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The Future for Aquatic and Leisure Facilities

A presentation to the ARV conference August 26th 2010

Paul Higgins

on 27 August 2010

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Transcript of The Future for Aquatic and Leisure Facilities

The Future I Will be Wrong Why We Cannot
Predict the Future What we can do! So what Does
That Look Like? OLDER More Connected More Health
Conscious So what does that
mean to you? The Future is already here
it is just unevenly distributed William Gibson ClockTurned Back on Aging Muscles, Researchers Claim More Demand for
Low Impact Exercise Harnessing
the Social A Challenge Brother Bada Budan Lots More People The Standard
View A more radical
view Overall Lots More
Customers But Fitter source: NY Daily News http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=view&id=156609 http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=view&id=457944 http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=view&id=1254880 Source: BBC Source: Impact Lab Source: LiveScience Source: The Age http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=view&id=1181363 http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=view&id=50422 http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=view&id=995748 To Finish Images www.emergentfutures.com http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=view&id=591716 http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=view&id=1066755 http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=view&id=50422 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1022222 I always tell clients if they want a vision of what the future is in 10 or 20 years time the only certain thing is that it will be wrong. That does not mean that looking at what the future might hold is not important, just that people should not become fixated on a single or a certain future. This is the best long term forecasting study I have ever seen. It summarises three five year studies where forecasts where held to account. To summarise the result of the Tetlock forecasting study : chimps throwing darts at random answers are marginally less accurate than humans! If prediction and forecasting are almost impossible but we still have to act in the real world then what can we do to practically think about the future? We can look at trends More importantly we can look for the underlying drivers of the trends because trends are just historical data and when they change is when we are most at danger of missing change that is a serious risk to our organisations. Most importantly we need to understand how our brains work and how they cause us to miss important signposts of change. While the general view is that we are getting older the reality is that there will be far more people in the 15-64 range in Australia in the future as well Social networking is a big opportunity in the future But it is also a threat - group buying systems are springing up and they can bring business but also take it away healthy life extension technologies are coming and there are strong indications that we will be able to live far longer with healthier bodies using them even if actual life expectancy does not go up dramatically How do you create a business like this one that has no signage, does little or no marketing, has a difficult to remember name but is always busy because it produces a great product that people tell other people about? We use royalty free images for our presentations. The links to the images are contained in the presentation. Please support the people who provide these images if you can You can get more articles and presentations at our website (http://www.emergentfutures.com ) and you can sign up to our free newsletter which contains interesting things that are emerging and business tips you can use today. Archives are available in the download section
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