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resilient auckland

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christopher choa

on 26 October 2016

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Transcript of resilient auckland

resilient
source: Parag Khanna
europe usa
(extreme) sharing
time cars parked
land supply
as percentage
2016: 30 cities

...2030:
41 cities
> 10 million
21st century Hanseatic League
new silk road

45%
global trade

3000
jobs
by value
per destination
city regions / china
source: Parag Khanna
FTZ
Øresund Bridge
thames valley trade clusters
the 'Squaire'
driverless
cars unused 96% of time
emerging business models

urban regeneration...
sharing economy
MARKET SATURATION
source: AECOM
source: AECOM
source: wikimedia
...transformation of products into services
separation
aggregation
separation
aggregation
iPhone supply chain
land area devoted to streets and parking
30%-50%
houston
context

futures

demographics environment city


globalization
urbanization

1970
3.7 billion
2010
6.9 billion
2050
9.7 billion
36% urban



50% urban



70% urban
Source: OECD Development Centre
global middle class consumption
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2016
34%
70%
2016: 30 cities

...2030:
41 cities
mega city
> 10 million
source: Wittgenstein Centre
migration flows
north america
africa
europe
fmr soviet union
south asia
west asia
east asia
southeast asia
latin america
oceana
source: Parag Khanna / Connectography
4 degrees celsius warmer...
billions...
climate change
technology city
living longer, differing expectations
three four 5 generations in the workplace
fourth industrial revolution
rise of sharing economy
sharing economy
source: Nielsen (2013)
30%-50%
europe usa
shift to sharing

land supply!
driverless
land area devoted to streets and parking
cars unused 96% of time
emerging business models

extreme
1996-2001 1996-2006 1996-2013
population density increase
Auckland

Sydney

London

Singapore

Dubai

Brisbane

Melbourne

New York

Vancouver
source: demographia
residential land values
home price vs. income
commute times
median multiple: 2015 / 3rd quarter
home price vs. income
mobility / congestion
100 ha
city area: 560 skm -
street area: 168 skm
parking: 30 skm (300,000 Ha)
size matters...
20%
source: steelcase
beginning now...
pittsburgh
(uber)





singapore
(taxi)
...but also:
San Francisco, CA
Austin, TX
Kirkland, WA
Boston, MA

London
Beijing
Helsinki
Tokyo
today
up
monocentric
south
future
out
polycentric
fringes
or...
1
2
3
4
5
6
identity


density


assets


environment


connectivity


governance
build on '
Liveable
'
anticipate demographics
get
(a lot)
bigger
'
propinquity
'
up and out
...more than 2,600 res/km2...
source: Lattitude 42
MARKET DEMAND
sharing economy
MARKET SATURATION
auckland:
extreme
mixed-use
public
realm
intensive
agriculture
'
magic
' hour
specialise
growing inequality
workforce disruption
new vulnerabilites
get ready...
comparative advantages
increasing transparency
emerging creativity

but also...
technology is only part of this...
Auckland:
1.45 million people
560 km2 (built-up area)

600 people/skm
2,600 people/skm
17,300 people/skm
christopher.choa@aecom.com
sources: BIS; Bloomberg; CREA; Halifax; Japan REI; OECD; Quotable Value; RP Data-Rismark; Thompson Reuters; UN; national sources
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
ratio:
source: economicshelp.org
(London / UK)
home price vs. income
reinvention
fast-changing environment
understand what we are regulating.
collaborate closely with business and civil society.

agile
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