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Transcript of Driverless
sooner : later
/ freedom aspirations
/ automotive development
/ rise of sharing economy
/ digitalisation and artificial intelligence
Will driver assistance evolve gradually into
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
adaptive cruise control
automated lane changing
increase in traffic 1990-2015
wasted lifetimes/day (in USA alone...)
(assuming 50min RT commute)
potential emission reduction
city area devoted to streets and parking
(driverless cars: pack roads 8 times more efficiently)
/ taxi drivers
/ bus fleets
/ traffic police
/ A&E doctors
/ insurance adjusters
more workforce related changes:
/ 30-40% underemployment within 30 years?
/ implications of large scale automation?
/ attitudes towards underemployment/leisure?
/ industrialists vs. data companies?
/ production taken into state hands?
/ emphasis on regulatory regimes vs. ownership?
but not just related to driverless vehicles…
...elimination of 50% of today’s jobs
/ hotel service
/ basic healthcare
/ manage/regulate free space to lock in benefits
/ anticipate new business models (e.g. service vs. commodity)
/ optimise sharing (creates more benefits than automation)
sooner : later
/ accidents: virtually none; lower premiums
/ responsibility: shifts from driver to vehicle
/ data: anticipate and evaluate movement
/ Toyota Prius / Lexus RX retrofits
/ over 7 years, 2.5 million miles
+ Oxford Mobile Robotics
i.e. consumer confidence
(32 billion litres)
city area 295 skm
streets 74 skm
parking spaces 1.200 million
even 100 hectares AV zone:
EUR 1.0 - 1.5 billion
additional land value
metro area 133 skm
streets --- skm
parking spaces ------ million
...and related initiatives:
edinburgh: land release?
100 hectares AV zone?
2.4 million parking spaces
950K registered vehicles
cause of death among young people
serious casualties (including 1,040 children)
total road casualties
are we needed?
time cars parked
additional city area for housing, public realm
old oak/park royal
early opportunity areas?
autonomous vehicles on the roads by 2025.