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Transcript of FUTURE_MEDIA_OUTLOOK_2013
we called Media
Mass Media is only a part of society services.
If society has a problem, mass media has a big problem, too.
Reasons of Failure
It's not Media Industry
is The Consumer
Listen to pessimists
the real problem
but outside trends decide how media will look like
Society & Government
Although we see some bright opportunities, we concentrate on threats and crises that could happen in 2014-2024 and affect media industry
(c) Novosti MediaLab & ABMedia Consulting LP
What we saw in 2012
Television is still Medium #1
Traditional Web matures
Mobile Web exploding
Printed Media shrinks further
Traditional Outdoor declines
Radio faces LTE+ challenges
Media Co's cut on every aspect of material production and material distribution - death spiral for printed media
Frequently updated content (news) considered a commodity - low investment in production & technology
Rise of non-exclusive, global content both in nishes and general interest: cheaper to rent than to produce
Old companies dare to keep 100-yo model to sustain traditional production: pay walls, paid access
government(s) endorse more values control (Russia/China)
government(s) endorse more behaviour control (NSA/China)
open data is too open for everybody
privacy concerns trade-offs widen
"constructivity" of media as an opposition to social responsibilty
government grants are evil, but the only survival aid for old media
digital divide 2.0
totally connected world
digital ID & cloud for everything & everybody
superb flawless location services
excessive real-time services
Device Trends Split
YES to displays - better technology gives better acceptance and penetration for digital media
YES to mobile broadband - 4G LTE and beyond
YES to personal analytics based on the net' usage (KYC-battle) - socially enabled device as Your universal ID
Where all futurists fail
Devices & Technologies
Displays reach final tech spec's level (RetinaX)
New security protocols (DigitalID)
Device as an Extention of Men
Cloud AI works better & faster than mass media
do become more and more mainstream media
not trading loyalty any further
touchable screens remain primarily
pro-sumers could not replace professional journalists
but tend to co-exist
exchanges replace traditional display buyer
are not yet finished and will not be finished anytime soon
Empire Strikes Back
Print, Radio, Broadcast TV
is not bright
be prepared to ugly
but no money
Media as Education
Media Typology 2020
1. Independent Global Sector
2. National Restricted by Funding
3. Private Guerilla Media
4. Private Device Based
5. Public Mutually Funded (Multi-Local)
6. Public Old Style (dying out)
1. Classic TV
(multiple platforms, social layer, hyper-focused ads)
2. Touch based TV
(capturing short free time, real-time series, telepresence addiction)
3. Future Web Media
(multi-screen-based, device-initiated, available everywhere)
4. Local Sevice-based
(last print domain, intense mobile interaction, DigitalID&Location based)
5. Radio over LTE
(new types of audio access)
6. 2nd Generation Social Media
(on all devices, but via a «walled garden», sometimes filtered by the states)
1. Service-coupled model (subscription 2.0, per-use base (digitalID+cloud credit, part of service fee (visible or not)
2. Affiliation-coupled model (brand buys You a media if You’re loyal)
3. Public Funding 2.0 (local budgets feed local media by digital voting p.e.)
4. Advertising model (40-45% of media income, traditional CPM-model + lead generation + behaviour capturing model on mobile and further experiments with direct media access)
5. PR-funded (well, good&evil always come together)
Business Models 2020
New & Newest Media Acspects:
Reasons for an annual update: Novosti MediaLab observes a number of trends that are changing or have a capacity to change basic scenarios
Massive shift towards mobile digital consumption of content accelerates and broadens. Digital paywall models (on certain markets & segments) proved some sustainabilty and should be included as a possible future factor. Media globalization trends have been fiercely opposed by older-type governments.
Government-funded media directed to a plain propaganda vehicles. Ad market still TV-dominated, but more and more money "digitizing" - with some preference to online video and RTB/retargeting.
Social network distribution outpaced expectations in a share growth 2x, with Instagram beating the audience forecast by 200% with all other networks stagnating or falling. Media startups funding relatively stable, but most investment go to aggregation and distribution rather than content creation.
obvious agenda today
Digital Education as Media
Workforce Shifts: robots, sensors, augmentation
Short, shorter, shortest News
Crowdfunding as Content*
Filter bubble tools: old & new
Urbanism as Media Communication*
are more influential momentarily, but may decrease as fast.
have longer effect and will influence most of segments at least for 5 more years. Trends with asterisk * will be a subject of a separate forecast document.
Circulation declines another 8% (USA, Europe, Russia)
Paywalls becoming a mainstream (675+ cases)
No significant revenue from paywalls (in Russia, except Vedomosti). Tests expand to TV (TVRain).
New editorial trend - short, shorter, shortest. Cheap viral content in general interest prevails.
In Russia, attempts to alter the trend fail due to worsening quality of the newsroom journalists
Younger audiences tend to move primarily to mobile media consumption regardless the content (text, audio, video, multimedia).
older audiences tend to agree to pay for "preferred platform" (paper, traditional web, pay TV).
