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The Uncertain Fate of Chindia

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Evan Hatteberg

on 26 April 2011

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Transcript of The Uncertain Fate of Chindia

By Shalendra D. Sharma The Uncertain Fate of Chindia Chindia The term was coined by Jairam Ramesh in 2005
It is based on the growing economic integration spurred by China and India's rapid growth.
While this integration provides a strong incentive for cooperation, Sharma belives that this is overly optimistic.
China has major economic ties to both Japan and Taiwan, but Beijing's relationship with them is extremely volatile. Hardware and Software The two way trade volume between China and India increased from $332 million in 1992 to $39 billion by the end of 2007.
There has also been a substantial increase in investment between the two countries in this time The growing trade has been attributed to China's diverse manufacturing industries and India's thriving IT industry. Called "hardware and software" by former Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji. Possible Trade Woes However, in the World Trade Organization India has filed antidumping cases against China and banned Food and Toy imports from China for safety reasons.
Joining the WTO required China to reduce tariffs on agricultural and industrial goods which has likely opened the door for India to export grain to China.
At the same time India stands to lose a substantial portion of its important textile exports due to smaller production scales than China.
There is also heated contention within India over China's undervalued currency. The Energy Race Do you think trade between China and India will serve to encourage compromise between China and India or will it be another issue of contention? India imports 75% of its energy and China imports 40%. This has driven both countries to attempt to lock down potential sources of fossil fuels.
This has lead to intense competition between the two countries, but in 2006 they signed a cooperation agreement aimed a prevent the two countries from bidding against each other. Boundary Issues The 2,500-mile boundary between China and India has long been a source of contention between the two nations.
1962 border war. Providing sanctuary to the Dalai Lama
In 2008 India and China signed an agreement that officially made the region of Sikkim part of India and implimented confidence building measures along the line of actual control. Where is the Trust At the root of conflict between China and India is a lack of trust.
Neither country trusts the other's intentions, and both see border disputes as a lack of respect from the other.
India sees China's support of Pakistan as the key behind Pakistans intransigence.
China sees India as a primary south Asian power and wants to make sure that Pakistan remains a millitary counter balance. Do you think China and India will be able to move past their distrust for each other? Rivals in Myanmar China's "string of pearls" strategy to build naval bases from Southeast Asia upsets India, and Beijing's stong ties with Myanmar are particulary worrisome because India fears China may one day challenge its dominance of the Indian ocean.
China on the other hand has long had an amiable relationship with Myanmar and sees India's attempts to increase its presence there as a challenge.
Both seek to obtain the natural resources at the exclusion of the other which is a serious potential source of conflict. Regional Competition Both China and India are constantly working to expand their influence in Southeast Asia.
India has worked to improve its relations with the Islamic world beyond Pakistan.
China's work to work with ASEAN has proven useful in expanding China's ability to work multilaturally.
China has worked to make use of its investments and business opportunities to expand its soft power.
Beijing has also deployed a new generation of well trained diplomats who have helped to portray a favorable image of China in Southeast Asia which India has recognised as a significant competitor for regional influence. Obstacles Ahead Sino-Indian relations have improved significantly over the past decade and both sides have worked to alleviate each other's concerns.
Both fear the other's long term ambitions for Southeast Asia.
China sees India's rapid rise and growing relationship with the United States as an unwelcome complication for its plans for the region.
India must also prepare to deal with the vast power that a risen China will wield in Asia.
The numerous sources of potential conflict may prove too much for China and India to maintain amiable relations. Do you think there is a long term future for China and India working together?
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