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Was the one-child policy in China justified through realisat
Transcript of Was the one-child policy in China justified through realisat
Aims & Objectives
Value Added of Research
1. Origins of the policy:
Hastily implemented, based on inaccurate modelling.
Highly significant factor in explaining failures of the policy.
2. Case study of Iranian family planning experience:
Original research & results.
Ability to overcome cultural obstacles, unlike China (Roudi-Fahimi, 2002).
Appraisal of Research
Interest in research topic:
East Asian perspective during year abroad.
Unprecedented in terms of scale, duration and severity.
Increasing global issue of overpopulation.
Statement of Research Topic
1. What were the economic objectives of the one-child policy?
2. To what extent were these economic objectives met?
3. What would have happened without the policy?
4. Can any lessons be learnt from other countries?
Nature of Research Question
Justification of Methods
Comprehensive economic appraisal of policy.
to well-documented research area:
Iranian case study.
Related Literature & Previous Research
1. Counterfactual argument
difficult to estimate
Length & scale of policy.
Multitude of changes in China (1980-present).
2. General, but
Constrained by word limit.
1. Psychological impact of policy:
Side-effects given higher precedence in recent years.
Affects children with siblings & single children.
Future Development of Work
Previously well-researched topic.
Research work more focused:
Duplication of previous methodology:
Case study example - Iran.
Dual Approach Required:
Provides evidential basis of research.
Subjective interpretation of evidence.
1. Motivations surrounding research topic.
2. Statement & justification of methodology.
3. Critically evaluate research.
4. Present selected results & inform about further development.
2. Family planning policies in Asia:
Common trend of very high fertility rates to some of the lowest in the world (Gubhaju, 2007).
Comparable cultural and societal characteristics.
Future Development of Work
Failure of policy to achieve its economic objectives:
Fertility decline greater in years preceding policy.
Voluntary vs. involuntary methods of enforcement.
1. Human Capital Accumulation
(Rosenzweig & Zhang, 2008; Li et al., 2008).
2. Demographic Imbalances
(Hesketh et al., 2005).
Adamchak, D. J. 2001. The effects of age structure on the labor force and retirement in China. The Social Science Journal. [Online]. 38(1), pp. 1-11. [Accessed 10 March 2014]. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362331900001075
Gubhaju, B. 2007. Fertility Decline in Asia: Opportunities and Challenges. The Japanese Journal of Population. [Online]. 5(1), pp. 20-42. [Accessed 15 April 2014]. Available from: http://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/population/2007_3/Gubhaju.pdf
Hesketh, T. et al. 2005. The effect of China’s one-child family policy after 25 years. New England Journal of Medicine. [Online]. 353(11), pp. 1171-1176. [Accessed 11 November 2013]. Available from: http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMhpr051833
Li, H. et al. 2008. The Quantity-Quality Trade-Off of Children in a Developing Country: Identification Using Chinese Twins. Demography. [Online]. 45(1), pp. 223-243. [Accessed 7 March 2014]. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2831373/?report=classic
Rosenzweig, M. R. & Zhang, J. 2008. Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China’s “One-Child” Policy. Review of Economic Studies. [Online]. 76(3), pp. 1149-1174. [Accessed 5 March 2014]. Available from: http://restud.oxfordjournals.org/content/76/3/1149.full
Roudi-Fahimi, F. 2002. Iran’s Family Planning Program: Responding to a nation’s needs. [Online]. Washington: Population Reference Bureau. [Accessed 11 March 2014]. Available from: http://www.prb.org/pdf/iransfamplanprog_eng.pdf