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International Politics of the Middle East & North Africa Spring 2017

Concept map, presentations etc.
by

Ed Webb

on 14 April 2017

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Transcript of International Politics of the Middle East & North Africa Spring 2017

Return
Globalization
photo credit Nasa / Goddard Space Flight Center / Reto Stöckli
Theoretical Approaches
Us - who we are, where we are, how we interact with international politics
Them - who they are, where they are, how they interact with international politics
The Universal and the Particular
Borders, States, Geopolitics
Identities, Ideologies, Culture
Institutions, Law
Resources
Four Themes
(Neo-)Realism
Constructivism
(Neo-)Liberalism
Area Studies
Orientalism
Geography: natural & social sciences
Sub-regions
https://maps.google.com/maps?ftr=earth.promo&hl=en
Place
Research Paper
Blogs
Short assignments & midterm
Writing
Start Now!
Borders, States,
Geopolitics
Identities,
Ideologies,
Culture
Institutions
Resources
https://lms.dickinson.edu/mod/page/view.php?id=665554
http://www.worldmapper.org/index.html
http://rfmcdpei.livejournal.com/2585494.html
(Nation-)States
Conflict & Cooperation
IR as a field of study
International System
George Orwell is
Watching You!
19th Century
Ottomans in European State System
Iran between Britain & Russia
Mehmet Ali's Egypt
French North Africa
Debt!
And the rise of nationalisms
Defensive Modernization
“It soon became impossible to wonder merely, as in the days of Mohammad Ali, ‘How can we modernise ourselves?’ More complicated questions inevitably arose: ‘How can we modernise ourselves without losing our identity?’”
Amin Maalouf
Defensive Modernization?
Attempted growth of central power, through military and bureaucracy, reversing earlier trends
Penetration of global capital, through capitulations (1838-), trade, investment
Land reform dispossesses some of traditional rights, creates landowners, marketized relationships (Timars abolished 1831)
Tax reform partially successful, but debt...
General trends
Subsistence to commercial
Very price/market sensitive:
Cotton crashes after 1864
Fruit and grains more consistent, NB Jaffa oranges offering a 10% annual return on investment in 1870s-1880s
Foreign interference:
Example: British consular agents promote cotton growth
Dependency encouraged, not ISI or ELG
Agriculture
Global prices in late 19th century favor agricultural over industrial exports
Enacted reforms not always implemented, e.g. tax exemptions
International politics: Britain’s protection of its industrial hegemony
Lack of water power
Low population density, & small domestic market (total pop 26m)
Resistance, Luddism
Failure of industrialization
Selim III (1789-1807): Modernization starts with the military
Foreign instructors, French language
Nizam-i Jadid
Mahmut II(1808-1839): 1826 – Defeat of the Janissaries
Janissary-Derebey-Ulama coalition
Schools: War/Artillery/Engineering, Medicine
Modernizing Sultans
Abdülmecit ( 1839-1861): Gulhane and Hatt-i Himayun Decrees
Abdülaziz (1861-1876): the first sultan to travel to Europe and Egypt (other than as conqueror)
Abdülhamit II (1876-1909): first constitution, 1876; but modernizing despotism
Debt: bankruptcy 1876
Tanzimat Sultans
Mehmet Ali/Muhammad Ali Pasha
Albanian, Ottoman officer
Military reform
Impact of French occupation 1798-1801
Massacre of Mamluks, reconquest of Hijaz 1811
Peasant conscription
Educational and bureaucratic support
Industrialization – monopoly system
Land and tax reform
Empire building in Africa and Syria
Treaty of London 1841
Egypt: Mehmet Ali
Qajar central authority weaker than Safavids
autonomy of Shi`a ulama’
Tax-farming, abuses
Nepotism
No significant/successful reform program
Russian/British imperial and commercial penetration
Dependency: raw material exports (except carpets)
Concession competition stifles investment
19th century Iran
Protests December 1905-mid 1906
Bazaaris, some ulama, liberals
Shahs grant two Fundamental Laws
1908-9 counterrevolution crushed
Britain & Russia
1901 Oil concession: birth of BP
1907 ‘Spheres’ agreement
1911- occupation
Puppet ministers
Iranian Constitutionalism
Pan-Islam
Ottomanism
Pan-Turkism
Turkism
Arabism
Minority sects
Minority ethnicities
Identity Questions
http://wwi.lib.byu.edu/index.php/President_Wilson%27s_Fourteen_Points
Hussein-McMahon correspondence
Balfour declaration
Sykes-Picot agreement
Bolsheviks spill the beans
‘Perfidious Albion’
BRITAIN AND FRANCE
The Sharif Hussain and his sons
Faysal (Feisal)
T.E.Lawrence
Fall of Damascus
Arab Kingdom of Syria, 1920
ARAB REVOLT
