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5 More Predictions

In 2004, on the 10th anniversary of the World Wide Web, I made 10 predictions for the next 10 years. Here, I review how I did, show how I used these predictions to shape my work, and then make 5 more predictions for the next 5 years.
by

Adam Cheyer

on 12 February 2013

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Transcript of 5 More Predictions

Score? 5 More
Predictions Adam Cheyer adam@siri.com 2004 10 #1: Speech Recognition Finally Works 5 More Predictions for 5 More Years DBPedia: Semantic Wikipedia

3.7M objects in ontology

700K people, 573K places,
112K albums, 72K films,
18K video games

111 languages

1.8B total attributes/relations 2012: 4/10 Collaborative
Automated 4 – Structured & Unstructured  Merge 2012: 5/10 Google Knowledge Graph:
- 500M people, places, and things, with 3.5B
attributes and relationships

True Knowledge (Evi):
- 1B+ facts, with reasoning engine that combines
them

Wolfram Alpha:
- Many trillions of data elements with Mathematica
functions to calculate over them 2 – Structured: Disconnected  Semantically Organized Source: http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012
http://www.statisticbrain.com/pandora-radio-statistics/ How many have bought music in a
non-computer form in the last year?

iTunes opened 2003;
2011 – 15B downloads

Number of hours streamed on Pandora in 2011:
3.9 billion 2012: 9/10 Books
News
Voice
TV
Music 1 – All Media Becomes Digital #10: Intelligent Learning Software Assists
in Organizing and Accessing Information Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watson_(computer) IBM’s Watson (Jeopardy)

> Ingested millions of documents,
including dictionaries,
encyclopedias, and other reference
material

> Contained 200 million pages of
structured and unstructured
content consuming four terabytes
of disk storage 2012: 4/10 Collaborative
Automated 4 – Structured & Unstructured  Merge 2012 2004 2009 2012 2004
Rented/Bought Media (e.g. books, DVDs) in Home Library
Personal Data and Content (e.g. files, email) on Desktop
Public Content (e.g. maps, news, shopping) on Web 5 – Social Networking Takes Off Skype released on Windows July 2004 Skype’s Market Share of International Calls Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skype 2005 2.9%
2006 4.4%
2008 8%
2010 13% 2012: 9/10 Books
News
Voice
TV
Music 1 – All Media Becomes Digital In 2004, on the 10th anniversary of the Web, I presented 10 predictions for the next 10 years (2004-2014)

A) Review: How did I do? (2 years left!)
B) Five more predictions for the next 5 years (-2019)

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
-- Alan Kay

“… but timing is everything.”
-- Adam Cheyer 5 More Predictions Social Networking – a person’s “personal network” 56% of US internet users watch TV online 2012: 9/10 Books
News
Voice
TV
Music 1 – All Media Becomes Digital Topic Maps Deriving structure from unstructured content Collaborative Apps Blogs Wikis #3: Unstructured: Editor Becomes Collaborative #2: Structured: Disconnected Becomes Semantically Organized #1: All Media Becomes Digital EVIDENCE
Amazon’s “Search Inside the Book”
More than 120,000 books (’03)
Google Print
http://print.google.com
Digitizing entire Harvard Library (15M vols). Also Oxford, Stanford, Michigan, NY Public Library.

Million book project
Goal: by 2005
CMU, NSF, Gov India & China
Factors:
Cost: $10/title to digitize, and falling
There are 30 million books that have been published in history. Of that, half are out of copyright. A million books can fit in a terabyte box the size of a bookshelf. EVIDENCE
Google News
Editing fully automated by machine!
Online Presence
Every major newspaper now has
online presence
Classified ads now dominated by online Source: http://techcrunch.com/2012/09/06/mene-mene/ - 2010: Ebooks pass hardcover revenue
- 2011: Ebooks pass physical books sales #1: All Media Becomes Digital Books News Music Voice TV Score? Source: http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 - Internet ad revenue passes Print (news) Supportive Unused #2: Structured: Disconnected Becomes Semantically Organized Score? #3: Unstructured: Editor Becomes Collaborative #4: Unstructured & Structured Merge Score? #3: Unstructured: Editor Becomes Collaborative #4: Unstructured & Structured Merge Collaborative Automated IBM’s Watson (Jeopardy)

