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Japanese Remilitarization

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Danielle Joffee

on 13 October 2014

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Transcript of Japanese Remilitarization

Danielle Joffee, Emily Morse, Emily Somma
Deterrents of Remilitarization
Remilitarization
Economic interdependence
Rely on each other for trade
Presence of the United States as Japan's military ally
What would change
Contributing forces dominate or eliminate deterrents
Variety of outcomes that could occur
Implications for United States
Economic, diplomatic, and/or military
Scenarios Leading to Remilitarization
Remilitarization
Dominance of military presence
Japan, U.S., and Indian military exercises
Cause China to feel vulnerable
Japan could amend the Constitution
Military Presence
Sino-Japanese Military Conflict
If Japan were to remilitarize, then Japan and China could be involved in conflict ten years post-remilitarization
Continued Chinese exertion of power
Japanese strike
Japanese
Internal Social
and Political Dynamics
Resource
Competition
Post-Remilitarization:
Economic Sanctions
If Japan were to remilitarize, China could respond with economic sanctions
Cripple Japan's economy
Other economic partners
Preferable to military actions
If Japan were to remilitarize, then relations with China could stay the same
Tensions could still exist, without resulting in military conflict
The Role of the United States
Warming Relations
If Japan were to remilitarize, then relations between Japan and China could potentially strengthen

New, more moderate leader of LDP
Benefit China to better relations
Militaristic Japan
Public opinion and remilitarization
Shifting ideals
If Japan were to remilitarize, then it could lead to Japan becoming a militaristic country
Offensive capabilities and shift in ideals lead to more extreme nationalistic country
Harm relations with China and the US
Militaristic, nationalistic and desperate country
Exogenous
Overall balancing
U.S. publicly declared "Pivot to Asia"
Increasing military presence
Bound by Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security
Support for remilitarization
Strong contributing factor to remilitarization
Military presence in and around disputed territories
Senkaku Islands
China's Air Defense Identification Zone
Increased chance of conflict
Second and third largest economies in the world
Require large amounts of natural resources
Resource shortages within each country
Heightened demand for natural resources leading to territorial disputes

Economic
Interdependence
Strong deterrent to remilitarization
Reliant on each other for trade
Japan's stability is dependent on trade with China
Status Quo
Japanese remilitarization refers to:
The constitutional change increasing the abilities and responsibilities of Japan's military to use it more offensively
Japanese Remilitarization
What is currently going on, how remilitarization could come about, potential future impacts on Sino-Japanese relations, and the implications for the United States.
IA Senior Capstone Symposium 2014
What Does Remilitarization Mean?
Conclusion:
U.S. is very intertwined in Sino-Japanese dynamics
Implications could include:
Militaristic
Economic
Diplomatic
Confidence Level
Current Situation
Futures Analysis
Acknowledgments
Dr. Benton
Dr. Deaton
Dr. Hendrickson
Dr. Marrin
Dr. Tang
Dr. Walton
The IA Faculty

Contact Information:
Danielle Joffee: joffe2da@dukes.jmu.edu
Emily Morse: morseee@dukes.jmu.edu
Emily Somma: sommaea@dukes.jmu.edu

Futures Analysis
The Role of the U.S.
Internal Social and Political Dynamics
Military Presence
Economic Interdependence
Resource Competition
Contributing
Deterring

Increasing
Decreasing
Consistent
Implications
United States involved in conflict
Multiple nuclear actors
Negative impact on U.S. economy
Implications

More dependent on the United States for trade
Could harm the global economy
Implications
Could cause the U.S. to maintain civil relations with both China and Japan
Implications
U.S. relations with Japan more intertwined with China
Implications
Lose Japan as an ally
Strengthen relations with China
Accidental collision
LDP gains more power
Economic sanctions
U.S. ends treaty
Chosen Scenario
Trilateral alliance

Increasing tensions between China and Japan
Direct impact on the United States
Range of implications for the United States


Systems Dynamics
Full transcript