V. A free, open-minded, and absolutely impartial adjustment of all colonial claims, based upon a strict observance of the principle that in determining all such questions of sovereignty the interests of the populations concerned must have equal weight with the equitable claims of the government whose title is to be determined.
XII. The Turkish portions of the present Ottoman Empire should be assured a secure sovereignty, but the other nationalities which are now under Turkish rule should be assured an undoubted security of life and an absolutely unmolested opportunity of an autonomous development, and the Dardanelles should be permanently opened as a free passage to the ships and commerce of all nations under international guarantees.
Peace Treaties
Sevres
the War of Independence
Lausanne
Mandates
Britain:
Transjordan/Palestine
Iraq (special case in Hussein-McMahon) & IPC
France:
Syria/Lebanon
POST-WAR ORDER
Origins of Zionism and early settlers
Great Power politics
Balfour Declaration
Mandate Palestine
1947-9
UN Partition Plan
Creation of Israel
Start of the refugee problem
ZIONISM AND ISRAEL
Radical Republic
Conservative State
Radical Republic
Radical Republic
Independent Republic
French-influenced Republic
British-influenced Kingdom
Client State
Mandate
Independent State
Ottoman Empire
ARE/UAR
Oil Sheikdoms
Ba’thist Syria
Ba’thist Iraq
Israel
Syria
Lebanon
Transjordan
Iraq
Kingdom of Egypt,
Trucial States
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Mandates
Turkish Republic
Ottoman Empire
Cold War
Discussion questions
Was MENA exceptional?
Did tails wag dogs?
Relative importance of geostrategic & ideological interests?
Truman Doctrine
British & French
exhaustion & withdrawal
Oil
Exports
Iran 1913
Iraq 1928
Bahrain 1932
KSA 1938
Kuwait 1946
Role unclear - fungible commodity
Did the Cold War impede MENA democratization or other development?
Since the Cold War
Grand narratives/theories versus 'intermestics'
What do we mean by "East" and "West"?
What is the nature of US relations with MENA?
What is the nature of European relations with MENA?
"US" and "Them" / Here and There
domination
hegemony
competition
balance
asymmetry
imperialism
interdependence
'traditional trio of US interests'
anti-communism
oil
Israel
Levels of analysis
domestic sources of policy
ideologies
'national interest'
Competing nationalisms in MENA
Global bipolarity
Individuals
Transnational networks
ARAMCO
OPEC
Oil Weapon
Truman & Zionism
1979
Camp David ~ Iran revolution ~ Grand Mosque militants ~ invasion of Afghanistan ~ Saddam Hussein
lobbies
Pax Americana
How do EU/Europe & US differ/complement/compete in priorities & interests?
Imperialism
Cold War
Post-Cold War
hopes among the Arabs and Iranians that Europe
might serve as a counterweight or tempering influence on the United States are complicated by perceptions that both are components of 'the West' and thus, in some senses, 'the other', which must be resisted if the indigenous states and peoples are to assert their own disctinctive identities and place in the world (Hollis in Fawcett, 332)
1956
1971
soft power
rule of law
institutions
economic interdependence
Ray Hinnebush (in Fawcett):
The incongruence of identity and material structures has produced a conflict-prone Middle East. Imperial boundary drawing, in frustrating identity, left behind states facing competition for the loyalties of their populations from both sub- and supra-state identities, and hence afflicted with legitimacy deficits. Irredentism was built into the fabric of the states system, reflected in multiple sites of chronic civil war and border conflict. The way identity was incorporated into the fabric of states produced two of the world's most war-prone states and many revisionist ones---until these were 'socialized' by systemic constraints. Finally, identity has motivated but material power structures frustrated efforts to create a regional security community.
the Middle East, along with Africa, has been and remains one of the most war-prone regions globally - Janice Gross Stein (Fawcett, 2nd ed., ch 11)
GWOT & Clash of Civilizations
Byman's taxonomy
attacking al-Q unilaterally
working with allies against al-Q
containment
defense
diversion
delegitimation
transforming 'breeding grounds'
Islamism
Sadowski cautions on researching Islamist movements:
Muslim societies tend to be at least as diverse as they are similar;
There is a large gap between Islamic doctrine and Muslim practice;
The aspirations of Muslims do not differ markedly from those of other cultures, although the means they deploy to pursue them may [this is an instance of the famous “fundamental attribution error” (Reed 1993)];
