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Climate futures 1

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Marco Amati

on 4 September 2013

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Transcript of Climate futures 1

Climate Futures and development: planning in uncertainty
PLA4CFD/PLA3CFD
Early period of environmentalism 1960s:
- 'Solution to pollution is dilution'
- Extreme power of some chemical agents: DDT and CFCs
Studies in the 1970s that identified climate science as a problem (a by-product of nuclear testing and development)
By the late 1980s a noticeable effect on chemistry etc.
- 1988 Start of penumbral period
Denial in the US spread to other parts of the world
- Active denial and
- Passive denial
2012: Year without winter
2021: Year of perpetual summer

2012 Sea Level Rise Denial Bill (North Carolina) becomes model for US Stability and protection Act (2022)
By 2042 doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere
Increase of temperature by 4 deg C.
Social effects:
-Food rationing
- Water restrictions
- Mass migrations
- Major food riots in cities
Pact between US and Canada to allow resettlement to the north (same for EU)

Start of climate altering experiments
Cite as: T.A. BodenDOI 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2010
http://cdiac.ornl.gov
Climate change and the developed world: the laggards
Where are Australia's emissions coming from?
Climate change and the developing world
Shouldn't a developed country profile look like this if we have a chance of turning things around?
Observations about our climate/planet sinks
Observations about actual climate change
Modelling climate change impacts
What planners should know about climate change (2011)
- Understanding the IPCC process X
- Some of the important terms (e.g. mitigation and adaptation) - OK
- Understanding the implications of sea-level rise and changing weather on land use, specifically:
The risks associated with certain kinds development
What can be done about these risks - OK
But what else?
Sensitivity: The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate related stimuli. Climate-related stimuli encompass all the elements of climate change, including mean climate characteristics, climate variability, and the frequency and magnitude of extremes. IPCC 2001 (a)
Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extreme) moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. IPCC 2001 (a)
Vulnerability: the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. IPCC 2001 (a)
Risk: A concept used to describe the likelihood of harmful consequences, arising from the interaction of hazards, community and the environment. (Zamecka & Buchanan 1999)
Hazard: A situation of condition with potential for loss or harm to the community or environment. (Zamecka & Buchanan 1999)
Reinsurance: Insurance for insurers, like insurance, the basic function of reinsurance is to spread risks, ie part of the liability accepted by an insurer is transferred to the reinsurance company (Leigh et al 1998:82).
Useful terms for planners to know
Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation is...
human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases
Adaptation is...
adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climactic stimuli or their effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities
Both have the same aim: reducing the undesirable consequences of CC
How to make mitaption work
(Swart and Raes, 2007):
- Avoid trade offs between the two (e.g. urban density)
- Identify synergies between the two
- Enhance both simultaneously and put this capacity into action particularly in developed countries
- Build institutional links between the two
- Mainstream climate policies into sustainable development policies at all levels of governance
References:


CSIRO, Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 2007. Climate change in Australia: technical report 2007. CSIRO. 148 pp.
Dodson and Sipe (2006) Shocking the Suburbs:Urban location, housing debt and oil vulnerability in the Australian City
Future Australian climate scenarios By Penny Whetton (2006, CSIRO pub)
R Swart, F Raes - Climate policy, 2007
Vulnerability Assessment for Mortgage, Petrol and Inflation Risks and Expenditure (VAMPIRE) index
Today's agenda
10 - Start/intro
10.30 Climate change and planning
11.30 Break
11.45 Discussion about assessments
12.30 Lunch
1.30 - Workshop on readings
3.00 Questions and conclusions
3.30 end
Exercise 1:
What are the critical issues to arise from the readings?

Is there a distinction between technological solutions and real change?

(Based on the video) Can an ecological modernisation hypothesis work to solve climate change?
Exercise 2:
How would you plan for resilience in your own community?

(e.g Consider localised impacts and opportunity at community level)

Risk and precaution - how can these be factored into a model for strategy and development?

Report back on these and identify 4-6 further issues for planning to address with climate change
Climate Futures and development: planning in uncertainty
PLA4CFD/PLA3CFD
Assessing Impact and Adaptation Capacity: Risk and Uncertainty in Planning Practice
Some obvious truths:
- Climate change will not affect all areas and groups equally

- Groups and areas will have different capacities to respond

- Climate change will play out differently (Consider gradual change as opposed to extreme events.
Examples?
- Therefore the risks are different for different areas and groups and so is their vulnerability

The objective of today's lecture and workshop will be to get you to think about climate change risks in these terms and to understand how or what can be mitigated against.
At the city scale there are five types of climate impact that are thought to be particularly significant (Hunt and Watkiss, 2011: 15):
- Sea level rise on coastal cities (including storm surges)
- Extreme events (e.g. wind storms, floods, heat extremes and drought)
- Health
- Energy use
- Water availability and quality
Cities at risk:

Mexico City:
A more 'intense' hydrological cycle reduced precipitation by 20% increased temperature.
Relies on aquifers for most of the freshwater

Quito:
Also affected by water - upstream effects from glacier melt, sedimentation of waterways, land use modification (deforestation), and conflicts over water use

New York:
600 miles of coastline. Densely populated. One of top ten cities exposed to climate change worldwide. Second only to Miami in assets exposed to climate change.

