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TCV2015 - Termination of Wars (wk11)

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Yvan Guichaoua

on 13 December 2015

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Transcript of TCV2015 - Termination of Wars (wk11)

Termination of Wars
When do wars terminate?
How do wars terminate?
Third party intervention
Disbanding from within. Individual defection
Disbanding as a group
Winning the cooperation of civilians
Organisational factors. How prewar social ties affect wartime trajectories (Staniland 2015)
Organisational models
Vulnerabilities
Integrated groups
Vanguard groups
Parochial groups
Fragmented groups
Horizontal ties | Vertical ties
Integrated groups --> comprehensive COIN
Vanguard groups --> decapitation, sectarian drift
Parochial groups --> factionalisation, "zombification"
Fragmented groups --> crumbling apart, criminalisation
No war no peace

Negative peace

Positive peace
Key policy-related matter. What led people to join might be undone (e.g. material incentive)

Remember: enlistment in armed groups is the product of a match. Once the match is sealed, individual and collective transformations happen.
War is a transformative experience
Highly dependent on what the gov. does based on information available (bargaining failure), political space available for non violent expression (e.g. RENAMO), or resources accessible (e.g. borders)
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