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London Futurists Meeting August 31

Siemens Global Finance & HR Meeting
by

Alex Zhavoronkov

on 26 October 2014

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Transcript of London Futurists Meeting August 31

Aging and Loss of Function
Loss of Function
Cardio dysfunction
Loss of motor neurons
Sarcopenia
Pain
Obesity, Metabolic Diseases
Cognitive decline
Mineralization & AGEs
Decline in immune fuctions
Loss of bone
Vision Loss
Loss of Renal Function
Thusday, April 12
“IMF warns of £750bn
pensions time bomb

“IMF predicted national
debt could spiral to 135% of national income
by 2050 if the average
lifespan in the UK rose by just three years
more than predicted"
The first bells of the coming pension crisis:
“The IMF said one solution, which is currently being examined by the UK Government, would be to
link the retirement age to life expectancy rates
.”
Why Pension Funds?
Why Pension Funds?
Aging and Loss of Function
Age-related loss of function leads to lost productivity and costs
Trillions for the world economy in the form of Direct Healthcare Costs, Direct Productivity Losses and Productivity Losses due to Eldercare
Source: 2006 MetLife Caregiving Cost Study and US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Why Pension Funds?
Unfunded liabilities in the US may be more significant than we think (see Kotlikoff, Gokhale, Smetters, et al)

Most of these liabilities are based on Present Value of Future Payments and are dependent on life expectancy
US federal Fiscal Imbalance is over
$44.2 trillion
.

Social Security is about $7 trillion in present value, Medicare is $36.6 trillion of which part A (hospital insurance program) contributes $ 20.5 trillion and Part B (Supplementary medical insurance program) contributes around $16.1 trillion.
Gokhale and Smetters, 2003
N’tl Debt ~$15T
SoSec $15T-?
Healthcare
$45T-?
AgingPortfolio.Org – the largest database of biomedical research grants with a directory of projects related to aging research


Advanced knowledge management system utilizing classification algorithms with elements of machine learning
Accelerating Returns in Technology and Biomedical Sciences
Accelerating Returns in Technology and Biomedical Sciences
Regenerative Medicine is one of the most promising and fastest-growing fields

Regenerative medicine technology transitions 1.0 to 3.0

First successful transplantations of organs made from patient’s own cells

Some procedures are already in the clinic, but the most promising technologies are still in the lab
Main problem with Aging is that it is Very Complex

Many enabling technologies must be developed in order to provide patients with comprehensive rejuvenation therapies
A. Moskalev, 2011
Aging and Loss of Function
William D. Novelli, AARP, Healthy Aging: Preventing Disease and Improving Quality of Life Among Older Americans 2003, CDC, 2011
Aging is a complex
multi-factorial process that
occurs on both physiological
and psychological levels and
leads to many degenerative
and debilitating conditions

At present, age-related
diseases are inevitable
Chronic Conditions Affecting U.S. Adults 70+
Aging and Loss of Function
Most of the gains in life expectancy in the 20th century were made by reducing child and infant mortality


Until 2000, little progress was made in extending life after 60 years of age
The Era of Longer Life Spans
The Era of Longer Life Spans
William D. Novelli, AARP, Healthy Aging: Preventing Disease and Improving Quality of Life Among Older Americans 2003, CDC, 2011
We see these projections often, but treat it as a demographic phenomenon attributed to baby boom and higher survival rates in pre-pension age

The problem for pension funds is not in the number of pensioners, but in their expected life spans

Benefits & Pension programs have been around for only one century – are we prepared for paradigm shifts in longevity?
Aging and Loss of Function
Accelerating Returns in Technology and Biomedical Sciences
The National Institutes of Health have an annual budget of ~$30 billion
In 2011 China announced a 5-year plan with $308 billion to be spent on biomedical sciences
Japan is investing heavily into science and technology to increase healthy working lives of seniors
EU launched several programs for life extension and extending healthy working life
Funding is not the main factor contributing to growth of knowledge:
Communications
Computing
Materials
Population Growth & Increase in Welfare
Emerging Markets
Why Pension Funds?

Urgent need to increase retirement age ahead of the inevitable longevity gains

Extraordinarily long lives of today’s 65-75+ may lead to a crisis

Economic benefits of long lives of today’s 50+

Possible economic collapse if retirement paradigm is unchanged for the near future
Conclusions: Prepare, Prevent and Profit

The technologies required for a longevity revolution are maturing and converging
If pension age increases do not proactively precede the increases in longevity there is a high chance of global economic collapse
Ideally, we need an Apollo Program with a goal to Increase Healthy Working Life Span ASAP
How advances in biomedicine can transform the global economy:
unprecedented economic growth or near-term collapse?