Despite the criticisms made during the Enlightenment, religion neither prevents people from behaving rationally nor prevents them from innovating;
The great struggles in which Muslims are caught up are structured by history but not determined by it. Their outcomes may still be uncertain.
Commenting on Blogs
Some sound advice from Jabiz Raisdana
https://twitter.com/intrepidteacher/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/intrepidflame/tags/blogging/
Regionalism
Why regionalism?
success of EU (peace, prosperity)
post-Cold War UN/global agenda (globalization, regional security)
But "inter-state cooperation ... has been fragile and institutional development limited" (Fawcett)
3 levels of insecurity: domestic, regional, international
Arab League
Baghdad Pact
Gulf Co-operation Council
Arab Maghreb Union
see Fawcett box 9.1 and 9.2 pp. 206, 212
"Foreign policies are shaped by national situations, values and perceptions of policy makers and global and regional environments. Systemic conditions provide opportunities of constraints to action and generate pressure that push or pull states in different directions" ~ Paul Noble in Fawcett, 2nd edition, 206
External powers
Global trends
Quest for power & security
Actions of strong states
Levels of interdependence
Institutional frameworks
Shared identities & values
core-periphery
identity
institutions/international regimes
interdependence
weak states, low levels of institionalism, external interference
Fawcett emphasizes:
Non-Realist approaches:
What size & shape is 'the region'?
Will democratization lead to deeper/more real regionalization?
Democratization
Global
Regional
National
Local
Individual
http://www.opendemocracy.net/volker-perthes/arab-revolts-in-year-two
socio-demographic
military
political Islam
regional geopolitics
http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/11/since_when_do_arab_states_care_about_rtp
A new norm, or cynical geopolitics?
RTP
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/how-the-arab-spring-keeps-israel-safe-7268
Weak economies and emerging democratic regimes are not the only factors that make Israel’s situation more secure than might be otherwise thought. During the Cold War, Israel had to contend with surrounding Arab states that were backed by the Soviet Union, which had nearly limitless resources to arm its proxies. In contrast, the only country today that approaches an outside power willing to fund the battle against Israel is Iran, and it is a poor substitute for the Soviets.
http://www1.umn.edu/humanrts/instree/arabcharter.html
Water
War
Dolatyar & Gray
water scarcity has not caused war
will it? No, and not because of virtual water, desalination or water pricing, but because water is too precious
therefore water could help with peace negotiations
"water rationality" - mutual vulnerability
International trade
Problem of food security
Energy, waste brine, vulnerable
Security problem: traditionalist (state-centered) v holist (global) analyses
Jordan
Litani
Tigris
Euphrates
GAP
1967
1982
Arabian Peninsula: Seeking Food Self-Sufficiency
Morrissette & Borer
Environmental security may yet cause war
Domestic delegitimation --> interstate conflict
Virtual water as conflict avoidance strategy
Oil producers depend on markets, imports: interdependence
Everybody needs annually ~1,100 m3 of
Rising Food Prices
Selby
political economy of development: water of marginal significance
late & superficial incorporation into capitalist world
feudal/tributary social relations
oil's effects on economies, states & societies
weak internal legitimacy
agriculture in decline as % of GDP
Local
conflicts
"oil can be used to make water, while water cannot be used to make oil" (345)
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/
Oil
Luciani
"Oil is essentially allocated through the market, not through power and appropriation"
BUT
concentration ... polarization
rentierism
outside powers pulled in
Seven Sisters
Table 5.2, p. 107, Luciani in Fawcett
Would GCC be one state without British interest in dividing oil producers?
"In recent years, oil has more frequently been used as a tool, rather than as an objective" Luciani
allocation states rather than production states
rent from rest of world
accrues
directly
to state
no representation without taxation
Power shift? Rise of GCC states, decline of older states
Israel/Palestine
Land &
People(s)
Resources
http://www.passia.org/palestine_facts/MAPS/0_pal_facts_MAPS.htm
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/gazastrip.html
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/israel.html
Arabs
Jews
Yael Zeruvabel ~ Recovered Roots (Chicago UP: 1995)
Global
Transnational
Inter-state
Domestic
Individual