Cord-cutting becomes standard for younger audiences (reasons both technology and content).
Tell me more:
Older audiences tend to access "other content" on alternative platfoms.
we said that
More content services from Network
Mobile Social Networks free
Privacy concerns grow
Live Social Broadcast becomes standard
Social TV (second screen) comes
Government "fixes" media
iPhone 5s in China
in 2013 we confirm our concerns over growing
we also underlined some Societal Factors
Conservatism on the rise everywhere.
Migration issues are becoming major social climax nearly everywhere.
Generation gap & generational digital divide engages more and more people, societies, countries.
... Some new trends come to a light
3D Printing & Production Content
Advanced Video (Multi-layer)
Possible Bandwidth Constraints
2013 was the year when DIY-economy started to get the shape. 3D models for fabrication become a shareble and commercial content (The Fab)
Interactive, panoramic, 360-degrees and other forms of the advanced video distribution become available and gain user acceptance.
In 2009, Peter Schwartz has analysed "video overload" in CISCO's Future of Internet as a threat to national development, democracy and freedom.
to text-picture traffic
to text-picture traffic
displays - more, bigger, safer, touchable, connected etc
mobile broadband more and more
biocomputers, quantum computers
major AI improvements (Siri, artificial personalities)
«know your client» battle (Apple vs Google)
3D printing for final consumer
2012 version of trends
2013 major trends
STILL WAITING for biocomputers, quantum computers
STILL WAITING for "consumer AI"
STILL WAITING for meaningful wearable technology
UNDER REVIEW - 3D printing for final consumer
UNDER REVIEW - Google Glass ecosystem
2013 minor trends
Elderly population overweight
Generational gap crucially affects social policy
Youth unemployment exceeds 20%
Social budget crisis inevitable
Major unemplyment problems
More conflicts will arise between an outdated State & modern society groups
1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday of November
US Presidential Elections
New Agenda in the White House: possibly more "green" and more "digital"
Russian Presidential Elections
Putin's 4th term in the office?
Or new balance of powers?
1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday of November
US Presidential Elections
"Greener", "Digerati", "Local"
Cheaper Energy Effects
Massive Robotic Workforce Shifts
Drone Armies vs Traditional Armies
Re-Education Global Programs
New state forms
High danger of National Divide
Decline of Moscow State
Last Brain Drain
Russian Presidential Elections
Putin must leave the office under Constitution
older generations resist new technologies
"digital states" subdue outdated societies without a war
establshes numerous bans on technology and communication
Russia loses digital "Crimean War". New leader, new modernization
Scenario: Worse Government
Scenario: Existential Walls
Some states will limit or close global Net connectivity to prevent their citizens from news & inspiration from abroad, citing "cultural values" as a reason. Minor political unrest with a following brain drain.
International institutions fail to maintain digital liberties. The Net is divided, but massive Resistance pop up both online and offline. High instability.
More liberal and democratic states will "erect value walls" to prevent conservative influence from Islamic and/or Orthodox states. New forms of McCarthysm. Digital Crusades. Informational Wars.
In a blocade, conservative societies turn to weapons and assault actions in the Cyberspace. Global systems targeted, turning the regular life in a mayhem. Anti-Net movements, blaming the Intertet in a failure. Global Disconnect.
Scenario: Mind, Inc
Corporate Research succeeds with AI improvements, offering the states invisible content filtering and brain washing technologies. Digitally uniformed societies with all alternative marginilized.
Corporations redraw the map of the world based on "firewalls" rather than state borders, utilising the same techniques in marketing and sales, dominating markets and, finally, replacing national government.
National Identity Issues
Prohibition of Connectivity
Back to Caves/Middle Ages Movements
we focused on technological trends and opporunities
we see major risks and trends in the society and governance: technology posses less risks and affects media communications much less than the society and the governments
All this demands only grew in last two years
But media companies insist on their legacy rights
In the next 2-3 years we will see
better and better known devices
but unlikely to spot any critical breakthrough gadget. The limitations has to be broken first in the research of the
cognition science, Human-Computer relationship and Connected Device Personality
. Neither of those issues are on the shoulders of engineers and programmers.
Those are MEDIA ISSUES
that are not yet fully addressed by the authors, creators and business.
Artificial Intelligence are us, connected and augmented
Tim O'Reilly, 2013
Internet of Things
an excessive nonsense
if those "things" will not be able to learn from humans and enhance the human's life with new services, expiriences, information and emotions.
Smart devices should have a reason
for the interaction with human, provided that they are intelligent enough to respect our privacy, personality and social behavior.
Smart devices will move from data collection and communication management to the role of
adaptive assistants, competence augmentors and knowledge capacitators
EXPECTED BOOM 2015-2020
Smart does not mean "clever" or "knowledgeble". It speaks of an ability to react, to adapt and to communicate with reason.
Isaak Asimov, 1978
Intelligent Things will need a
new form of content: personality
. Have You ever met Robotic Personality Designer? But You'll certainly do - in the nearest future.