Aging and Loss of Function

Age-related loss of function varies from individual to individual
Not all age-related diseases lead to the loss of ability to do useful work
Many individuals 75+ with chronic age-related diseases are more fit for useful work than some of the college graduates
The onset of many age-related diseases can be delayed or prevented
Much research is focused on age-related diseases, but very little work is done on age-related loss of function
Aging and Loss of Function
Why do people retire:
Loss of function
Psychological Aging
Erosion of skills
Traditions/Culture
Peer pressure/External locus of control
What can WE do to Prevent it?

Government Lobbying
Public Advocacy
Direct Support for Aging Research
Direct Involvement
Networking
Lead by Example
Conclusions

Complex approaches are required to extend healthy working life and pension funds must champion the lobbying efforts to convince governments to:

Refocus research activities with health span goals in mind
Proactively prepare an educate the retiring population on the prospects of significantly longer life spans
Develop programs for lifelong learning and lifelong career planning
Move from Retirement Plans to Disability Insurance
Reward and recognize working seniors
Pass on some preventative and regenerative medicine responsibilities to pension and life insurance companies
Research funding for age-related diseases steadily increasing
Mostly treatment-oriented research with no clear goals
John Furber, 2011
Alex Zhavoronkov, PhD
Email: alex@biogerontology.org
Phone: + 44 20 81 44 7774
Source: N.Kane et al, Pluripotent stem cell differentiation into vascular cells: A novel technology with promises for vascular re(generation), Pharmacology & Therapeutics, Volume 129, Issue 1, January 2011
Source: Invitrogen
F. Collins, The Human Genome Project: Lessons from Large-Scale Biology, Science 2003
Head of the Regenerative Medicine Laboratory/
Chief Scientist, Bioinformatics Laboratory
Federal Research and Clinical Center for
Pediatric Hematology, Oncology and Immunology
www.fnkc.ru
Director, Trustee
The Biogerontology Research Foundation, UK
www.bg-rf.org.uk
Director
The International Aging Research Portfolio
www.AgingPortfolio.Org
Co-Founder, Master Thought Architect
NeuroG
www.NeuroG.com
Co-Founder, Chief Scientist
Gene Family Health
www.gene-of-health.com
Co-Founder, BOD
First Oncology Research
and Advisory Center
www.ponkc.com
Chief Scientist
Global Medical Assistance
Co-Founder
Galt Advanced Technology
Company
Co-Founder
Mediox, Inc
www.mediox.com
Some of my present affiliations
Founder
First Open Institute for Regenerative Medicine for Young Scientists
www.facebook.com/groups/regen.med
Aging and Loss of Function

Age-related loss of function varies from individual to individual
Not all age-related diseases lead to the loss of ability to do useful work
Many individuals 75+ with chronic age-related diseases are more fit for useful work than some of the college graduates
The onset of many age-related diseases can be delayed or prevented
Much research is focused on age-related diseases, but very little work is done on age-related loss of function
The History of
the Global Economic
Collapse
2010-2030
?
Pre-clinical
Trials
Phases of Clinical
Trials
Clinical Propagation and
Mass Market Adoption
Prevention?
40+ Years for a Geroprotector to Reach the Market
Top Grants databases for integration
into AgingPortfolio
United States
Report.Nih.gov
Research.gov
Osti.gov
Nsf.gov
Canada
Nrc-cnrc.gc.ca
Genomereports.ca
Europe
Lifecompetence.eu
Biocompetence.eu
Cordis.europa.eu
Australia
Nhmrc.gov.au
Japan
Togodb.dbcls.jp
The database will integrate all available databases of aging research projects financed by the government, industry and academia.
Centralized Repository of Biomedical Publication Abstracts

MEDLINE (used by
PubMed.org
)
- almost 20 mil records
- title, abstract, authors, publication, ID, ...)
Centralized Database of Clinical Trials

www.ClinicalTrials.Gov
- almost 130,000 trials
?
Revenue
Clinical Data
Impact on Longevity
Healthy Lifespan Increase
Impact on Economy
Tracking the Longevity Dividend
There are many possible scenarios for the next 20 years, but I see three:

1. Global catastrophe (financial, bioterror, epidemic, natural disaster)
- the effect on your life expectancy is hard to guess

2. Despite general economic slowdown, technology gains outpace increases in the increase of welfare burden and socialism prevails.
- younger generations will have a chance to live extraordinarily long lives, but people retiring today will probably not celebrate their 150's birthday

3. Governments and/or non-governmental groups take action, ageing research is accelerated and coordinated program to extend healthy working lifespan is funded and launched.
- both younger and older generations will have unprecedented lifespans.

- 122 - current lifespan record
- There is a very good chance that MOST people in the audience will live past 150

Ideas:
1. set the percieved life expectancy to
150
2. make it competitive

Another Idea: Personalized Science
Grants
Publications
Clinical Trials
Full transcript