Dominance
Reciprocity
Identity
Imperial norms
League of Nations
Balfour/Sykes-Picot/Hussein-McMahon
Nationalism
Arab & Zionist identities
(also pan-Islam)
Palestinian
(Ottomanism eclipsed)
Faisal
Jewish Agency
Jabotinsky/revisionists
Brit Shalom
HaShomer HaZair
Mandate - muddling through
Self-determination
aliyahs
Arab rebellions (esp 1936-9)
Orde Wingate
World Wars
LEHI/Stern Gang & Lord Moyne
Holocaust?
terrorism
Biltmore
brutalization
UNSCOP
Zionist unity
Terrorism
Refugees
Identities
Leadership
(nakba; contested reasons)
new state for European DPs; hostile environment for 'Oriental' Jews?
"Jewish state"
"Arab" incoherence
Palestinian nationalism
Aid
bottom page 105
## 4 Proclamation of Israel and 1st War

May 14 1948 proclamation doc 4.1
UNGA appoints Bernadotte as mediator.
Mid-June month-long truce. Israelis re-arm from Czechs et al.
Sept 16 B recommends partition:
> Negev for Arabs, Galilee for Israelis, Jerusalem partitioned
> Stern Gang assassinate B; Ben-Gurion dissolves Irgun & Stern, but no-one tried
> December 1 Transjordan ceasefire
> February 24 Bunche-negotiated armistice with Egypt; others follow
Israel occupies 75% of mandate Palestine.
Jordan annexes West Bank, including East Jerusalem.
Was 1956 a war about Palestine?
cycle of raids and reprisals (115)
waterways: Tiran; Suez Canal
colonialism (UK in decline)
Cold War (Baghdad Pact and Czechoslovakia arms deal 1955; Bandung & NAM)
Fedayeen
1967 war - why a turning point? (Ch 6)
Cold War
Arab Nationalism (Nasser/Baath)
Fatah
Russian mischief and miscalculation (142)
summary p 149
UNSCR 242 (p. 152)
Israel's interstate wars

