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WP 6.2: Agent-based modeling for integrated analysis of the

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Grace Villamor

on 26 September 2013

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Transcript of WP 6.2: Agent-based modeling for integrated analysis of the

WP 6.2: Agent-based modeling for integrated analysis of the Social-Ecological System at watershed scale
Aims and objectives
To identify resilient and adaptive/adapted land-use systems under different policies, variable climate, and development scenarios
To develop an agent-based model framework that:
holds the level of detailedness is at a possible minimum,
rigorously design human agents on the basis of social-science insight, and
constrains the model by expert-based macro-scale scenarios.

Next steps
Develop decision algorithm
Model calibration (6-months at ZEF)
Scenario building will be done through focus group discussions
LUDAS framework using Netlogo platform
Validation will be done using RPG/participatory games results and expert-opinion
Grace B. Villamor,
Center for Development Research,
University of Bonn

By working with students under the WASCAL Graduate Program/ ZEF junior researchers

Five doctoral and 1 master students are currently involved in WP 6.2

Burkina Faso
Developing actor-based nutrient cycle model for support-building resilience of smallholder agro-ecosystems to climatic changes in Black Volta sub-basin (Thiombiano Boundia - Tutor: Quang Bao Le)
Potential of Shea tree (Vitillaria paradoxa C.F. Gaertn.) for carbon sequestration in parkland agroforestry systems of southern Mali
(Sanago Kapoury, WASCAL CC and biodiversity)
Socio-ecological dynamics of Shea agroforests under climate variability in Parkland (Aleza Koutchoukalo, WASCAL CC and Agriculture)

Gender and land-use decision-making in response to climate variability in Dassari watershed (Materi) (Afiavi Dagbeto, WASCAL CC and land use

Modeling the impacts of and adaptation strategies to climate change in the landscapes of Vea Catchment (Badmos Biola, WASCAL adapted land use)

Modeling the impacts of gender differences and land tenure dynamics in the resilience of Vea Catchment (Michael Mensah, WASCAL adapted land use)

Research topics by country
Common conceptual approach
The "grazing game"
To understand the behavior of the farmers under rainfall variability, where desertification process is simulated.
9 replications have been conducted out of the 20 games
User-guide is work in progress
A new role-playing game (RPG): gender
to develop a new version which will combine the gendered-land use rpg based on the Indonesian case and the grazing game

Methods in capturing behavior and decision making
Expected outputs
Human agent behavior and decision making, and its possible impacts on the landscape or watershed level
Goods and ecosystem service tradeoffs from different policy interventions (fertilizer subsidies, migration, etc)
Modified from Villamor et al. 2013
ES - LUDAS framework
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