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FUTURE_MEDIA_OUTLOOK_2013

Special Thanks to presidential decree that ordered the liquidation of RIA Novosti
by

Vasily Gatov

on 19 December 2014

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Transcript of FUTURE_MEDIA_OUTLOOK_2013

Future Media
or Something
we called Media

2013 UPDATE
Mass Media is only a part of society services.
If society has a problem, mass media has a big problem, too.
Reasons of Failure
It's not Media Industry
is The Consumer
Scenario
Listen to pessimists
Traditional Media
the real problem
but outside trends decide how media will look like
Society & Government
Although we see some bright opportunities, we concentrate on threats and crises that could happen in 2014-2024 and affect media industry
Vasily Gatov
(c) Novosti MediaLab & ABMedia Consulting LP

What we saw in 2012
Stable
Under Review
Television is still Medium #1
Traditional Web matures
Mobile Web exploding
Printed Media shrinks further
Traditional Outdoor declines
Radio faces LTE+ challenges
Material Production
Commodity Content
Double Conversion
Outsorcing Miracle
Media Co's cut on every aspect of material production and material distribution - death spiral for printed media
Frequently updated content (news) considered a commodity - low investment in production & technology
Rise of non-exclusive, global content both in nishes and general interest: cheaper to rent than to produce
Old companies dare to keep 100-yo model to sustain traditional production: pay walls, paid access
1.
WANTS:
DISLIKES:
Quality
Free
Open
Everywhere
Time Shift
Paid only
Continious
Locality Rights
Advertising
Closed
2.
Media
Telecom
Society&Gov't
Gadgets
Long trends
government(s) endorse more values control (Russia/China)
government(s) endorse more behaviour control (NSA/China)
open data is too open for everybody
privacy concerns trade-offs widen
"constructivity" of media as an opposition to social responsibilty
government grants are evil, but the only survival aid for old media
G
factors
S
factors
newest conservatism
migration
generation gap
digital divide 2.0
Telecom Trends
2020+
totally connected world
digital ID & cloud for everything & everybody
socialized communication
contextualized communications
superb flawless location services
excessive real-time services
Device Trends Split
2020+
YES to displays - better technology gives better acceptance and penetration for digital media
YES to mobile broadband - 4G LTE and beyond
YES to personal analytics based on the net' usage (KYC-battle) - socially enabled device as Your universal ID
Background
Where all futurists fail
Danger Nears
Internet Balkanization
Devices & Technologies
PRO-MEDIA
ANTI-MEDIA
Displays reach final tech spec's level (RetinaX)
New security protocols (DigitalID)
Holographic Breakthrough
Device as an Extention of Men
Bandwidth overconsumption
Device-based aggregation
Cloud AI works better & faster than mass media
Consumer fatigue
MID-TERM RATIONALE
brands
do become more and more mainstream media
(RedBull)
consumers are
not trading loyalty any further
touchable screens remain primarily
"private device"
content
pro-sumers could not replace professional journalists
but tend to co-exist
RTB advertising
exchanges replace traditional display buyer
Copyright battles
are not yet finished and will not be finished anytime soon
Media
Mobile First
Finally Arrives
Social Network
Empire Strikes Back
Episode 2
Print, Radio, Broadcast TV
Outdoor
Legacy Media
All other
Digital Media
is not bright
Future
be prepared to ugly
Reality
Uncharted Waters
limited
growth
great growth,
but no money
Lower Capital
Interactivity?
No Business
Model
Service-based Media
Device-coupled Media
Media as Education
Adaptable Media
Media Typology 2020
Conclusions
1. Independent Global Sector
2. National Restricted by Funding
3. Private Guerilla Media
4. Private Device Based
5. Public Mutually Funded (Multi-Local)
6. Public Old Style (dying out)
1. Classic TV
(multiple platforms, social layer, hyper-focused ads)
2. Touch based TV
(capturing short free time, real-time series, telepresence addiction)
3. Future Web Media
(multi-screen-based, device-initiated, available everywhere)

