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Climate Adaptation Planning - A Practical Application to Infrastructure Management

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Dillon Consulting

on 13 September 2017

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Transcript of Climate Adaptation Planning - A Practical Application to Infrastructure Management

Why is This Important?
For property owner insurance policies, the single largest contributor to claims in 2013 was sewer back-ups, totaling over $3.0 billion CDN.
Sewer back-up has become a major risk to municipalities (owners of the infrastructure) and to the Insurance Industry.
Historically, the largest contributor was losses due to fire.
Purpose of the Municipal Risk Assessment Tool
Allow government to help identify the risks of infrastructure failure and facilitate prioritization of public investment in infrastructure.
Enable insurers to understand the risks they are underwriting so that appropriate premium coverage can be determined.
Problem Definition
Problem Definition...Sewer Back-up
What is the current risk of sewer back-up across Canada based on existing climatic conditions?
What is the risk of sewer back-up across Canada based on future climate change projections?
Is the existing infrastructure adequate to address current and future climatic conditions?
If not, what mitigation is required?
Risk Assessment Tool Concept
Calculation of Risk
Integrated Information Layers
Climate Scenarios
Meteorological Data
Downscaling
Municipal Infrastructure
Municipal Procedures
Physiographic Factors
Upscaling
Application to Other Infrastructure Types
New analytical techniques are enabling us to explore risk with greater confidence and higher resolution - geographically by asset type
Web access to sensors (real time) and monitoring data and processing tools is increasing our confidence risk mapping outputs
Background
Infrastructure engineered design principles are based on our understanding of historical climatic trends (IDF).
The assumption that future conditions will be similar to past conditions - no long applies.
Rapidly changing climate and more extreme events means some existing infrastructure is at risk.
What are the risks to infrastructure and our communities?
How do you allocate finite capital and operations and maintenance funding to address high risk areas?
How do you identify, characterize, assess and identify specific high risk areas?
Questions
Probability
Exposure
Vulnerability
Climate Change
Infrastructure
Risk = Probability x Exposure x Vulnerability
Demonstration City – 2050 Upper

Loss & Loss Adjustment Expenses
* 2013 H1 Estimated
Source: IBC Facts Book, PCS, Swiss Re, Munich Re & Deloitte
Values in 2012 $ CAN
Large Catastrophic Losses
Project History
IBC officially launched MRAT on Nov 21, 2013 in 3 pilot municipalities (Coquitlam, Hamilton, and Fredericton).
Data being updated, new analytics and new risk maps being developed for pilot municipalities.
MRAT being validated by municipal engineers of pilot municipalities by June 30, 2014

Initial 9 collaborating municipalities:







Bathurst, NB Coquitlam, BC Fredericton, NB Halifax, NS
Hamilton, ON London, ON Moncton, NB St. John’s, NL
Winnipeg, MB

Municipal Engagement
Current Status
MRAT prototype was developed between
2010 and 2013:
Climate and municipal data obtained;
Data analytics and prototype risk maps developed; and
Built relationships with FCM, participating municipalities, federal and provincial governments.

Extreme weather events that historically occurred once in every ~40 years are now happening every ~6 years.
How can municipalities assess and prioritize their infrastructure investments, adapt to severe climate events, reduce the risk of infrastructure failure and insurance claims?
MRAT uses a statistical model to quantify and map the potential failure risk of municipal sewer and stormwater infrastructure to determine the probability of insurance claims.

MRAT is a partnership between
municipalities and the insurance
industry.
The tool uses three kinds of data:
Municipal infrastructure data (600+ indicators)
Current and future climate
Sewer back-up events

What is MRAT?
What is MRAT?
Data Map Viewer
Demonstration City - Current Risk
Demonstration City - Risk 2020 Lower
Demonstration City - Risk 2020 Upper
Demonstration City - Risk 2050 Lower
Demonstration City - Risk 2050 Upper
David Poole
dpoole@dillon.ca
403.215.8880 ext. 4324
Bruce MacArthur
bruce.macarthur@tesera.com
403.851.9904
Climate Adaption Planning
A Practical Application to Infrastructure Management
Thank you
Regional Conditions
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