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Web version of predicted success rates for partners and stakeholders

Level 2 Stakeholders

Shannon Myrick

on 20 February 2018

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Transcript of Web version of predicted success rates for partners and stakeholders

Youth Reformation System
Pre-Disposition ORRA
Displayed in JJIS upon petition filing -- instead of at disposition (ORRA)

Variables included in Pre-Dispo ORRA are the same variables creating ORRA

ORRA Score vs. Pre-Dispo ORRA Score

Score difference between ORRA and Pre-Dispo ORRA
Created using a cluster analysis

Typologies are like planets

Six Male Typologies (A - F)

Four Female Typologies (1 - 4)
school history
current use of
free time
history of relationships
family history
history of drug
and alcohol
history of
mental health
current drug
and alcohol
attitudes, behaviors
and aggression
school history
free time
drug and alcohol use
mental health
family history
Two options to obtain a youth typology:
OYA Risk and Needs Assessment (RNA)
Oregon Typology Assessment (OTA)
OYA Recidivisim Risk Assessment:
predicts the likelihood a youth will recidivate with a felony conviction or adjudication within 36 months of commitment to probation or release from OYA close custody.
Typologies provide:
Need profiles
Identifies strengths and needs
Information for treatment planning
Guidance toward case planning
Common language for case reviews
Variables in ORRA include:
Prior weapon offense referral
Total prior misdemeanor referrals
Total prior felony referrals
Prior delinquency adjudication
Current sex offense disposition
Oregon's Juvenile Justice System:
The YRS uses
data, research, and predictive analytics to inform decision-making and support professional discretion to improve outcomes for youth, reduce future victimization, and maximize effective and efficient use of resources.
to enhance Oregon Juvenile Justice

Where can I find this information
about a specific youth?
Strengths and Limitations
Scenario #1: John
Fourteen-year-old male from a rural community.
Moderate history with the juvenile department including referrals for: burglary, assault, and possession of marijuana.
Supportive family working collaboratively with the team working with him.
Currently involved with a county drug and alcohol program, individual and family counseling, and a juvenile counselor.
In the 9th grade and passing all classes.
Historically has enjoyed playing sports.
Recent increase in his use of substances and is skipping school on a regular basis.
Recent referral to the juvenile department for Unauthorized Use of a Motor Vehicle and Driving Under the Influence.
Typology E with an ORRA score of 23.
Predicted Success Rates
Scenario #3: Aaron
Twelve-year-old male who currently resides in a suburban community.
Lives with his mother, father, older sister, and younger brother.
Currently on informal supervision with the juvenile department for criminal mischief.
Recently was referred to the juvenile department for Assault in the Second Degree and Kidnapping.
Family is devastated and is willing to do anything to keep him at home.
Family presents very stable: mother and father have consistent employment and no history of criminality or substance abuse.
His peers are described as prosocial and they play sports or ride bikes together.
Typology D with an ORRA score of 14.

Interpreting the score:
Each youth has a score between 0 and 100
The score approximates the probability that the youth will recidivate
For example, a youth with a score of 40 has a 40% probability they will recidivate
Conversely, the youth has a 60% likelihood to NOT recidivate
Predicted Success Rates
Predicts the likelihood a youth will be successful in each environment
(RNA or OTA)
Three estimates
County Probation
OYA Community Placement
(or Pre-Dispo ORRA)
The fine print:

Number of observations and predictive accuracy by environment
JCP = County Probation Predicted Success Rate
Specific questions within the JCP create the county probation score
Typology + ORRA = OYA Predicted Success Rates
OYA Community Placement
Contact your county juvenile department or local OYA parole/probation office.
Non-JJIS User
For additional training on YRS or YRS tools, contact the YRS team:
Shannon Myrick
Strategic Initiatives Manager

Kirsten Kolb
Project Manager

Creating the ideal system:
Who are we working with?

How can we maximize limited resources?

How can we increase effectiveness?

How can we engage our partners and stakeholders?

Population Forecast
"Right Youth"
and Treatment
"Right Placement, Right Treatment, and Right Length of Time"
Program Evaluation
"Right Outcomes"
Community Context
"Right Transition Supports"
New Tools
Female Typologies
Pre-Disposition ORRA
Predicted Success Rates
Current Tools
Male Typologies
OYA Recidivism Risk
Assessment (ORRA)
Predicted Success Rates

§ 419A.257 Reports and Materials Privileged
Note: The accuracy of ORRA is similar across several demographic subgroups (e.g., ethnicity, gender, most serious crime, and disposition level).
Success: not recidivating with a felony conviction or adjudication within 36 months of commitment to probation or release from OYA close custody
Seventeen-year-old male from an urban area
Twelve referrals to the juvenile department resulting in 3 formal probation supervision episodes.
Acknowledges his association with gang members but states he is not a gang member.
Currently residing with his grandmother and three younger siblings in three-bedroom apartment.
During his Freshman year, he was kicked off the football team for attending practice under the influence of alcohol.
History of mild depression that started when his mother was incarcerated.
Before the county resource committee with a new referral for carrying a dangerous weapon and possession of a controlled substance.
Described by others as being funny, engaging, and sociable.
Typology A with an ORRA score of 42.
Scenario #2: Shawn
Predicted Success Rates
Full transcript