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Ukens Orientering: Post-Normal Science & Science-based Advice at the Institute of Marine Research

Wednesday, Feb 18, 2015; Ukens Orientering, HI kantine

Dorothy Dankel

on 9 November 2016

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Transcript of Ukens Orientering: Post-Normal Science & Science-based Advice at the Institute of Marine Research

Acknowledgements to
Jeroen van der Sluijs, Silvio Funtowicz & colleagues at SVT for material & critical discussions

"How can uncertain science be linked with good governance processes, thereby increasing fisheries management legitimacy and effectiveness?"
Credibility, legitimacy, transparency & "yrkesstolthet" are at stake
Post-Normal Science scholars in Bergen recognizes this problem & offer concrete methods
What does a Post-Normal fisheries toolbox look like?
Post-Normal Science in Practice: Introduction & Application to Science-based Advice at IMR
What is
Normal Science?

introduce the concept of Post-Normal Science
relate to challenges in science-based advice at the Institute of Marine Research
propose future collaborations in science-based advice between IMR & UiB
stock assessment
management guidance
total allowable catch
catch data
model structure
survey coverage
fleet structure
future employment
recreational infrastructure
consumer needs
societal perception
No real will for an integrated assessment
standard stock assessment science & derived advice
deficit view/evidence evaluation view
("more research needed/but let's agree on a number this week")
IMR is mandated to give science-based advice on fish stocks & ecosystems
The underlying science has inherent uncertainties, is sometimes irreproducible & undocumented & based on value judgements
"Yrkesstolthet" and renewed sense of "purpose" from relevant problem framing & application of relevant tools
940 000 tonnes
Underlying issues with science-based advice
What does this number/indicator/reference point mean?
2009 CSRG (Technical Minutes...) has a general comment "The issue of misreporting appears to be an enforcement problem that cannot be directly resolved from a modeling standpoint. Although catch estimates are adjusted in order to attempt to resolve this problem, it appears almost impossible to accurately judge misreporting rates. It is suggested that better documentation is made of how catch is adjusted and the reasoning behind such adjustments. Although the method maybe sound, little documentation is given, this makes it difficult for outside sources to determine how or why catch levels were adjusted."
2010 RGNS (Annex 4 of WKNSSK) has a general comment "Documentation of SAM: Expert group suggests a transition to SAM as the assessment model for several stocks. However, the review group suggests that better documentation of SAM will be needed. The current reference for SAM is the ICES WGBFAS Report 2008 Working Paper 7. The working paper is not a complete source document, should be peer reviewed, and made available to reviewers."
2011 NWRG (Annex 5 of NWWG) Icelandic Slope Sebastes mentella "All methods were similar to what was stated in the Annex, with the possible exception of the catch split method (further documentation is needed)."
2012 CSRG (Annex 4...) has a general comment "Some general issues were raised relating to discards, standardized methods (especially for data poor species and UWTV models for Nephrops), and lack of documentation for lesser known assessment models."
Is the science in question?
Not reproducible
Dialogue in the Extended Peer Community
2013 RGANW (Final 2013) Arctic cod
"Considering the two methodologies are VPA-based it is unclear to the Review Group why one program is better than the other without documented evidence. Considering this decision may impact the historical consistency in the assessment, better documentation of this decision in the annex should be provided."
How certain is it?
What is its role?
What is the role of the assessment?
Normal Science
Post-Normal Science
statistical significance

uncertain facts
high stakes
urgent decisions
tacit knowledge
personal skill
small-scale experiments
"Science never helped any political process" -Dan Sarewitz
"interpretive flexibility"
post WWII transformation of science: science-based policy
continue to do normal science, but with extended peers, framing & skills
large-scale experiments, high societal purpose
re-focusing the University & training to societal relevance (Havforskerskolen)
Goals of this talk:
Dorothy's degrees:
Centre for the Study of the Sciences & the Humanities, UiB (2010-present)
Institute of Marine Research (2006-2014)
ICES Expert Group Chair, Working Group Marine Systems (formerly WG Fishery Systems) (2010-2014)
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (2007-present)
Board Member, Nordic Marine Think Tank (2013-present)

Ph.D. (2009) UiB: "Building blocks of sustainability in marine fisheries management" (Dankert Skagen/Øyvind Ulltang/Mikko Heino)
Master's (2004) UiB: "Evaluating performance of single vs. multi-parameter harvest control rules" (Øyvind Fiksen/Mikko Heino)
Bachelor of Arts (2001) Hillsdale College: Biology & French
Uncertainty Matrix
Pedigree Matrix
Knowledge Quality
Dutch Wunderkind: SVT's new professor
Jeroen van der Sluijs

Invited Talks & Break-Out Sessions
Science for Policy: Post-Normal Science in Practice
December 10-11, 2014

Centre for the Study of the Sciences & the Humanities (SVT), University of Bergen

sensitivity auditing; "all models are wrong, but some are useful"
quantitative story-telling
PNS eduction: "the ability to critically think beyond one's paradigm"
what is knowledge/questions are relevant?
what is the ethical basis of excellent science?
Bring together the Post-Normal Science scholars to disseminate and discuss their experiences on 3 main topics:
Climate science for policy
Marine science for policy
Bio-medical for policy

is more than a number
technical (inexactness)
methodological (unrealiability)
epistemological (ignorance)
societal (limited social robustness)
Framings of uncertainty:

uncertainty can be overcome (more research)
more complex models will reduce uncertainty
"Speaking truth to power"

(expert panels, scientific consensus)
comparative evaluations of research results
"Speaking consensus to power"

uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems
openly deal with deeper dimensions of uncertainty
"Working deliberatively within imperfections"
IMR & ICES can better meet clients' needs through post-normal framing and related methods & preserve the meaningfullness & purpose of science
Dorothy J. Dankel, Ph.D.
Centre for the Study of the Sciences & the Humanities, UiB (Senter for Vitenskapsteori, SVT)

Dorothy J. Dankel, Ph.D.
Centre for the Study of the Sciences & the Humanities, UiB
(Senter for Vitenskapsteori, SVT)
Post-Normal Science in Practice: Introduction & Application to Science-based Advice at IMR
The Thomas S. Kuhn Cycle
The Structure of
Scientific Revolutions
less able to solve problems
methods don't work
figure out what you really need
consensus needed
Critique of contemporary Western institutions
Ivan Illich (1926-2002)
institutionalization of education
institutionalization of society
Deschooling Society (1971)
power of technocratic elite
Tools for Conviviality (1973)
contemporary fisheries management?
power of the citizen's practical knowledge
Martin Pastoors, former ICES ACFM Chair;Pelagic Freezer-Trawler
Full transcript