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INTL 567-Law Enforcement Analysis for Intelligence-Mercyhurst University-Conceptual Model For Mexican TCN activity and Terrorism in the U.S.

Hypothesis-Mexican TCN activity in the U.S. can lead to terrorist' infiltration affecting U.S. national security
by

Donna Dottle

on 14 October 2012

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Transcript of INTL 567-Law Enforcement Analysis for Intelligence-Mercyhurst University-Conceptual Model For Mexican TCN activity and Terrorism in the U.S.

The Main Problem is: Conceptual Model of The Probability of the Mexican Transnational Crime Networks Being Exploited by Terrorism Groups and Becoming a Threat to the U.S. National Security Open Source Research indicates drug trafficking cartels such as Los Zetas have demonstrated capability, intent, and motivation to corrupt law enforcement officials in the U.S. and Mexico Bryan, Susan Montays. (2012). Associated Press.
http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_21709873/us-mexico-governors-press-cooperation
Information was supported and source reliability is 85%. Plausibility was highly likely. Source had direct contact. The Governors of states that border Mexico do not have the capability to protect the citizens of the U.S. from the violence shown from Mexican TCNs-Governor Brewer, Arizona stated: "It's the federal government's responsibility to secure our border and they need to do that, and then we can deal with all the other issues that have come about because our border hasn't been secured." Sources: Opens Source Research using news sites: Reuters, CNN; ABC; NBC; NPR; The Daily Beast: Retrieved from: http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/10/02/u-s-embassy-car-targeted-in-mexico.html. Small Wars Journal: Retrieved from: http://smallwarsjournal.com/
The Guardian: Retrieved from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/09/us-mexican-border-patrol-death
Corruption on the Border: (Accessed 2012). Retrieved from: http://www.customscorruption.com/ What is the type of corruption the Mexican TCNs use to infiltrate into the U.S. Law Enforcement Agencies? Transnational Criminal Networks (TCNs) such as Los Zetas and Sinaloa could possibly be gateways for terrorist activities: Mexican TCN Activity Occurs in the U.S in over 1200 cities (2010)-Mexican TCNs are Active in over 1200 cities in the U.S http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/nsc/transnational-crime/threat How much of a threat and how strong is the possibility of an alliance between Al Qaeda and Mexican TCNs? Sources-Academic references and scholarly articles:
U.S. Government. White Paper (July 2011)-http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/Strategy_to_Combat_Transnational_Organized_Crime_July_2011.pdf
FAS. (6 January 2012) Congressional Research Service: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41547.pdf
Department of State. (Accessed 6 October 2012). Retrieved from: http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_970.html
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. (September 2012). Threat Assessment-Transnational Organized Crime in Central American and the Caribbean. Retrieved from: http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/TOC_Central_America_and_the_Caribbean_english.pdf
Shirk, David Dr. (2011). Transnational Crime, U.S. Border Security, and the War on Drugs in MexicoDr. David A. ShirkTrans-Border Institute, University of San DiegoDelivered to the House of Representatives Sub-Committee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management, Chairman: Hon. Michael McCaul, March 31, 2011. Homeland Retrieved from: http://homeland.house.gov/sites/homeland.house.gov/files/Testimony%20Shirk.pdf
Killebrew, Bob and Bernal, Jennifer. (2012) Center for a New American Security. Retrieved from: http://www.cttso.gov/publications/CNAS_CrimeWars_KillebrewBernal_3%20(2).pdf
Huffington Post. Accessed 2012. Retrieved from: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/18/mexico-jailbreak-prisoners-us-border_n_1893127.html Which Law Enforcement Agencies Have Been Infiltrated? Sources: News sites such as MSNBC, Reuters, BBC, http://www.customscorruption.com/
Small Wars Journal. Accessed 2012. Retrieved from: http://smallwarsjournal.com/
Los Angelos Times. Accessed 2012. Retrieved from: http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may/13/nation/la-na-border-corruption-20120513
The Daily Beast. Accessed 2012. Retrieved from: http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2012/10/02/u-s-embassy-car-targeted-in-mexico.html
The Guardian. Accessed 2012. Retrieved from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/09/us-mexican-border-patrol-death How Often is the Corruption Activity Happening? What is the likelihood of weapon's transfers to terrorist groups?
What is the likelihood of terrorist groups infiltrating the Mexican TCNs to obtain access to logistical routes in to the United States?
What is the likelihood of terrorists exploiting the TCN's capabilities to import illegal substances into the U.S. undetected?
How can this be stopped? Intelligence Gaps Regarding the Effects of the Possibility of Terrorists Collaborating with Mexican TCNs Law Enforcement Analysts need to know the following information:

Who are the TCNs in Mexico and what are their locations?
What is the U.S. involvement in the Mexican's TCNs?
How Often Does the Corruption Happen?
Is there a connection between terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda and the Mexican TCNs?
How likely is a terrorist attack from Mexico and what would the potential affects be?
What is the sollution? What are the alternate hypotheses? Los Zetas name came from a call sign for Commanders in the Mexican Army-First Objective is to "Kill" Crossing Borders Without Any Resistance Source: Youtube- Uploaded by TheBorderlandbeat on Jan 8, 2011
Los Zetas Gangland part one Sources: National Security Council. White House. (Accessed 2012). http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/nsc/transnational-crime/threat http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqGsGZFvHRE What is the liklihood of Weapons transfers to terrorist groups? Sources: News Sites, Fox, CNN, BBC, ABC, and Reuters, all accessed 2012. Information was supported and source reliability is 90%. Plausibility was highly likely. Source had direct contact. Information was supported and source reliability is 90%. Plausibility was highly likely. Source had direct contact. Information was supported and source reliability is 90%. Plausibility was highly likely. Source had direct contact. Need to complete analysis and answer information gaps in order to provide accurate information Additional information is needed in order to provide a complete analysis at this time. Information was 75% supported and source reliability is 80%. Plausibility was likely. Sources had direct and indirect contact. Information was 75% supported and source reliability is 80%. Plausibility was more than likely. Source had indirect contact. Information was supported and source reliability is 80%. Plausibility was likely. Source had direct and indirect contact. Map of Showing Mexican Drug Routes into the U.S
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