1956
Causes?
About Palestinians?
About security?
About territory?
Outcomes
Empires old and new
1967
Causes?
About Palestinians?
About security?
About territory?
Outcomes
A special note on UNSCR 242
1973
Causes?
About Palestinians?
About security?
About territory?
Outcomes
First peace process - Camp David
1982
Causes?
About Palestinians?
About security?
About territory?
Outcomes
PLO to Tunis; Intifada
Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process (MEPP)
Context
End of Cold War
1990-1 Gulf War
Back channel diplomacy
Oslo
First face-to-face negs b/w Isr officials & PLO
Public affirmation
Madrid
Sponsorship of Quartet
Achievements
Oslo accords
Israel-Jordan peace treaty
Setbacks
Assassination of Rabin
Failure of talks at end of Clinton Presidency
Rightward drift in Israel politics (Sharon, Netanyahu, Yisrael Beiteinu)
Successes of Hamas, especially in Gaza
Where are we today?
“the closer the process comes to success, the more certain it is that lunatics on both sides will unleash their fury in every way possible to derail the process”
“In order to engineer a settlement of a conflict as protracted and severe as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the forces pushing toward agreement must be overwhelming and they must be strong on both sides”
“decades of American aid to Israel at the annual rate of three to five billion dollars, and virtually complete political protection against adverse United Nations Security Council resolutions, have shielded the Israeli polity from feeling the real costs of both grandiose ambition and decisions not to decide in its policies toward the occupied territories and the Palestinians.”
Initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and international conferences, are in contradiction to the principles of the Islamic Resistance Movement. Abusing any part of Palestine is abuse directed against part of religion. Nationalism of the Islamic Resistance Movement is part of its religion.
The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgement Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up. Neither a single Arab country nor all Arab countries, neither any king or president, nor all the kings and presidents, neither any organization nor all of them, be they Palestinian or Arab, possess the right to do that.
The Islamic Resistance Movement views seriously the defeat of the Crusaders at the hands of Salah ed-Din al-Ayyubi and the rescuing of Palestine from their hands, as well as the defeat of the Tatars at Ein Galot... The Movement draws lessons and examples from all this. The present Zionist onslaught has also been preceded by Crusading raids from the West and other Tatar raids from the East. Just as the Moslems faced those raids and planned fighting and defeating them, they should be able to confront the Zionist invasion and defeat it.
“the clarifying effect of unbearable pain”
“the Camp David II negotiations as by far the best failure we have ever had” – “peace based on the "two states for two peoples" formula”
“Begin, Shamir, and Netanyahu pursued failure as a strategic objective”
“Rabin, Peres, and Barak ensured failure by strategic error”
“in 1999 Barak changed his policy. He made proposals flawed in the details of their substance and presentation, yet representing a real basis for moving toward a two-state solution. He contributed to failure, not by strategic error but by tactical blunder”
Lustick
Three prongs:
“the prevention of foreign rule west of the Jordan River”
“understanding and mutual respect between Israelis and their Arab neighbors”
“peace treaties between Israel and the Arab countries”
Basis of claims:
“a document called the Bible”
Palestinians not a people (“Samarian-Judean-Gazan Arab people”)
Ze’ev Begin ~ “The Likud Vision for Israel at Peace” (Foreign Affairs 1991)
The Israeli Right (and their supporters)
Hamas (and their supporters)
Lustick’s argument
Blood & Fire?
Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement)
The Islamic Resistance Movement … strives to raise the banner of Allah over every inch of Palestine, for under the wing of Islam followers of all religions can coexist in security and safety where their lives, possessions and rights are concerned.
Official Slogan: “Allah is its target [goal?], the Prophet is its model, the Koran its constitution: Jihad is its path and death for the sake of Allah is the loftiest of its wishes.”
Where do we go from here?
Gulf
"Saddam Hussein's war decisions in 1980 and 1990 (and even his behavior in the lead-up to the 2003 war) and the alliance decisions of regional powers are best explained by leaders' concerns about their own hold on power domestically, and how regional events and regional rivals could affect their own security at home. They view threats primarily through the lens of regime security rather than more conventional balance of power considerations" (Gause 2010, 1).
power threats
ideological/identity threats

Regional Actors
External Powers
US from stability-seeking to revisionist power
EU, BRICs - who plays, for what stakes?

