables (GDP, IIP ,WPI, and BSE 30) can affect the USD/INR. BSE movement is correlated with exchange rate. Main Points Agenda Causes of Fluctuation A Note on Argentina, Its crisis, and The Theory of Exchange Rate Determination Change leads to: 1. Change in domestic currency value 2. Quantity of Exports and Imports 3. Change in XR in long run Very old currency Two Economic Shocks: 1979 and 1991 The currency was freed to float in 1992 Collapse of Bretton Woods - Removal of the gold standard by Richard Nixon. Originally pegged to Sterling -Gained independence in 1947, kept peg until 1966. Switched to a peg against USD until 1971, then to a basket of currencies. - In early 90 century, Argentina executed a neoliberal economic policy. - In 1991, the Argentine government decided to peg with USD only, the exchange rate was 1 Peso equal to 1 USD. - This caused the unemployment rate to rise to 25% in 2002. The PESO depreciate 75%. Trend of the BSE Indian Rupee 1. The changes in exports and imports 2. The changes in wholesales prices 3. The volatility of the stock market 4. The inflation and the exchange rate The China (Forex) Syndrome Result High Inflation: Domestic goods are less competitive Demand for Indian goods and services decreases. --> Less demand for the rupee More attractive to purchase foreign goods. People supply rupees to buy foreign $. Supply increase, decreases value. Questions? The WPI reports monthly average price changes in goods sold. Good indicator on the growth in the economy. India WPI been decreasing since Sept 2014. Article 1 2015: Inflation increase from 4.38% to 5% Article 2 Indian Inflation Rate Changing at similar rate 1. Broad history 2. Article Review 3. Exchange Rate Fluctuations 4. What Economic Factors Influence the XR Exchange Rate Fluctuation Why? Rasha Elbeah Xinbo Liu Xin Liu Jonathan Mills Thank you! Article 3 Economic Factors - Earliest issuer of coin - Was originally silver based as opposed to gold (in contrast to gold standard) - For many years was official currency of : East Africa, Southern Arabia, and the Persian Gulf GDP, Indexes of Industrial Production, Wholesale Price Index, BSE 30, collectively determine the variance in USD/INR rates up to about 39.3%. Australia is the major supplier of metal industry to China. China reduced the overheated economy, then the AUD/USD fell nearly 1 U.S. cent China had multiple connections with other foreign countries in importing and exporting( For Japan, 25% exports and 35% imports) More imports and less exports would lead to lower the Forex. Exports and Imports were important factors in the past Oil an gold: primary imports. 1979 energy crisis 1980's gold price increase Results: The level of importing&exporting will have an impact on the Forex movement for other countries Long run: Higher inflation reduces value of rupee. Peg Result Moving around 0.015 Lowest: 0.01499 (Sept 4) Highest: 0.01546 (Oct 16) Article Review Correlation

Indian Rupee and Paise

Transcript: Indian currency: Indian currency is called the Indian Rupee (INR) and the coins are called paise. One rupee consists of 100 paise. The word Rupee came from the Sanskrit word "raupya" which means silver coin. Reserve Bank of India The reserve bank of India (RBI) is the body that is in charge of India's numismatic and currency production and is India's National Bank. Denominations Paise: Coins in India are available in denominations of 10 paise, 20 paise, 25 paise, 50 paise, Rs. 1, Rs. 2 and Rs. 5. Coins up to 50 paise Rupee: the present denomination of bank notes in India are issued in the denominations of Rs. 10, Rs. 20, Rs. 50, Rs. 100, Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000. These notes are called bank notes as they are issued by the RBI. The printing of the 1,2 and 5 denominations has been discontinued as these denominations have been coinised. However, such noted issued earlier are still in circulation. 5 Rupee note: - 117 * 63 mm _ Issued in 2002 / 2009 10 Rupee note: - 117 * 63 mm _ Issued in 1996 / 2006 20 Rupee note: - 147 * 63 mm - Issued in 2002 / 2006 50 Rupee note: - 147 * 73 - Issued in 1997 / 2005 100 Rupee note: - 157 * 73 mm - Issued in 1996 / 2005 500 Rupee note: - 167 * 73 mm - Issued in 2000 / 2005 1000 Rupee Note: - 177 * 73 mm - Issued in 2000 / 2005 Symbols: 5 Rupee: Tractor - Farming in India is crucial because it is where they get most of their vegetables and fruits from. 10 Rupee: Rhinoceros, elephant, tiger -These are some of the most common animals in India, especially the tiger as it is the nations animal. 20 Rupee: Palm trees, North Bay - 50 Rupee: Parliament of India - IT is the legislative body of the republic of India. 100 Rupee: Himalaya Mountains - The himalayan system is home to the planet's hight peak. 500 Rupee: Dandi March - A march that was conducted by Mahatma Ghandi when the government wanted people to pay tax when buying salt, so they marched to the ocean the ocean to make their own salt. 1000 Rupee: Economy of India - Eleventh largest in the world of nominal GDP. Language Panel: Each of the banknotes have their denomination written in 15 languages. On the other side it is written in English and the main language Hindi. Counterfeit prevention: - Watermark: White side panel of notes has Mahatma Ghandi watermark. -Security thread: All notes have a security band with inscriptions visible when held up to light which reads Bharat (India) in Hindi and RBI in English. _Latent Image: On notes with denominations of Rs. 20 and upwards, a vertical band on the right side of Mahatma Ghandi's portrait contains a latent image showing the respective denominational value in numeral which is visible only when the note is held horizontally at eye level. Mahatma Ghandi Mahatma Ghandi's full name is Monhandas Karamchand Ghandi. He was born on the 2nd of October 1869 in Porbandar. He was married at the age of 13 years old. When he was 19 years old, he went to London to study in the University College to train as a barrister. He helped form the Natal Indian Congress in 1894, through this is moulded and the Indian comunnity in South Africa while he stayed there. In 1944, Britain pledged to grant independence to India once the war was over. Gandhi called for the Congress to reject the proposal once more, since it proposed a division of India among Hindu, Muslim, and Sikh states. The Hindu states would become one nation, while the Muslim and Sikh states would be another. When sectarian violence rocked India's cities in 1946, leaving more than 5,000 dead, Congress members convinced Gandhi that the only options were partition or civil war. He reluctantly agreed, and then went on a hunger strike that single-handedly stopped the violence in Delhi and Calcutta. On August 14, 1947, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan was founded. The Republic of India declared its independence the following day. On January 30, 1948, Mohandas Gandhi was shot dead by a young Hindu radical named Nathuram Godse. The assassin blamed Gandhi for weakening India by insisting on paying reparations to Pakistan. Comparison between Australian and Indian money Indian Currency - Rupee and Paise Mahatma Ghandi

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