4. Local Sevice-based
(last print domain, intense mobile interaction, DigitalID&Location based)
5. Radio over LTE
(new types of audio access)
6. 2nd Generation Social Media
(on all devices, but via a «walled garden», sometimes filtered by the states)
Conclusions
Mediums 2020
1. Service-coupled model (subscription 2.0, per-use base (digitalID+cloud credit, part of service fee (visible or not)
2. Affiliation-coupled model (brand buys You a media if You’re loyal)
3. Public Funding 2.0 (local budgets feed local media by digital voting p.e.)
4. Advertising model (40-45% of media income, traditional CPM-model + lead generation + behaviour capturing model on mobile and further experiments with direct media access)
5. PR-funded (well, good&evil always come together)
Conclusions
Business Models 2020
2012-2013
Global Aspects:
Russia-specific aspects:
New & Newest Media Acspects:
Reasons for an annual update: Novosti MediaLab observes a number of trends that are changing or have a capacity to change basic scenarios
Massive shift towards mobile digital consumption of content accelerates and broadens. Digital paywall models (on certain markets & segments) proved some sustainabilty and should be included as a possible future factor. Media globalization trends have been fiercely opposed by older-type governments.
Government-funded media directed to a plain propaganda vehicles. Ad market still TV-dominated, but more and more money "digitizing" - with some preference to online video and RTB/retargeting.
Social network distribution outpaced expectations in a share growth 2x, with Instagram beating the audience forecast by 200% with all other networks stagnating or falling. Media startups funding relatively stable, but most investment go to aggregation and distribution rather than content creation.
2014-2015 trends
obvious agenda today
Digital Education as Media
Workforce Shifts: robots, sensors, augmentation
Transmedia Thinking
Transmedia Tools*
Short, shorter, shortest News
Crowdfunding as Content*
Filter bubble tools: old & new
New Communities
Urbanism as Media Communication*
Red trends
are more influential momentarily, but may decrease as fast.
Yellow trends
have longer effect and will influence most of segments at least for 5 more years. Trends with asterisk * will be a subject of a separate forecast document.
true
}
}
true
true, but
not yet
2013 update
Circulation declines another 8% (USA, Europe, Russia)
Paywalls becoming a mainstream (675+ cases)
2013 update
No significant revenue from paywalls (in Russia, except Vedomosti). Tests expand to TV (TVRain).
2013 update
New editorial trend - short, shorter, shortest. Cheap viral content in general interest prevails.
2013 update
In Russia, attempts to alter the trend fail due to worsening quality of the newsroom journalists
We said:
2013 update
Global
Russia
Mobile Generation:
Younger audiences tend to move primarily to mobile media consumption regardless the content (text, audio, video, multimedia).
Bilateral Hostages:
older audiences tend to agree to pay for "preferred platform" (paper, traditional web, pay TV).
TV Discontent:
Cord-cutting becomes standard for younger audiences (reasons both technology and content).
Tell me more:
Older audiences tend to access "other content" on alternative platfoms.
we said that
2013 update
Telecoms
Society
Gadgets
More content services from Network
operators
Mobile Social Networks free
Privacy concerns grow
Live Social Broadcast becomes standard
Social TV (second screen) comes
Government "fixes" media
iPhone 5s
iPhone 5s in China
Touchscreen everywhere
in 2013 we confirm our concerns over growing
we also underlined some Societal Factors
Conservatism on the rise everywhere.
Migration issues are becoming major social climax nearly everywhere.
Generation gap & generational digital divide engages more and more people, societies, countries.
Still valid...
... Some new trends come to a light
3D Printing & Production Content
Advanced Video (Multi-layer)
Possible Bandwidth Constraints
2013 was the year when DIY-economy started to get the shape. 3D models for fabrication become a shareble and commercial content (The Fab)
Interactive, panoramic, 360-degrees and other forms of the advanced video distribution become available and gain user acceptance.
In 2009, Peter Schwartz has analysed "video overload" in CISCO's Future of Internet as a threat to national development, democracy and freedom.
100x
200x
to text-picture traffic
to text-picture traffic
displays - more, bigger, safer, touchable, connected etc
mobile broadband more and more
biocomputers, quantum computers
major AI improvements (Siri, artificial personalities)
«know your client» battle (Apple vs Google)
3D printing for final consumer
2012 version of trends
2013 major trends
STILL WAITING for biocomputers, quantum computers
STILL WAITING for "consumer AI"
STILL WAITING for meaningful wearable technology
UNDER REVIEW - 3D printing for final consumer
UNDER REVIEW - Google Glass ecosystem
2013 minor trends
2017
Global
Russia
Demographic Shifts
Elderly population overweight
Generational gap crucially affects social policy
Youth unemployment exceeds 20%
Social budget crisis inevitable
Major unemplyment problems
Overurbanization crises
More conflicts will arise between an outdated State & modern society groups
Demographic Shifts
Global
Russia
2018-2022
2016
1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday of November
US Presidential Elections
New Agenda in the White House: possibly more "green" and more "digital"
Russian Presidential Elections
Putin's 4th term in the office?
Or new balance of powers?
1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday of November
US Presidential Elections
"Greener", "Digerati", "Local"
Cheaper Energy Effects
Massive Robotic Workforce Shifts
Drone Armies vs Traditional Armies
Re-Education Global Programs
New state forms
Alternative Citizenry
High danger of National Divide
Decline of Moscow State
Last Brain Drain
2023-2030
Global
Russia
Russian Presidential Elections
Putin must leave the office under Constitution
Internal Technoconflicts:
older generations resist new technologies
International Technoconflicts:
"digital states" subdue outdated societies without a war
Banned Progress:
outdated state
establshes numerous bans on technology and communication
Delusion Revival:
Russia loses digital "Crimean War". New leader, new modernization
Scenario: Worse Government
Scenario: Existential Walls
Some states will limit or close global Net connectivity to prevent their citizens from news & inspiration from abroad, citing "cultural values" as a reason. Minor political unrest with a following brain drain.
International institutions fail to maintain digital liberties. The Net is divided, but massive Resistance pop up both online and offline. High instability.
More liberal and democratic states will "erect value walls" to prevent conservative influence from Islamic and/or Orthodox states. New forms of McCarthysm. Digital Crusades. Informational Wars.
In a blocade, conservative societies turn to weapons and assault actions in the Cyberspace. Global systems targeted, turning the regular life in a mayhem. Anti-Net movements, blaming the Intertet in a failure. Global Disconnect.
Scenario: Mind, Inc
Corporate Research succeeds with AI improvements, offering the states invisible content filtering and brain washing technologies. Digitally uniformed societies with all alternative marginilized.
Corporations redraw the map of the world based on "firewalls" rather than state borders, utilising the same techniques in marketing and sales, dominating markets and, finally, replacing national government.
Risk Factors
State Policies
National Identity Issues
Prohibition of Connectivity
Cyber War
Digital Schizophrenia
Back to Caves/Middle Ages Movements
in 2012
we focused on technological trends and opporunities
in 2013-2014
we see major risks and trends in the society and governance: technology posses less risks and affects media communications much less than the society and the governments
All this demands only grew in last two years
But media companies insist on their legacy rights
In the next 2-3 years we will see