-> Ingested millions of documents, including dictionaries, encyclopedias, and other reference material

-> Contained 200 million pages of structured and unstructured content consuming four terabytes of disk storage Semantic Wikipedia

3.7M objects in ontology

-> 700K people, 573K places,
112K albums, 72K films,
18K video games
111 languages
1.8B total attributes/relations #5: Social Networking Takes Off "You would be willing to put your reputation on the line for them, and that is what gives these links real meaning." Score? "You would be willing to put your reputation on the line for them, and that is what gives these links real meaning." Social Networking – a person’s “personal network” EVIDENCE
Allows friends to connect with people inside their
accepted social circle, allowing for perceived greater
sense of security, compared to anonymous

Over 200 social networking sites now available
2003: Friendster, Tribe.net, LinkedIn
2004: Google launches Orkut

Social network Applications:
LinkedIn: Career Development
Friendster: Matchmaking (13M Participants)
Weblogs: StumbleUpon, FriendBlogs
WorldDJ: Electronic music & clubbing social networks
Yelp: search for local services through your friends
AudioScrobbler: social networking for music 5 – Social Networking Takes Off Nov 5, 2004 2006: MySpace surpassed Google as
most visited US website

Facebook
2004: 1M users
2012: 1B active users
>50% mobile

Twitter:
500M active users
1.6B search queries/day
340M tweets/day #5: Social Networking Takes Off #6: Personalization Becomes Ubiquitous Score? 6 – Personalization becomes Ubiquitous 2004 2014 2019 10 5 Personalization continues upward growth, in
e-commerce and in advertising

Privacy issues are being
raised, cf. Facebook
Instant Personalization

Social + personalization
merging, cf. TripAdvisor
“Your friend visited…” #7: Public & Private Content Merge
(in the Cloud) Score? #7: Public & Private Content Merge #8: Usable Access Is Key Score? Score? Elements of Future User Experience
-> Context (conversational, local)
-> Ubiquitous Access (Mobile)
-> Multimodal (speech & touch)
-> Collaborative
-> Personal Assistants
By recognizing importance of usable access, Apple becomes most valuable company in the world (2012) #10 Intelligent assistants (ML) #2: Collaborative Coding & In-App Marketplaces #3: Health Care: Intelligence Breakthroughs 5 More Predictions for 5 More Years #3: Health Care: Intelligence Breakthroughs #5: Dynamic Knowledge Repositories (DKRs) begin to form #4: Augmented Reality Goes Mainstream 1999 #4: Augmented Reality Goes Mainstream Books News Music Voice TV/Movies
2012
People trust personal information “in the cloud”
Email: >1B users hosted by big 3 email companies
Files: DropBox – 25M users, 300M files/day saved

Rented/Bought media (songs, movies) increasingly stored in the cloud (e.g. Apple iCloud, Amazon Cloud Drive) or streamed on-demand

Enterprise:
Cloud services (e.g. Amazon EC2)
Sales data: Salesforce.com hosts 82,000 companies #8: Usable Access Is Key #9: Applications Are Similarly Transformed
(Composable/Plugable, Semantic, Collaborative, Personalized, Social) Score? Elements of Future User Experience
-> Context (conversational, local)
-> Ubiquitous Access (Mobile)
-> Multimodal (speech & touch)
-> Collaborative
-> Personal Assistants
By recognizing importance of usable access, Apple becomes most valuable company in the world (2012) #8: Usable Access Is Key In-App
Purchase

Social Layer Now Is the Time Jamaica Computer Society
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