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What is the Future of Warfare?

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Kieran Santiago Fleming

on 23 October 2014

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Transcript of What is the Future of Warfare?

What is the Future of Warfare?
What are the economic impacts of warfare upon international economies?
Will the threat of war drive the creation and development of sophisticated technologies?
How will warfare affect international instability?
What aspects of warfare will affect the environment?
Basic Questions
What technological advances have been made already because of war?
How does the threat of war encourage the development of technologies?
What is the future for humans in the military?
Many technological advances have already been made because of war. Some of these include Tanks, flamethrowers, poison gas, tracer bullets and, aircraft carriers. But there many still used today in every day life such as mobile x ray machines, sanitary napkins, computers, synthetic rubber and, the internet.

"The first tank, the British Mark I, was designed in 1915 and first saw combat at the Somme in September 1916. The French soon followed suit with the Renault FT, which established the classic tank look (turret on top)."
(Sass, 2013)
The threat of war encourages the development of technologies because when soldiers go off to war there are not as many people in the work place to fuel the country's resource needs.

“A relatively recent example of this is radar. While scientists around the world worked on using radio antennae to detect distant objects during the early part of the 20th century, we credit Sir Robert Watson-Watt with building the first practical radar set in 1935. The British Air Ministry adopted his design and used it to detect aggressors during the early days of World War II.”
(Strickland, 2010)

Currently humans are being used less and less in the work force let alone the military.They are mostly used for surveillance and record hundreds of hours of footage each flight. Which most of this will never see a human eye.

"Earlier this year, The Guardian published an info graphic visualizing every U.S. drone strike in Pakistan. The take home message? Less than two percent of the 3,146 drone kills since 2004 were “high profile” and known militant targets. The rest, The Guardian said, were children, other civilians, and assumed terrorists. There are many other jobs drones could do that wouldn’t endanger innocent human beings. "
(Abrams/Plackett, 2013)
Basic Questions
What are the effects of war related refugees on the environment?
What effect does the movement of armies have on the environment?

Basic Questions
What parts of the economy have been affected by war?
What countries have suffered the most, economically from war?
How much money is spent on supplying the US military?
Recurring war has affected the wealth, disrupted the markets and depressed the rate of economic growth .

During the great depression, between 1929-1932, industrial production went down by 46%. Wholesale prices went down by 32% and the rate of unemployment went up by 607%.
Almost every country that has been a part of a war has felt the bite in their economy. Not only do countries have to rebuild cities that have been damaged during war, they also have to pay lots of money to actually fight in the war.

In 1945 Britain lost 19% of their productive capacity.
In 2012 the United States spent $645.7 billion dollars on the defense budget. This is including funding for the Pentagon base, Department of Energy-administered nuclear weapons activities and on the war in Afghanistan.

The U.S. spent 11 times more than Russia, 27 times more than Iran and 33 times more than Israel.

In 2012 America consumed 41% of global military spendature.
Basic Questions
Will weapons in the future be remote controlled?
Will there be more or less soldiers going to war?
What are future wars going to be about?
The us military for the past few years have been working on a proto type dog that is remote contolled. They called it the big dog. They posted videos on youtube of the dog performing and doing different movements. The views on youtube were going crazy. All the viewers were amazed by the big dog because it was something they had never seen before.
I think that there will be less soldiers going to war due to the remote controlled drones and uavs. There is now no need for soldiers to go to war.
Wars in the future will not be about the same reasons that the wars are today, some suggest that the wars will be less about global warming but will be more civil conflict.
How will the environment cause conflict?
Could the environment be damaged by the intentional destruction of resources?
Refugees have a huge impact on the environment
During the Rwanda Genocide 524,000 refugees went to Benaco (the second largest city in Tanzania). "In the first six months to November 1994, tree resources within 5km of the four Ngara camps had been all but expended. By June 1995, the standard radius for getting fuel was 10km or more from the notional centre-point. These are very rapid fuelwood depletion rates. In north Kivu, 850,000 refugees in four camps are located within easy walking distance of the Virunga National Park, and many go there daily to gather fuelwood. " (Gill Shepherd, 1995)
In the early 1990s, an estimated 20 000 hectares of woodlands were cut each year in Malawi to provide firewood and timber for the various camps hosting Mozambican refugees, while in 1994, at the height of the refugee crisis near the Virunga National Park in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire), refugees were removing some 800 tonnes of timber and grass each day (UNEP, N.D)
The movement of armies uses so many resources which has a toll on the environment.
The DoD's total primary energy consumption in Fiscal Year 2006 was 1100 trillion Btu. It corresponds to only 1% of total energy consumption in USA.
Nigeria, with a population of more than 140 million, consumes as much energy as the U.S. military.
The DoD per capita[2] energy consumption (524 trillion Btu) is 10 times more than per capita energy consumption in China, or 30 times more than that of Africa. (Sohbet Karbuz. 2007).

