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Driverless

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by

christopher choa

on 12 April 2017

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Transcript of Driverless

driverless
context
technology
sooner : later
/ navigation
+
/ intelligence
/ freedom aspirations
/ automotive development
/ rise of sharing economy
/ digitalisation and artificial intelligence
potential
Will driver assistance evolve gradually into
fully-autonomous cars?
DARPA challenge
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
1982
automatic transmission
air bags
digital diagnostics
satnavs
voice-control phones
web connectivity

automated parking
automated braking
adaptive cruise control
automated lane changing

1897
1
2
3
4
safety


time


environment


space






1,200,000
#1
93%
46%

162
7,000,000,000

30%
30%-50%
deaths/year, globally
increase in traffic 1990-2015


wasted lifetimes/day (in USA alone...)

(assuming 50min RT commute)
gallons fuel/year,


potential emission reduction
city area devoted to streets and parking

(driverless cars: pack roads 8 times more efficiently)
/ taxi drivers
/ bus fleets
/ traffic police
/ A&E doctors
/ insurance adjusters
etc...

more workforce related changes:

/ 30-40% underemployment within 30 years?
/ implications of large scale automation?
/ attitudes towards underemployment/leisure?
/ industrialists vs. data companies?
/ production taken into state hands?
/ emphasis on regulatory regimes vs. ownership?


but not just related to driverless vehicles…
2050
...elimination of 50% of today’s jobs
:

/ manufacturing,
/ farming
/ mining
/ security
/ construction
/ retail
/ hotel service
/ aviation
/ basic healthcare
/ insurance
etc...


/ manage/regulate free space to lock in benefits
/ anticipate new business models (e.g. service vs. commodity)
/ optimise sharing (creates more benefits than automation)
increased
more
cleaner
more
sooner : later
now
workforce
liability
/ accidents: virtually none; lower premiums
/ responsibility: shifts from driver to vehicle
/ data: anticipate and evaluate movement



/ Toyota Prius / Lexus RX retrofits
/ over 7 years, 2.5 million miles


LIDAR
KITT
Hoff
Sebastian Thrun
2005
2008+
1946
1958
2015+
Lutz Pathfinder
+ Oxford Mobile Robotics

Milton Keynes
Google SDC
2014+
Mercedes F015
2015+
source: KPMG
source: KPMG
i.e. consumer confidence
machine
learning
incremental
adaptation
solved...
UdaCity
(Stanford)
(Google)
globally
(32 billion litres)
solid?
christopher.choa@aecom.com
large-scale adoption
city area 295 skm
streets 74 skm
parking spaces 1.200 million
frankfurt
even 100 hectares AV zone:
europe usa
EUR 1.0 - 1.5 billion
15%
land release
additional land value
(29,500 ha)
(7,400 ha)
(1,440 ha)
singapore
land release
metro area 133 skm
streets --- skm
parking spaces ------ million
(------ ha)
(------ ha)
(------ ha
pittsburgh
(uber)



singapore
(taxi)



san francisco
(uber)
...and soon:

Austin, TX
Kirkland, WA
Boston, MA

...and related initiatives:

London
Beijing
Helsinki
Tokyo
edinburgh: land release?
100 hectares AV zone?
2.4 million parking spaces
950K registered vehicles
challenges
governance
2016
2016...
human factors
cause of death among young people
fatalities


serious casualties (including 1,040 children)


total road casualties
165
1,595
11,240
scotland
The Student
are we needed?
time cars parked
additional city area for housing, public realm
96%
kings cross
old oak/park royal
9,000,000
22,500
parking spaces
hectares
.
early opportunity areas?
autonomous vehicles on the roads by 2025.
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