better and better known devices
but unlikely to spot any critical breakthrough gadget. The limitations has to be broken first in the research of the
cognition science, Human-Computer relationship and Connected Device Personality
. Neither of those issues are on the shoulders of engineers and programmers.
Those are MEDIA ISSUES
that are not yet fully addressed by the authors, creators and business.
Artificial Intelligence are us, connected and augmented
Tim O'Reilly, 2013
Internet of Things
will be
an excessive nonsense
if those "things" will not be able to learn from humans and enhance the human's life with new services, expiriences, information and emotions.
Smart devices should have a reason
for the interaction with human, provided that they are intelligent enough to respect our privacy, personality and social behavior.
Smart devices will move from data collection and communication management to the role of
adaptive assistants, competence augmentors and knowledge capacitators
.

EXPECTED BOOM 2015-2020
Smart does not mean "clever" or "knowledgeble". It speaks of an ability to react, to adapt and to communicate with reason.
Isaak Asimov, 1978
Intelligent Things will need a
new form of content: personality
. Have You ever met Robotic Personality Designer? But You'll certainly do - in the nearest future.
Human enhancement technologies (biological, genetic, exosceleton-type, brain interfaces) will also require some new content that will
mediate human relationship with this "parts"
.
With Smart Things, we'll see new advertising methods when the
"personality thing" will sell itself to a final customer
(as well as services connected with it and replacement).

