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A Walk through Washington's K-12 System Data
Emily Perskyon 3 October 2012
Transcript of A Walk through Washington's K-12 System Data
- Demographics 4th Grade Reading OSPI and NCES 8th Grade Math OSPI and NCES Graduation Rates OSPI and USED College Enrollment & Remediation NCHEMS, IMF, ERDC 4th grade reading scores decreased 12% since 2005 while math scores increased 13%. Reading & Math 4th Grade Reading 8th Grade Math On-time graduation rates have increased for most subgroups. Graduation Rates College Enrollment & Remediation Leaky Pipeline... Skills Mismatch Index State level post-secondary data Children living in poverty Takeaways Changing demographics Poverty & Income Socioeconomic Inputs Washington's rate of children living in poverty increased 27% between 2008 and 2010.
(14.3% to 18.2%) Remember, for a household of 4, the poverty guideline is a household income of $23,050. Are we ready? The economic recession continues to disproportionately impact children and families of color. Counties with the largest child poverty rates are projected to experience the greatest percent increase in their student populations. Some of our most under-served subgroup student populations are expected to increase by more than 25% over the next 20 years. Washington's median family income decreased less during the recession and remains higher than the nation's. We wanted to focus on the gaps, so we used ratios. Median Family Income But we know opportunity gaps exist. Gaps are widening. Takeaways: Opportunity
gaps? Income If this trend continues, by 2022 we will have lost all of the gains we've made in 4th grade Reading since we began testing in 1996. The percent of 4th graders meeting standard on the state reading assessment peaked in 2005-06 and has decreased by 10 percentage points over the last 6 years. In 2005-06, at the same time the percent of 4th graders meeting standard peaked, opportunity gaps appeared to be closing. But since then, those gaps have widened again. Particularly for our American Indian students; the percent meeting standard on 4th grade reading decreased 24% (17 percentage points) since 2005-06. Only 52.2% of American Indian students met standard in 2011-12. Although our 4th graders consistently score above the national average on NAEP Reading, there is a difference of 40% between our state and NAEP's measures of proficiency. National Context Race/Ethnicity The gap between low income (identified by eligibility for Free/Reduced Lunch)and non-low income students has widened since 2004-05. 67.7%
met standard 59.7%
met standard American Indian and Black students are increasingly overrepresented in special education. American Indian students are 1.77 times more likely to be identified as having a disability than all other students. Although this gap narrowed slightly in 2011-2012, it remains larger than gaps between white students and students of color as well as between low income and non-low income students. Students with Disabilities The percent of "all" 4th graders who met standard decreased 12%, but the percent of Limited English Proficient 4th graders who met standard decreased 37%. English Language Learners We need to know more about change(s) that took place around 2005, which could explain the peak and subsequent decrease in 4th graders meeting standard.
Whatever the cause(s) may be for the drop in 4th grade reading scores, our most under-served subgroups are being disproportionately impacted. Takeaways Opportunity gaps? The largest increase in the percent of 8th graders who met standard in math occurred between the 2010-11 and 2011-12 school years . National Context The 16% difference between our state and NAEP's measures of 8th grade math proficiency is less than the difference between our measures for 4th grade reading. Race/Ethnicity Gaps are narrowing for Black and Hispanic students, but widening for Pacific Islander and American Indian students. Students with Disabilities Even though this opportunity gap is wider for 8th grade math than it is for 4th grade reading, it has narrowed 38% since 2005-06. But to keep things in perspective, only 13.3% of students with disabilities met standard in 2011-12. Income Again, this gap is larger for 8th grade math than it is for 4th grade reading but similarly impressive gains have been made since 2005. In 2011-12, 41% of low income 8th graders met standard on the math MSP, which reflects an increase of 10 percentage points since 2005-06. English Language Learners While the percent of English Language Learners who met standard on the 8th grade math MSP has increased since 2005, there is considerable room for improvement. The percent of 8th graders meeting math standard is significantly lower than the percent of 4th graders meeting reading standard; however, we are making gains toward closing proficiency and opportunity gaps.