Oil
Barry Buzan: regional security complexes
KSA
Iraq
Iran
1974-
OPEC

1971 -----------------1991---------------2001-------->
Brits out
'oil shock'
Table 1, p.28
increasing US arms sales to Iran & KSA
arms race 1975-80
Iran-Iraq War ------------------->
Kurdish insurgency
Iran-backed KDP
Algiers Agreement 1975
1979 - Camp David & Iranian revolution leave Iraq as Arab 'strongman'
Iranian Revolution
End of US-Iran alliance
New global oil crisis, prices almost double
Precipitated Iran-Iraq war, 1980-88
Shi'i unrest
Exporting revolution?
Iran weaker militarily; more aggressive politically
July 16 1979 Saddam replaces Ahmad Hassan Al-Bakr as president of Iraq
Second oil shock 1978-80
most damaging blow to US interests in the region since WWII
Sept '80-summer '82 in Iranian territory
summer '82-end '86 mostly in Iraqi territory
1987-summer '88 Iraqi initiative
US tilt to Iraq
competing identities:
ethno-nationalism;
sectarianism;
civil or territorial nationalism
execution of Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr & sister April 1980
June 1981 Osirak -> end Soviet embargo
Iran-Contra
US forces directly engaged
chemical weapons
Anfal; Halabja; Chemical Ali
Vincennes
Cold War ends
Kuwait war
Implications/outcomes:
Why?
What?
Invasion August 1990. Iraq forces expelled in operations Desert Shield & Desert Storm. UN-backed US-led Coalition - no 'Arab solution' available. No pursuit to Baghdad or attempted regime change.
Global factors
Regional factors
Domestic factors
Individual factors
years of containment through sanctions, NFZs (SCR687; UNSCOM)
failure of uprisings and revenge (NB US does not support for fear of Iran)
inspections to dismantle WMD and missile programs
US military infrastructure in region, but not hegemony
Less obviously: Oslo, Madrid, Israel-Jordan treaty
paragraph mid-p.90 shows view from Baghdad
oil prices too low
Regional shuffling: Jordan, PLO, Yemen; Syria, Egypt, GCC, Turkey; Iran, Israel sit out.
NB divided US public & Congressional opinion
September 11, 2001 attacks
1996: Al-Qa'ida's "Declaration of Jihad against the Americans occupying the land of the two holy mosques" - shift from near to far enemy
1998: "World Islamic Front for Jihad Against the Jews and the Crusaders"
2003 US invasion of Iraq
Implications/outcomes:
Why?
What?
UNSCR1441
Feb 5, 2003: Powell presentation to UNSC links Iraq to al-Qa'ida, alleges continuing WMD program. Few convinced apart from US public.
March 21: shock & awe strikes begin
April 9: Baghdad secure; statue brought down
April 14: end of major attacks
May 1: "Mission Accomplished"
OHRA-->CPA
Regime collapse-->insurgency
Sectarianism
Winners: Kurds, some Shi'ites, Iran, oil companies
June 2004 Transitional Government
October 2005 Constitution approved
2007 surge (Petraeus)
Saudi-Iran games - sectarian (identity) or balancing (security)?
Lustick - Supply Side War
Gauss - motivated & cognitive biases
Intelligence failures
Democratization
Oil
WMD - even if low probility, overwhelmingly high risks
Near enemy & far enemy
Ideology
Economy
Power
Values versus Interests
Tragedy of the commons? Or traditional sovereignty issue?
Proliferation
Origins
Nations are imagined communities of people, including some and excluding others.
States are ... ?
Thinking systematically about conflict and cooperation
Exceptional(-ism)
texts:
Ray Hinnebusch on identities
Legrenzi & Calculli on the regional security order
Stephen Walt on balancing against threat*
Sorli et al on why so much conflict*
Greg Gause on regional subsystems*
Power matters, but inflected by perceptions, which can draw on identity factors
Review of four books, including Walt's
Argues four principles necessary to explain regional system
Anarchy of formal equals is contested by hierarchy based on Arabism or Islamism
Interaction of global & regional polarity
Changing nature of state-society relations in units that make up system
Region's level of economic integration
Consequences of identities mismatching states?
Separatism, irredentism, civil war, colonialism, ethnic cleansing...
Do identities drive interests or interests wield identities?
Ethnic
Religious
Sectarian
Local
Tribal
National
Ideological
Pan-Arabism
Pan-Islamism
"We can assume that the national interest of Arab states is structured in a relationship of absolute identity with regime's interests (that is, the interests of political elites), which can be strictly conceptualized as the preservation of power" (in Fawcett 3rd ed., 206-7)
jamlakiyah
disconnections between form and content
legitimation crises
what drives foreign & security policy? external or internal forces?
Ayoob 634
"identity is not enough: if states feel threatened by Israel or Iran, or even by a drop in oil prices, the politics of identity will not save them; there must also be compelling material reasons to act" (Fawcett)
Discovery
Exploitation
Britain in Iran and Iraq
ARAMCO
OPEC
Foundation - Abdullah Tariki, Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonso; Petroleum Summits
The ‘oil weapon’ and OAPEC: 1973 – European supplies at risk
Price and supply stability
Rentier States
The pathology of oil
Non-oil rents
Overcoming the curse?
King Fahd “we, too, are a developing country”

Oil Curse
Rashid Khalidi –
Palestinian Identity
(Columbia, 2000) argues for distinctive Palestinian identity from late Ottoman times
Advocates of “Jordanian solution” and others deny any distinctiveness
Whatever the history, the course of the conflict and struggle most certainly produced a distinctive identity by the 1960s, and probably the 1930s.

Arab or Palestinian nationalism?