The US Department of Defense (DoD) is the largest oil consuming government body in the US and in the world. (Sohbet Karbuz, 2007)
With precious resources becoming scarcer, wars over resources will become a common act.
"Of course it's about oil; we can't really deny that," said Gen. John Abizaid, former head of U.S. Central Command and Military Operations in Iraq, in 2007. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan agreed, writing in his memoir, "I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil." Then-Sen. and now Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said the same in 2007: "People say we're not fighting for oil. Of course we are." (Antonia Juhasz, 2013)
"Consumerism has been a wonderful model, I would suggest, for growing up economies in the 20th century. Is that model still fit for purpose in the 21st century when resource shortage is our biggest challenge?" (James Randerson, 2009)
"Unless we get to grips with this problem globally, we potentially are going to lead ourselves into a situation where large, powerful nations will secure the resources for their own people at the expense of others."
"I'm going to suggest that future historians might look back on our particular recent past and see the Iraq war as the first of the conflicts of this kind – the first of the resource wars," These quotes were said by Sir David King (James Randerson, 2009?
Many, including Israel’s former prime minister Ariel Sharon, have described the 1967 Six-Day War as the first modern water war, escalating as it did from clashes between Israel, Jordan, and Syria over competing claims to the flow of the river. (Martin Asser, 2010)
The threat of intentional sabotage is quite real.
" More than 1 billion barrels of oil were burned, causing noxious plumes of smoke and creating a large-scale environmental disaster. An additional 10 million barrels were poured into the Persian Gulf, poisoning the animal and marine life in the area.
The oil fires had a profound impact on Kuwait's land – the sand and gravel combined with oil and soot to form "tarcrete" over around 5 percent of the country. (Julle Gerstein, 2009)

As Iraqi forces withdrew from Kuwait, they set fire to over 650 oil wells and damaged almost 75 more, which then spewed crude oil across the desert and into the Persian Gulf. Fires burned for ten months. According to a 2009 study published in Disaster Prevention and Management, firefighting crews from ten countries, part of a response team that comprised approximately 11,450 workers from 38 countries, used familiar and also never-before-tested technologies to put out the fires. (NASA, N.D)
NASA. (N.D). Kuwait Oil Fires. Available: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/landsat/news/40th-top10-kuwait.html. Last accessed 20 October, 2013.

Julle Gerstein. (2009). Kuwait Oil Fires. Available: http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/kuwait-oil-fires. Last accessed 16 October, 2013.

Martin Asser. (2010). Obstacles to Arab-Israeli Peace: Water.Available: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11101797. Last accessed 15 October, 2013.

Antonia Juhasz. (2013). Why the War in Iraq was Fought for Big Oil.Available: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/19/opinion/iraq-war-oil-juhasz. Last accessed 22 October, 2013.

James Randerson. (2009). David King: "Iraq was the First Resource War of the Century . Available: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/feb/12/king-iraq-resources-war. Last accessed 18 October, 2013.

Sohbet Karbuz. (2007). US Military Energy Consumption- Facts and Figures . Available: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2007-05-21/us-military-energy-consumption-facts-and-figures. Last accessed 21 October, 2013.

UNEP. (N.D). Environmental Impact of Refugees in Africa. Available: http://www.unep.org/geo/geo3/English/454.htm. Last accessed 21 October, 2013.

Gill Shepherd. (1995). The Impact of Refugees on the Environment and Appropriate Responses . Available: http://www.odihpn.org/humanitarian-exchange-magazine/issue-04/the-impact-of-refugees-on-the-environment-and-appropriate-responses#startOfPageId1157. Last accessed 19 October, 2013.

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