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EARLY VERSION of MAPPING DRIVERS OF HOUSING CRISIS

(work in progress)
by

Beth Stratford

on 25 July 2016

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Transcript of EARLY VERSION of MAPPING DRIVERS OF HOUSING CRISIS

Even though
public debt is relatively small compared to household and financial debt
Coalition government used the new mountain of public debt to justify welfare cuts...
when crisis came
the big banks
were bailed out
In other words the taxpayer took on the private debt of the banks
because such a big proportion of financial assets now derive their value from residential real estate


If you have more money chasing
the same number of goods,
you get price rises, or inflation.
Money floods into the housing market
Financial sector is deregulated.
This means that constraints on bank lending are lifted.
The financial sector becomes vulnerable to a bursting of the housing bubble or high number of defaults
The expectation of further price rises encourages people to borrow more and
banks to lend more
Supply of new housing falls
incomes for 0.1% soar
housing benefit bill goes up
Indebtedness,
homelessness &
social cleansing
all increase
House and
land prices
rise
Rents rise
More and more households cannot afford to buy, so have to compete with one another for homes in the private rented sector
Government imposes
austerity
Over half of all low to middle income households under 35 now live in the private rented sector compared to just over a quarter in 2003-4, suggesting that it is increasingly difficult for these households to get onto the housing ladder
Demand goes up for Buy-to-Let properties
The ONS estimates that net income from property grew from £4.7 billion to £12.1 billion between 2000 to 2012
35% of house buyers are now cash buyers - meaning that they don't need to borrow anything in order to buy

In the 1980s
the state withdraws
from house-building







and starts selling off
council houses
With less council housing to go around, more low income households end up in private rented accommodation,
so when rents begin to rise the government's
speculators hoard land
Supply issues
Demand issues
which means even more...
in the expectation of further price rises
The median first time mortgage in the South East is four times greater than the buyer's annual income.
In 1980 it was just two times
annual income.
In the 10 years leading up to the crisis, bank lending doubled the money supply.
40% of this new money went into mortgages.
footnote slide: bear in mind demolitions and conversions
Full transcript