Toronto: Exposed to extreme heat, floods, drought, new insect pests and vector borne diseases.
Risk and development

Risk and scale

Risk and location

Risk of over adapting
Scenarios for OECD-A (includes OECD countries in Oceania)
IS92 - E
IS92 - C
Risk management as seen through the IPCC
First exercise taken in 1990 to establish whether GHG emissions pose a significant danger and warrant further investigation
Second exercise (1995) to look at the level of risk in a future where CC risks are not being actively managed. Involved the development of scenarios (IS92a-f and SRES families).
Third exercise (2001) to examine how to manage risk through mitigation and adaptation. First suggests the need for adaptation. Looks at vulnerability.
Fourth exercise (2007) further work on mitigation and adaptation. In particular the integration with existing understandings of sustainability
Fifth exercise (ongoing). Examines specific issues like food. Looks at transformation pathways e.g. the role of technology
Scenario thinking exercise
Not a prediction - but a plausible explanation of how event unfold over time
Normative, exploratory, or predictive narratives and a path to meet them
Linear pathways or systems and their complex interactions.
"Define a normative state in the future and diagnose
how to achieve that state over time" (Jones, 2010)
Possible, probable, preferable future
Backcasting

Scenarios are...
Considerations
Time frame
Events: duration, intensity, extent etc.
Knowledge skills and resources
Adopt, adapt, reject, tolerate: socio-cultural behaviours
and change.

The system you are analysing (Moreno and Becken 2009) (e.g. tourism)
The attribute of concern (e.g. a coral reef)
The hazard or potential event that might affect the vulnerability
The sphere - distinguishing internal and external

In addition
Choose a setting that you want to come up with a scenario for.

1. Assess the vulnerabilities
2. Discuss a scenario through which it can adapt.

The calculus of risk: predictable security in the face of an open future (Beck)
Risks presume industrial decisions and consideration of utility - they have a peaceful origin
Risks have taken over the need for a moral or ethical basis for decision making
Where the security pact is violated wholesale the whole system is at stake
An introduction to risk
Understanding mitigative and adaptive capacity
Climate Futures and development: planning in uncertainty
PLA4CFD/PLA3CFD
Communities resilience and the capacity(ies) to act
In the wake of Katrina and Rita (2005) came a series of events that were also without parallel. Including:
- Credible accusations of dereliction even financial improprieties on the part of the Red Cross and the Humane Society. FEMA workers accused of bribery
- Foreign aid to the US and then mishandled. UAE was the leader. Cuba's offer ignored
- Pets taking centre stage. People refused evacuation when they were told they couldn't take pets with them. The Humane Society sponsor a 'no pets left behind campaign' and a bill through congress "Pets Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act"
- An ephemeral but mandated moratorium on mortgage foreclosures and evictions - an intervention in the housing market unheard of since the Depression
- Absentee voting problems
- Insurance companies flee the coast. The Federal flood insurance program goes into the red to the tune of $23 billion
- The US is unable to send in the army because of the Iraq war
- Police officers walk away from their jobs prioritising their families
- Incidents of racism/exclusion/NIMBY-ism that still has the power to shock: On August 31 2005, police in a West Bank city of Gretna blocked a bridge from New Orleans preventing a large number of African American evacuees from escaping the deluged city.
(Hartman and Squires, 2013)
Online discussion: summary
1. What institutional/political structures mitigate against climate change? 0 posts
2. Matching the effects on the developing world with the duties of the developed world. 15 posts
3. The effects of physical impacts on culture. 1 post
4. How cultural values adapt to physical impacts. 1 post
5. Nuclear vs. fossil fuels vs. renewables. 2 posts
6. Who profits from misinformation? 8 posts
7. How to make climate change a 'fact' 20 posts
8. What technological breakthrough will make a difference? 8 posts
9. How does CC contribute to poverty? 10 posts
10. What is the capacity of cities to deal with CC? 7 posts
11. Overpopulation and mass-migration 12 posts



Readings
Ghana:
US:
Nature Climate Change 3, 802–806 (2013) doi:10.1038/nclimate1979
"[A]s New Yorkers, we cannot and will not abandon our waterfront. It’s one of our greatest assets. We must protect it, not retreat from it." Michael Bloomberg, June 2013

"There is often an emotional need, as people return and rebuild, to deny the ‘naturalness' and therefore the inevitable recurrence of the event. Black Saturday, we quickly reassured ourselves, was ‘unique', ‘unprecedented', ‘unnatural' - and it was a ‘disaster'. We must never let it happen again! Culture can - and will - triumph over nature." Tom Griffiths Griffiths Review "The Language of Catastrophe" 35, 2012
Halsnaes and Laursen (2009) Climate Change Vulnerability: A new threat to poverty alleviation in Developing Countries Chapter 7
- One of the 'wealthier' poor countries
- Agriculture highly differentiated between the north and south. North is poorer and more vulnerable. Work there to concentrate resources and ensure sustainable land practices.
- Climate proofing of infrastructure.
1. Pittock and Jones
2. Adger
3. Heltberg et al.
3. Akter and Bennett
- What will be the trigger point?
- How will a feedback loop be created?
A moral issue for our times
An example of how the developed world 'structures' poverty in the developing world
House of cards versus a jigsaw puzzle
Nature Climate Change 2, 243–247 (2012) doi:10.1038/nclimate1378
Full transcript