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Was the one-child policy in China justified through realisat

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Sam Toms

on 28 April 2014

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Transcript of Was the one-child policy in China justified through realisat

To what extent was the one-child policy in China justified through realisation of its economic goals?
Aims & Objectives
Value Added of Research
1. Origins of the policy:
Relatively unknown.
Hastily implemented, based on inaccurate modelling.
Highly significant factor in explaining failures of the policy.
2. Case study of Iranian family planning experience:
Original research & results.
Ability to overcome cultural obstacles, unlike China (Roudi-Fahimi, 2002).
Appraisal of Research
Interest in research topic:
East Asian perspective during year abroad.
Unprecedented in terms of scale, duration and severity.
Increasing global issue of overpopulation.
Statement of Research Topic
1. What were the economic objectives of the one-child policy?
2. To what extent were these economic objectives met?
3. What would have happened without the policy?
4. Can any lessons be learnt from other countries?
Nature of Research Question
Justification of Methods
Multifaceted nature
of dissertation:
Comprehensive economic appraisal of policy.
Innovative approach
to well-documented research area:
Counterfactual argument.
Iranian case study.

Related Literature & Previous Research
1. Counterfactual argument
difficult to estimate
Length & scale of policy.
Multitude of changes in China (1980-present).
2. General, but
Constrained by word limit.
1. Psychological impact of policy:
Side-effects given higher precedence in recent years.
Affects children with siblings & single children.
Future Development of Work
Previously well-researched topic.
Research work more focused:

Duplication of previous methodology:
Policy evaluation.
Case study example - Iran.
Dual Approach Required:
1. Quantitative
Provides evidential basis of research.
2. Qualitative

Subjective interpretation of evidence.
1. Motivations surrounding research topic.
2. Statement & justification of methodology.
3. Critically evaluate research.
4. Present selected results & inform about further development.
2. Family planning policies in Asia:
Common trend of very high fertility rates to some of the lowest in the world (Gubhaju, 2007).
Comparable cultural and societal characteristics.
Future Development of Work
Concluding Remarks
Failure of policy to achieve its economic objectives:
Fertility decline greater in years preceding policy.
Voluntary vs. involuntary methods of enforcement.
1. Human Capital Accumulation
(Rosenzweig & Zhang, 2008; Li et al., 2008).
2. Demographic Imbalances
(Adamchak, 2001).

Psychological Consequences
(Hesketh et al., 2005).

Adamchak, D. J. 2001. The effects of age structure on the labor force and retirement in China. The Social Science Journal. [Online]. 38(1), pp. 1-11. [Accessed 10 March 2014]. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362331900001075

Gubhaju, B. 2007. Fertility Decline in Asia: Opportunities and Challenges. The Japanese Journal of Population. [Online]. 5(1), pp. 20-42. [Accessed 15 April 2014]. Available from: http://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/population/2007_3/Gubhaju.pdf

Hesketh, T. et al. 2005. The effect of China’s one-child family policy after 25 years. New England Journal of Medicine. [Online]. 353(11), pp. 1171-1176. [Accessed 11 November 2013]. Available from: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMhpr051833

Li, H. et al. 2008. The Quantity-Quality Trade-Off of Children in a Developing Country: Identification Using Chinese Twins. Demography. [Online]. 45(1), pp. 223-243. [Accessed 7 March 2014]. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2831373/?report=classic

Rosenzweig, M. R. & Zhang, J. 2008. Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China’s “One-Child” Policy. Review of Economic Studies. [Online]. 76(3), pp. 1149-1174. [Accessed 5 March 2014]. Available from: http://restud.oxfordjournals.org/content/76/3/1149.full

Roudi-Fahimi, F. 2002. Iran’s Family Planning Program: Responding to a nation’s needs. [Online]. Washington: Population Reference Bureau. [Accessed 11 March 2014]. Available from: http://www.prb.org/pdf/iransfamplanprog_eng.pdf

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