Zionism = colonialism (Rashid Rida, ‘Tiberias’)
Collaboration, land sales
Mirror of Zionist claims of ‘uplift’
Appeals to Wilsonian principles and League of Nations
King-Crane commission
But the Zionists can appeal to the same principles: “the claims of appetite versus the claims of starvation”

Arab reactions to early settlement

“We are facing an elemental calamity, a kind of social earthquake. Three generations of Jewish thinkers and Zionists ... have come to the conclusion that the cause of our suffering is the very fact ... that we are everywhere a minority. It is not the anti-Semitism of men; it is, above all, the anti-Semitism of things, the inherent xenophobia of the body social or the body economic under which we suffer”

Jabotinsky’s structural account of the Jewish dilemma

Count Stanislaw de Clermont-Tonnerre, speaking on behalf of Jewish emancipation at the December 1789 French National Assembly session:

As a nation the Jews must be denied everything, as individuals they must be granted everything; their judges can no longer be recognized; their recourse must be to our own exclusively; legal protection for the doubtful laws by which Jewish corporate existence is maintained must end; they cannot be allowed to create a political body or a separate order within the state; it is necessary that they be citizens individually

The modern nation-state and the problem of minorities

Theodor Herzl
World Zionist Organization
European anti-semitism; Dreyfus affair
Liberal progressive
Jabotinsky
‘Revisionist Movement’
Maximalist, advocates use of force

Two founding figures of political Zionism

Zionism & Palestinian Nationalism

What is the relative importance of the following factors in giving modern political Zionism its particular features?
Religion
Rise of European nationalism
Rise of the modern nation-state
(related to these two: rise of political anti-semitism)
Decline/change/collapse of the Ottoman Empire
Arab hostility
Colonialism

Questions

WZO versus Jews in the Yishuv
Integrationists, liberal progressives, nationalists
Change wrought by 1908 (Young Turks), WWI, Mandate
CUP nationalism, repression of Arabs, Armenians and others, end of multi-national Ottoman Empire, provokes mirror-image response from minorities.
Creates
minorities.

Differing perspectives

Dreyfus Affair

Ideas & Institutions
history
religion
identities
ideologies
norms
laws & treaties

Power,
Modern descendents of Isaac & Ismail?
See also the writings of Hannah Arendt on statelessness
"the mutuality of threat/fear felt among the members toward each other" (Gause 2010, 3)
role of institutions?
resource questions?
according to Gause - do we agree?
"ideas can affect leaders' perceptions of their material interests. Transnational ideas about identity and politics can be power resources for ambitious leaders and can be threats to the regimes against which they are directed. It is only when those ideas are matched to the tangible power resources available to a state or political group that they become drivers in security decision-making" (Gause 2010, 12)
"After the attacks of 9/11, the Bush administration fundamentally changed the purpose of American policy in the Persian Gulf. Changing the status quo, including the domestic political arrangements of Gulf states, replaced preserving it" (Gause 2010, 14)
Implications and outcomes today?
Note key role of UNSC. Resolutions from 660, 661 through 678 to 687, 688 and beyond.
http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/1990.shtml
"hypocrisy, skullduggery, and unsolved puzzles" (Gause 2010, 121)
1995 UNSCR 986
"Oil For Food"
1999 UNSCR 1284
ends limits on oil sales;
UNMOVIC
1998 UNSCOM collapse: Desert Fox
"dual containment" of Iraq & Iran under Clinton
https://groups.diigo.com/group/international-politics-of-the-middle-east/content/saudi-arabia-becomes-world-s-biggest-defense-importer-13481713
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/02/the-gun-smugglers-lament-libya-zawiya-osama-kubbar-qatar-weapons-arms-proxy/
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/01/eu-arms-exports-libya
http://www.salon.com/2011/03/23/us_libya_arms_training/
Washington Post
Libya
http://eeas.europa.eu/iran/index_en.htm

End of history? Triumph of the West?
Globalization = westernization?
Clash of civilizations? (see GWOT Feb 14)
1979, 1991, 2001, or 2011 as crucial turning points?


Grand Narratives:
Anti-communism, Oil, Israel
"Middle Eastern policy is decisively shaped by domestic US politics" (Hudson in Fawcett)
U.S. priorities:
To what extent have the U.S. and radical Islamist groups acted as if the "clash of civilizations" explains world politics after the Cold War?
Trade-offs
direct responses
and
environmental approaches
Which did GWB administration pursue?
Which has Obama administration pursued?
(2007)
https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-107publ40/pdf/PLAW-107publ40.pdf

1948
NB consequences for Arab states of loss of 1948. Coups in Syria (1949), Egypt (1952), Iraq (1958). Assassination of King Abdullah (1951).
What were US & USSR interests?
Iran & Turkey
Baghdad Pact
(anti-terrorism)
next time...
non-state actors
Petro-politics
"religio-politics"
p. 98 5 factors
Full transcript