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Planning tools for climate resilient pathways

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deborah davies

on 20 September 2017

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Transcript of Planning tools for climate resilient pathways

Greener Spaces
Adaptation, Sustainable Development, Barriers & Criteria for Success
Decision points and pathways that lead to a range of possible futures
Actions or failures-to-act throughout the opportunity space, constitute the process of managing or failing to manage risks related to climate change.
Lead to a more resilient world through adaptive learning, increasing scientific knowledge, effective adaptation and mitigation measures, and other choices that reduce risk
Insufficient mitigation, maladaptation,
failure to learn and use knowledge, and other actions that lower resilience; and they can be irreversible in terms of possible futures.
Climate Resilient Pathways
5 Dimensions
of Maladaptation
Increase emissions of greenhouse gases
Disproportionately burden the most vulnerable
Have high opportunity costs
Reduce incentives to adapt -
false sense of security
Set paths that limit future choices
Ensure that the initiative does not increase emissions of greenhouse gases
Example Maladaptation
Ensure economically and socially equitable initiatives
The Limits to Adaptation and Maladaptation
Jon Barnett, The University of Melbourne
Avoid high-cost initiatives
Increase incentive to adapt and promote sustainable behaviours
• Annual rainfall below long-term average each year 1996-2010
• Average reservoir level was <30% 2008-2010

‘Climate change and record low rainfall demands a dramatic new approach to how we plan for Victoria’s water needs’ (Premier Bracks, 2007)

• Wonthaggi desal. plant:
150 GL/annum
• Sugarloaf Pipeline Project:
75 GL/annum
Avoid Maladaptation
Build flexibility into the initiative
Linking mitigation and adaptation
The Limits to Adaptation and Maladaptation
Jon Barnett, The University of Melbourne
The Limits to Adaptation and Maladaptation
Jon Barnett, The University of Melbourne
Climate-resilient pathways are development trajectories that combine adaptation and mitigation to realize the goal of sustainable development.
Climate change poses a moderate threat to current sustainable development and a severe threat to future sustainable development. (high confidence; high agreement, medium evidence).
Climate Resilient Pathways to Sustainable Development (IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch. 20)
Photo Courtesy Emilio Ambasz & Associates; Photographer: Hiromi Watanabe
biomethane gas, will utilise waste from more than 32,000 households along its 15-mile route.
Adapt to the
climate of today
Establish sufficient
institutional capacity
Conduct climate change
vulnerability analyses
Inform the public
about local climate change vulnerabilities
Consider whether a
’wait-and-see’
attitude is sensible
Make
strategic
prior to operational work
Prioritize cause-oriented
before effect-oriented measures
Prioritize ’no-regret measures’
(measures sensible regardless of climate scenarios)
Avoid
adaptation measures that
increase GHG-emissions
Politicians & other Public sector actors

Private sector actors
Norway 2009
2015
2021
Political competence

e.g. in connection with training of newly elected local government representatives)

Administrative competence
either by hiring experts or by strengthening the competence of existing staff

Administrative capacity
findings from many analyses of criteria for municipal environment work shows that the main problem is rarely a lack of competence, but rather a lack of capacity

Integrating considerations of climate adaptation in planning processes
Improving existing routines or establishing new administrative routines and procedures

Changing the perspective on knowledge from conventional to alternative knowledge
e.g. making use of alternative methods for surface water treatment a supplement to, or substitute for, focusing on increasing pipeline dimensions

Barriers to Adaptation
KEY IDEA - Integration
Make climate change impacts and climate change adaptation a normal part of the planning cycle!
10 Success Criteria for Adaptation
Barriers to Adaptation
Full transcript