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2015 EM and Risk

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Judson Freed

on 22 January 2017

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Transcript of 2015 EM and Risk

Judson Freed
Emergency Management as
Risk Management Practice

An undertaking (noun or verb) of some scope, complication, and risk requiring systematic and purposeful activity and a willingnes to undertake new ventures
The HLS enterprise consists of those governmental agencies, activities, and departments, and such non-governmental organizations, that are specifically, purposefully, and systematically engaged jointly in the difficult tasks of ensuring the protection of processes of the American nation within our borders.
The Solutions
Homeland Security Enterprise
Variation from the expected outcome over time
Stock and Flow
Perception of “dread”
Ratio of Standard Dev to the Mean
Communities are
Complex Adaptive Systems
Impact to a part impacts the whole
Infrastructure that is critical to business is
Infrastructure critical to tax-base, is
Infrastructure critical to community, is
Infrastructure critical to responders, is
Infrastructure critical to employees, etc.
Need to factor short-term costs and long-term risk into cost/benefit analysis (Chertoff, 2009)
Gas Stations
Minneapolis Schools' Air Conditioning vs Opening Before Labor Day
Impact to Community Systems
I have never disdained, even for a trifling stake, to throw the bloody die with my gallant comrades; and shall I hesitate now, when all that is most precious in life is set upon the cast? - (Goethe, Egmont, Act 2, Scene 2)
21st Century Risk
ERM is the discipline by which an organization in any industry assesses, controls, exploits, finances, and monitors risk from all sources for the purpose of increasing the organization’s short- and long-term value to its stakeholders
To achieve security there is a trade off of some values in favor of others.
Keeney’s “Error 1”
Govts care about this but fail to adequately understand the consequences of their actions by choosing the easier or less expensive
Sandpiles and SOC
What does the death of an elephant reveal about the value of an air-raid shelter?
- Bernstein, 1998
Prospect Theory
People use mental shortcuts and neglect actual probability of a threat in favor of an “emotional” response to the image or feelings of a prospective threat – only using probability of a threat if other information is missing!
Prospect Theory
21st Century Community Risk
Most “risk management” is actually “vulnerability management”

A company has an infinite amount of vulnerabilities, but finite resources available to deal with them
-Shon Harris
Operating in a global environment
Information sharing is essential
Brings new security risks
Access to the company network for employees, suppliers, contractors and clients
Makes a company far more vulnerable to theft, sabotage and information system attacks.
Information & Intellectual Property Risk
Complex adaptive systems?
What about….
Need for Balance
Risk = probability that a particular attempted attack will succeed against a particular target or class of targets. It is usually measured against some set of standards, such as availability/predictability, accessibility, countermeasures in place, and target hardness
Federal World!
Consequence = the expected worst case or worst reasonable adverse impact of a successful terrorist attack
Federal World!
Threat = a specific type of attack that will be initiated against a particular target or class of targets
Federal World!
Focus on worst case scenarios
Ranking that add vulnerability and consequence w/o regard to probability
Relative risk only
Inaccurate value of CI/KR
Inflated assessment of capacity (e.g. 600 lb bomb)
- Mueller & Stewart 2011
Simplistic Risk Models and Probability Neglect
“Substitutes imagination for thinking, speculation for risk analysis, and fear for reason. It fosters powerlessness and vulnerability and magnifies social paralysis. And it makes us more vulnerable to the effects of terrorism"(Schneier, 2010).
Simplistic Risk Models and Probability Neglect
“Most fundamentally, owners, designers and contractors now will be held to a higher standard of care in performing their work…”

“…Because such acts now are foreseeable, developers, designers and contractors arguably have a duty to take the possibility of terrorist attacks into consideration when designing new projects. Similarly, owners of existing facilities may have a duty to evaluate the terrorist threat to their facilities and take appropriate measures to counter those threats.”
Source: START National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland. from: http://www.start.umd.edu/start/
>1900 successful attacks since 1970
2 Days later, another attack attempt!

Fed support and planning based on AQ and Attack
Rand Corp, quoted in Time .com 12/23/09; http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1949329,00.htmlaccessed 09/14/10

Mueller, J. (ed). Terrorism Since 9/11: The American Cases. Ohio State University. June 2012
12 of these in 2009
>50 attacks in the United States since 9/11
US Terrorism
"Terrorism carries no moral or ethical connotations. It is simply the definition of a particular type of coercion... It is up to animal rights spokespersons either to dismiss the terrorist label as propaganda or make it a badge to be proud of wearing."
Understanding 21st Century Risk
Understanding 21st Century Risk
New Expectations and Realities
Understanding Modern Terrorism
Managing Evidence
Reputation, Litigation and Entitlement
The Whole World Watches
Mapping Assets As Well As Hazards
Exercise and Drill
Shelter In Place Decision
Source: Mcarthy, D. & Schaefer, J. Tornado trends over the past thirty years. Retrieved from www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/mccarthy/tor30yrs.pdf
>45,000 tornadoes1970-2002
2011 Report on Terrorism, United States National Counter Terrorism Center, March, 2012
Attacks against Western Hemisphere UP >40%
Most were AQ and AQ-affilliate. BUT, more than 2,000 deaths by Anarchist/Secular/Right Wing groups
>10,000 terrorist attacks occurred in various countries during 2011

45,000 Victims >12,500 Deaths
Global Terrorism
DeVan, William, The Impact of Homeland Security on the Construction Industry, Construction Weblinks.com, Industry Bulletins 6/23/2003
Kevin Beedy, Animal Rights “Activist” “The Politics of Animal Rights,” Animals’ Agenda, March 1990, p. 17-21
(>700 days with at least one fatality)
In early 2001 FEMA noted the three likeliest, most catastrophic disasters facing this country:
A terrorist attack in New York City √
A catastrophic earthquake in San Francisco
A hurricane and levee break in New Orleans √
FEMA’s Top Three…
Initially try and do what they did before
Eventually begin to change as new relationships form to “recover”
Adapt = Survive
Community Response to “Disaster”
Immediately Following
Ripple Effects
Ripple Reverberations

Alesch, Arendt, Holly – “Managing for Long-Term Community Recovery in the Aftermath of Disaster”
Consequences Have Consequences
Effect Not Cause
Hazard Identification
Reality Check
All Hazards Planning
Community Risks Are Exacerbated
BUT: Is there ANY consequence to an UNSUCCESSFUL attack?
Are there consequences to non-attack hazards?
Complex Adaptive Systems - LEVELS of impact
Exposure - Degree, Duration, Extension
A COMPLEX SYSTEM can continue uninterrupted, despite the intrinsic existence of vulnerabilities as long as the system is not EXPOSED to the threat in a critical manner or critical amount of time (e.g. a bullet)
Manage the Risk
National Scale Event?
Confidence Loss
Complex Systems at Risk
Israel Bomb vs London Bomb vs Boston Bomb
Always Factor In EXPOSURE!
Assets and Operations
Community Risk
Strategic Risks
Long-term Impact
Governmental Function Impact
Operational Risks
Economic Risks
Hazard Risk
ALL in the public eye
Regulatory Change Likely
Taxbase Impact
Impact to overall economy
CAS ERM Committee 2003
Tverskey & Kahneman, 1974
Unpredictability of Failure
Probability Neglect
Vulnerability = mechanisms by which the attack can negatively impact the asset
Federal World!
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