Human enhancement technologies (biological, genetic, exosceleton-type, brain interfaces) will also require some new content that will
mediate human relationship with this "parts"
With Smart Things, we'll see new advertising methods when the
"personality thing" will sell itself to a final customer
(as well as services connected with it and replacement).
EXPECTED BOOM: AFTER 2020
Regardless of any prediction, media companies need to continue their operations, sell products, earn profits and make investment to secure the future for the shareholders, management and workforce.
NO DOOMS DAY SCENARIO: IFRA FORESIGHT 2017
We can be quite sure with D-S-C cells of BCG matrix for a near-future media, but the least feasible would be a prediction of enigmatic "cats". Looks like we don't see them yet as they are grey in a greyish fog of future...
Understanding How it Changes
Early Mobile Media
Small screens, low speed, low band capacity, keyboards
Early 3G Mobile Media
The World of Blackberry (c)
Browsers for Mobile
Mobile is treated as a small screen computer and email device; "just make it readable"
Real time media
The world we live in now. Apps, ecosystems, iOS & Android.
News & Media
Local Services API
Device as Agregator
If 'no breakthrough' projection is true, media companies will have time to create new generation of content services that will fully utilize mobile devices capacities for the user satisfaction.
Digital Things in Content
Sensors as Reporters
Mobile devices integrate the life and collect all the possible context (from sensor data to local news) for the owner
More to come: native mobile video content
Video consumption on mobile is yet to change with a native mobile idea. No legacy TV content will survive on this screen unless its message is adopted to the natural qualities of the mobile consuption.
WHY SHOULD I DARE TO HAVE THIS CONTENT SO CLOSE TO ME?
One specific mobile quality: it is the closest media to a person, carried over 24/7, private & public simultaneously, gateway to social and personal life.
Early adapters care much less than a future mass users, but there is no answer yet.
Social Networks are here to stay. They are compensational tools of a hyper-connected world as they are badass business creatures. We may see deline of the old ones and rise of the new ones, but the concept will live for decades.
There are no chance for a traditional media to "strike back" because they are not native in this domain and their weaponry is no match to the "defenders": main purpose of social net is dialogue, not a broadcast.
Social Networks interfere with so many aspects of a daily life that we will not be able to control emotional privacy. Your joy, your love, your grief, your hate will be recognized with clever social algorithms and publicized - whether You want it or not.
Emotional communications sphere has been one of the foundations of the social networking and it will also become the crucial point in the public debate about those services: older and more conservative population will inevitably resist more public emotions. As well as the states.
Initially, we intended to present some projections for every type of traditional media.
You'll have them in "investment bank analitics style".
But there is nothing more to say then "they will be here in 2020".
As business, Broadcast TV will still be the largest advertising carrier in 2014-2020.
Radio will undergo serious changes as FM distribution will be challenged by 4G offerings. Transformational wave will only come with driverless cars.
Print media trends will remain negative but there is still a number of niche businesses that can thrieve, or develop sustainably.
Outdoor media will be challenged by urban development (Urbanism as Media trend) with globally negative dynamics.
Neither legacy media segment will have a future without digital transformation and adoption of a new business models.
Content is the King (without Kingdom)
Digital platforms finally alter the nature of mass communication
Consumer wants great content
Content creators need investment to produce great content
Digital distribution doesn't provide sufficient return to investors and creators
Creators use cheaper production and less sophisticated technology to produce more bad content
Investors want great money and follow " the digital trend"
... but this alteration fails to deliver return on investment
invades media domain
Education has been resisting "digital revolution" until 2010, when Khan Academy, Coursera, eDX and Udacity finally broke the front, offering Education-on-demand for free but with paid options
hate to learn
love to learn
as they hate to pay for education but they respect good (paid) education as they dislike "too smart" people
Educational content competes for the same time that is now occupied by various mass media; as educational content matures it will be more engaging, more emotional, more interactive - and far more pragmatically useful than news and entertainment
Mass Culture & Mass Media & Massive Profits
BIG MONEY LIKES BIG AUDIENCES
Digital Media has the problem: no audience size is big enough to feel secure
In Goode Olde Days of Newspapers...
... certain size of the audience and certain reach was profitable, guaranteed.
Tekevision Age discovery...
... the audience may be sold wholesale, sliced and grounded... by GRP ... commodity contacts...
Internet Universe Rules...
... something is wrong with sales conversion, bring me more, and more, and more (bots)
Digital Media has devalued the price of a customer contact, as did television with radio and print. Mobile will do the same with Web-based media. Something that comes next with attempt to do it with Mobile.
Someone will always offer someting similar to what digital media produces, but cheaper, faster, easier and once again cheaper
In 2012 we called this areas
What is Hot in 2014?
Car as a comprehensive media platform
More Education Media Content
More Local Context Media
Digital Things with
Future Media Outlook
in December 2013
to the presidential decree that ordered the liquidation of RIA Novosti