EXPECTED BOOM: AFTER 2020
Regardless of any prediction, media companies need to continue their operations, sell products, earn profits and make investment to secure the future for the shareholders, management and workforce.
NO DOOMS DAY SCENARIO: IFRA FORESIGHT 2017
cats
dogs
stars
cows
We can be quite sure with D-S-C cells of BCG matrix for a near-future media, but the least feasible would be a prediction of enigmatic "cats". Looks like we don't see them yet as they are grey in a greyish fog of future...
Understanding How it Changes
Early Mobile Media
Text Messages
MMS
Java Games
WAP
Small screens, low speed, low band capacity, keyboards
Early 3G Mobile Media
The World of Blackberry (c)
Mobile Email
Browsers for Mobile
Mobile Websites
Mobile is treated as a small screen computer and email device; "just make it readable"
iPhone Kingdom
AppStore
Media Apps
Real time media
Mobile Facebook
Twitter
Digital Subscriptions
The world we live in now. Apps, ecosystems, iOS & Android.
aGPS
Native Mobile
News & Media
News API
Local Services API
Sensor Content
Device as Agregator
If 'no breakthrough' projection is true, media companies will have time to create new generation of content services that will fully utilize mobile devices capacities for the user satisfaction.
Digital Things in Content
Sensors as Reporters
Thing APIs
Lifelogging
Instant Context
Mobile devices integrate the life and collect all the possible context (from sensor data to local news) for the owner
More to come: native mobile video content
Video consumption on mobile is yet to change with a native mobile idea. No legacy TV content will survive on this screen unless its message is adopted to the natural qualities of the mobile consuption.
Interactivity
Sharability
Capture/Edit/Enhance
Advanced Context
Location-specific
Gamification
Device Extras
Private/Public Modes
Main Mobile
Question
WHY SHOULD I DARE TO HAVE THIS CONTENT SO CLOSE TO ME?
One specific mobile quality: it is the closest media to a person, carried over 24/7, private & public simultaneously, gateway to social and personal life.
Early adapters care much less than a future mass users, but there is no answer yet.
Social Networks are here to stay. They are compensational tools of a hyper-connected world as they are badass business creatures. We may see deline of the old ones and rise of the new ones, but the concept will live for decades.
There are no chance for a traditional media to "strike back" because they are not native in this domain and their weaponry is no match to the "defenders": main purpose of social net is dialogue, not a broadcast.
More
Emotions
are coming
Social Networks interfere with so many aspects of a daily life that we will not be able to control emotional privacy. Your joy, your love, your grief, your hate will be recognized with clever social algorithms and publicized - whether You want it or not.
Emotional communications sphere has been one of the foundations of the social networking and it will also become the crucial point in the public debate about those services: older and more conservative population will inevitably resist more public emotions. As well as the states.

Initially, we intended to present some projections for every type of traditional media.
You'll have them in "investment bank analitics style".
But there is nothing more to say then "they will be here in 2020".
As business, Broadcast TV will still be the largest advertising carrier in 2014-2020.
Radio will undergo serious changes as FM distribution will be challenged by 4G offerings. Transformational wave will only come with driverless cars.
Print media trends will remain negative but there is still a number of niche businesses that can thrieve, or develop sustainably.
Outdoor media will be challenged by urban development (Urbanism as Media trend) with globally negative dynamics.
Neither legacy media segment will have a future without digital transformation and adoption of a new business models.
underweight
sell
sell
sell
Content is the King (without Kingdom)
Digital platforms finally alter the nature of mass communication
Consumer wants great content
Content creators need investment to produce great content
Digital distribution doesn't provide sufficient return to investors and creators
Creators use cheaper production and less sophisticated technology to produce more bad content
Investors want great money and follow " the digital trend"
... but this alteration fails to deliver return on investment
Digital
Education
invades media domain
PARADOX
Education has been resisting "digital revolution" until 2010, when Khan Academy, Coursera, eDX and Udacity finally broke the front, offering Education-on-demand for free but with paid options
People
hate to learn
as they
love to learn
as they hate to pay for education but they respect good (paid) education as they dislike "too smart" people
SOLUTION
PROBLEM
Educational content competes for the same time that is now occupied by various mass media; as educational content matures it will be more engaging, more emotional, more interactive - and far more pragmatically useful than news and entertainment
Mass Culture & Mass Media & Massive Profits
BIG MONEY LIKES BIG AUDIENCES
Digital Media has the problem: no audience size is big enough to feel secure
In Goode Olde Days of Newspapers...
... certain size of the audience and certain reach was profitable, guaranteed.
Tekevision Age discovery...
... the audience may be sold wholesale, sliced and grounded... by GRP ... commodity contacts...
Internet Universe Rules...
... something is wrong with sales conversion, bring me more, and more, and more (bots)
Digital Media has devalued the price of a customer contact, as did television with radio and print. Mobile will do the same with Web-based media. Something that comes next with attempt to do it with Mobile.
BE PREPARED
DIGITAL HYPERINFLATION
Someone will always offer someting similar to what digital media produces, but cheaper, faster, easier and once again cheaper
In 2012 we called this areas
What is Hot in 2014?
Car as a comprehensive media platform
More Education Media Content
More Local Context Media
Digital Things with
communication capacity
UNCHANGED
UNCHANGED
UNDER REVIEW
Future Media Outlook
was updated
in December 2013
by
Novosti MediaLab
Special Thanks
to the presidential decree that ordered the liquidation of RIA Novosti
return to
Full transcript