Except for American Indian students - they are the only subgroup that didn't experience a bump in the percent of students meeting 8th grade math standard.
The low rate of English Language Learners (ELL) meeting standard in 8th grade math comports with several reports in the last 5 years recommending that content teachers receive professional development to support their instruction of ELLs. National comparison? Takeaways Opportunity gaps? Because states have applied inconsistent formulas to calculate their graduation rates, it is hard to find good data at the national level.
We should have better data in the next few years. Starting in 2009-10, states have been required to report the "four-year adjusted cohort graduation rate."
In 2011, Washington's four-year adjusted cohort graduation rate reflected a slight increase from our traditional calculation method:
On-time graduation 75.0%
4-year adjusted cohort: 76.6% Race/Ethnicity While opportunity gaps are narrowing for Black and Hispanic student graduation rates, the gap is widening for Pacific Islander students and stagnant for American Indian students. English Language Learners' on-time and extended graduation rates have dropped since 2006-07.
On-time: -3.2 percentage points
Extended: - 2.6 percentage points Data availability impacts our ability to make national comparisons and to calculate opportunity gaps for our English Language Learner, Low Income, and Special Education student populations.
Graduation rates for Pacific Islander students and English Language Learners have decreased over the last five years while other subgroups' rates have increased. Linking to these themes in our strategic plan:
Closing the achievement (opportunity ) gap.
Strengthening transitions in the P-13 system. But is it really that leaky? According to the June 2012 ERDC Research Brief, "Postsecondary Enrollment Patterns," almost 51% of our 2004-05 high school graduates received a postsecondary award by 2010, and almost 23% were still enrolled in postsecondary education. American Indian and Hispanic students are significantly underrepresented in postsecondary enrollments. Unfortunately, this data does not distinguish between Pacific Islander and Asian students. Postsecondary Enrollment Pre-college (Remedial) Coursework Takeaways The students who "leak" out of our pipeline are disproportionately students of color and low-income students.
Our under-served subgroup student populations - especially Hispanic, Black, and low-income students - are not prepared for postsecondary coursework when they leave our K-12 system.
The lack of consistently disaggregated and longitudinal post-secondary feedback data limits the ability of K-12 policymakers and practitioners to make informed decisions about secondary education. The 3 racial/ethnic subgroup student populations expected to increase the most by 2030 are:
Bi-racial and multi-racial students by 85%
Asian/Pacific Islanders by 53%
Hispanics by 28%
The counties in central and eastern Washington that are projected to have the largest school age populations in 2020 also have some of the highest child poverty rates in the state.
In-migration is expected to increase over the next 20 years and account for slightly more than half of overall population growth. If reading scores continue to drop, students - especially our under-served subgroups - won't have the literacy skills to access math and science content in middle and high school. How do we improve and prepare?
Do we need more data?
- If so, what do we need?
Strongly emphasized themes in the Board's work:
- Closing opportunity gaps
- Strengthening transitions
Within the Board's scope of work:
- Achievement Index & Accountability Framework
- Graduation Requirements
- Basic Education Act compliance But improvement in 8th grade math scores shows that the right focus can produce positive results for our kids. We currently struggle to serve the student populations expected to increase the most. What and who should we focus on? Are we ready? What do our kids bring with them to school? Allows us to put state assessment data in perspective - comparable to the 4th grade reading National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)
Provides valuable information about students' literacy levels and ability to access content in middle school. Again - allows us to put state assessment data in perspective by comparing to the 8th grade math National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)
Provides valuable information about students' basic math skills and ability to access STEM content opportunities in high school. Tell us if and which students will be able to access postsecondary opportunities. College enrollment data tell us if and which students enroll in postsecondary education - this is becoming increasingly necessary to compete for jobs in Washington State.
Rates of pre-college or remedial course taking tell us how well our K-12 system prepares students for the post-secondary opportunities of two and four year colleges. Kids Count & OFM 41.3% met standard 40.9% met standard 30.9% met standard 8.4% met standard 13.3% met standard