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NSF talk - Conflict Studies 2.0

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christian davenport

on 10 February 2017

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Transcript of NSF talk - Conflict Studies 2.0

Conflict Studies 2.0
2000-Present
Conflict Studies 1.0
1960s-1990s
Northern
Ireland
Research
Initiative (NIRI)
Examples
Conflict Studies 2.0
Other Examples
Where Research on Political Conflict and Violence Goes Next
Christian Davenport
Topic: Negative Sanctions (frequency)
Explanation: structural
Method: 2sls; PCTS
Source: newspapers (WHPSI)
Topic: Covert Repression (frequency)
Explanation: structural, demographic
Method: Poisson
Source: newspapers (BPP, NYT, OT, BB)
Topic: Human Rights Violation (category)
Explanation: Structural, Demographic, Economic, Behavioral
Method: PCTS, OLOGIT
Source: human rights ngos (PTS)
Topic: Protest Policing (category)
Explanation: Organizational, Behavioral, Psychological
Method: logit
Source: newspapers (DCA)
Topic: Genocide (onset, termination)
Explanation: Structural, Demographic, Behavioral
Method: Cox proportional hazard
Source: newspapers, reports? (SF/PITF)
Outline:
Conflict Studies beta (1930-40s)
people
questions
approach
findings
problems
Conflict Studies 1.0 (1960s-1990s)
Conflict Studies 1.4 (1990-2000s)
Conflict Studies 2.0 (2000-present)
Examples
Challenges
Next Steps
PPP: Anti-Nato/G8
Also
internet scrape of all tweets, news articles, tv and blogs
raw feed from news programs
police press releases
police records (FOIA pending)
court records (aquiring)
Conflict Studies
The Beta Version, 1930s-1940s
The Talk
Conflict Studies 1.4 (1990s-2000s) - More but better
people:
Sorokin, Wright
questions:
Lethality, Scope, Intensity
orientation:
structural
approach:
large n at global/civilization
findings:
politics, economics and demography matter

people:
Eckstein, Tilly, Gurr, Russett, Feirabends, Nesvold, Hibbs, Tanter, McCarthy & Zald, Jenkins, Muller, Seligson
questions:
Type, Frequency, Lethality
orientation:
structural [as well as organizational & psychological] arguments
approach:
large n [but some single country]
findings:
politics, economics, demography matter
people:
[Tilly], Tarrow, [Gurr], Mason, Collier & Hoeffler, Licklider, Regan, Fearon & Laitin, Sambanis, Hegre, Sandler, Poe & Tate, Me, Mitchell & McCormick, Moore, Wallensteen, Gates, Cingranelli & Richards, Krain, Wood, Me & collaborators (e.g., Armstrong & Nordas), Melander, Gleditsch, Nordas, Cohen, Demeritt, Conrad, Lacina, Cunninghams, Hendrix & Saleyan, Ritter, Fariss, Hill & Jones
questions:
Type, Onset, Lethality, Duration
orientation:
structural arguments [with some organizational &/or individual roots]
approach:
large n
findings:
politics, economics, demography matter
some more than others and for some forms of conflict more than others
people:
Weinstein, Kalyvas, Verwimp, Cunningham (Soc), Straus, Shapiro, Staniland, McDoom, Verpoorten, Eck, Me
questions:
Type, Onset, Frequency, Lethality
orientation:
[organizational, psychological arguments]*structural arguments
approach:
[subnational/group/individual]*structural
findings:
politics, economics, demography matter filtered through organizational, psychological, dynamic factors
Components of
Political Conflict
mutual incompatibility over some issue concerning political realm
i.e., governance, public policy or some condition believed to be domain of government
one actor involves state
resort to violence possible (actors armed)
Improvements
New area of research created!!!
New methods: e.g., content analysis, correlations
Limitations
few forms examined
very little data
methods not quite up to task
Improvements
Relatively more data available
New sources: newspapers
Methodological innovations: regression, factor analysis
More attention given to organizations but largely isolated in Sociology - McCarthy & Zald, & Klandermans as well as Opp
Limitations
Few topics examined (e.g., war, civil war/internal war, protest, coercive capacity)
Media bias (e.g., large, violent, urban)
Improvements
some better data (more countries/years)
some new data (NGOs; more foreign & local news sources)
methodological innovations: PCTS, machine reading of more/newer sources
many topics being explored:
e.g., civil war, armed conflict, terrorism, protest, repression/human rights, counter-terrorism, counter-insurgency, protest policing, genocide, one-sided violence, leadership decapitation, assassination
increasingly more attention given to government behavior (but still lagging)
Limitations
recurrent puzzles with no headway
mechanisms poorly examined & understood
behavioral equivalence highlighted; variation within units being discussed
Our world is filled with political conflict and has been for some time...
Interest has resulted in tremendous amount of effort to systematically evaluate what has transpired as well as why -
Conflict (& Peace) Studies
significant insights & improvements have been accomplished, BUT...
effort has not been evenly distributed across topic areas
insights have been limited and, indeed, the field is currently at a crossroad
Significant Impacts
lost millions if not billions of human lives
unclear impact on human psyche
unclear amounts of money (as lost income, repair for damages)
unclear impact on political & economic institutions

McAdam, Tolnay and Beck, Soule, Earl
Led to fundamental re-thinking of everything that we have done and what we think we know...
Full transcript